Model tweets

[winterof79]

John Hammond‏ @hammondweather 23m23 minutes ago

 

 

 

John Hammond Retweeted weathertrending

Much more likely later next week when trend is much colder #uksnowhttps://twitter.com/weathertrending/status/933078456111435779 …

John Hammond added,

weathertrending @weathertrending

Some #weatherapps are indicating #uksnow Friday night into Saturday across parts of lowland southern Britain. At the moment this is possible but UNLIKELY. A lot of marginal factors would have to come together... 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Daniel*]

 

[Blessed Weather]

 

[Blessed Weather]

Regarding my post above - when I originally posted that tweet it contained 3 diagrams and appeared as such. I don't know what's happened now, but if you wish to see the diagrams click on the #energy pic.twitter.com/K56HfXHsR9 link above.

[Daniel*]

!!

 

[Summer Sun]

 

 

 

[Weather-history]

Wow

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[karlos1983]

interesting 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Spah1]

 

[Spah1]

 

[Spah1]

 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

 

That seems like a contradiction - usually eastern US troughing increases the strength of the jet and flattens-out the flow in our part of the NH.

[Summer Sun]

 

[mountain shadow]

52 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

That seems like a contradiction - usually eastern US troughing increases the strength of the jet and flattens-out the flow in our part of the NH.

That all depends on the long wave pattern, or is it the shortwaves!

[Yarmy]

56 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

That seems like a contradiction - usually eastern US troughing increases the strength of the jet and flattens-out the flow in our part of the NH.

The jet can be as strong as it wants as long as it's heading straight north into Greenland. But I am surprised by that tweet as it doesn't seem to tally with the longer range prognosis from the MetO and what we are hearing from those members with access to the extended ENS.

[joggs]

1 hour ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

That seems like a contradiction - usually eastern US troughing increases the strength of the jet and flattens-out the flow in our part of the NH.

Maybe a very amplified pattern instead of throughs moving west to east.

[Catacol]

54 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

The jet can be as strong as it wants as long as it's heading straight north into Greenland. But I am surprised by that tweet as it doesn't seem to tally with the longer range prognosis from the MetO and what we are hearing from those members with access to the extended ENS.

Long range met prediction is pretty cagey and I think UK met Nina predictions remain more stronger than other models - each of the last 3 months the depth of Nina in 3.4 has increased according to UKmet. My very layman's interpretation of that - and it ties in a bit with the NW forecast today - is that a Nina that strengthens is likely to override any signal for influence from blocking to the north. But they sensibly remain cagey on it because their Nina forecast may end up being overly aggressive.

However the stratospheric disruption forecast is liable to create all kinds of uncertainty. Should vortex intensification be seriously disrupted, combined with the eQBO, then a question mark must appear over the strength of Nina westerlies and actually whether we see instead a pattern more seriously impacted by Northern blocking and asian cold backing west. 

It's a fascinating situation... and the trend, almost by the day at the moment, is to see signs of a blocking pattern in the longer term increase. The current cold snap/spell was forecast and is a pleasing start... and I still think a return to some kind of westerly pattern is likely as we go through December... but it is already later than expected - keeps getting put back and one has to wonder whether it might end up being rather short lived before the MJO hits hit another 7 - 8 - 1 orbit and more vortex disruption occurs. Most interesting start to winter and development of patterns for the UK in many years. In fact the longer term uncertainty makes this better model watching than 2010 when actually the bulk of opinion was that Dec 2010 wouldnt be followed by a cold Jan/Feb... which turned out to be true.

[Summer Sun]

 

[Spah1]

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[tynevalleysnow]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

 

No anomaly here though