Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[karyo]

Eastern Scotland looks like the place to be later next week. -10 uppers and a southeasterly flow bringing snow showers.

[BARRY]

12z is really showing promise @ in the reliable 

[AWD]

A west/south west vs east/north east battle at T96 on the 12z GFS;

Very cold 850hpa air midlands northwards.

Bonechilling dewpoints from the midlands northwards wards.

Cold, perhaps some ice days, from the midlands northwards & east of Hampshire.

PPN heading into Ireland & the extreme SW mixing out the colder continental airmass with rain here at this stage.  

Personally not looking any further into any Op run for now for detail described above as it is all very finely balanced.

[Singularity]

Well GFS is determined to keep more of a tail of lower heights extending NW from the UK as the trough disrupts - but while this lifts the upper cold out from the south a bit, it helps to keep the jet diving under rather than over the high; of the sliding low cuts off quickly then the jet just finds a new path going NE.

The 12z GFS of yesterday had the tail but aligned S-N which wasn't as good for allowing the big block to hold away going forward. We've come a long way in 24 hours but will the Euros continue to favour a quick cut off of the low this evening? 

[snowray]

On 2/4/2017 at 16:06, Seasonality said:

 

UKMO leading the way again at T120.

Edited February 5, 2017 by snowray
cant get rid of an old post

[That ECM]

Gfs is good but look at this from the ukmo at t120. Boooodifulll!

[Matty M]

UKMO 120hrs is a good chart. Nice clean chart. GFS looks very mess to the SW.

 

[Ali1977]

06z -8c uppers at 150, 12z 2c uppers!! Mmm, just proves small changes make huge differences.

UKMO looking better though

[chicken soup]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Gfs is good but look at this from the ukmo at t120. Boooodifulll!

Bootiful but dry

[Neilsouth]

2 minutes ago, snowray said:

UKMO leading the way again at T120.

 

Much much better and I must say UKMO has been pretty spot on throughout this winter so far for the short term. Lets hope it holds true

[Panayiotis]

GFS at 150hrs shows the strength of the jet stream decreasing quite significantly, with some of it heading slightly SE at the base of Greenland- good news if you dont want the PV to go over the high like it did in the 06z:

12z                        06Z

Edited February 5, 2017 by Panayiotis

[That ECM]

Just now, chicken soup said:

Bootiful but dry

To far out for that detail and depends which part of the uk people are in but it wouldn't be dry for all imo. No point worrying or looking for that kind of detail unless you want to drive yourself bananas

[Man With Beard]

3 minutes ago, Matty M said:

UKMO 120hrs is a good chart. Nice clean chart. GFS looks very mess to the SW.

 

This will not be dry on the east coast. That's a direct hit from the cold pool on N England and Scotland. The whole of E Coast will see snow showers, I'd think.

GFS, meanwhile, might produce a second wave from the easterly beyond T150. What an afternoon already.

[Matty M]

UK GM 144 is a very cold chart.

 

Snow showers hitting east coast of Ireland too

 

[chionomaniac]

6 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Bootiful but dry

East Coast from the Wash northwards should see wintry showers turning increasingly to snow in that set up.

It will be interesting to see the 850 temps later. Here are the UKMO 00Z from this morning -6ºC isotherm brushing the east coast. Move that on 12 hrs...

 

Edited February 5, 2017 by chionomaniac

[Ali1977]

Yes please UKMO, much better and as I mentioned earlier ref the WAA, look at it coming in to the North of scotland, should help intensify the easterlies and reinforce the Scandy high.

Edited February 5, 2017 by Ali1977

[Singularity]

Tiniest of lows dropping S around +174 to help entice the Scandi block to ridge west.

Curious disturbance loitering in the North Sea - join forces with the teeny low please! 

[Wilxy]

Much better than GFS!

Still no agreement on how much energy is going over the top, so its onto the ECM next!

[Duane S.]

The less impressive uppers on show on the GFS are because of the not so clean breakaway of the energy to our NW. Not to be discounted but should be transient at least.

As for the earlier comment reference the UKMO +120 being dry. Really? Maybe if you live in Blackburn but not for a large swathe of other areas of the UK. That will bring snow showers to many.

 

Oh my, just seen the UKMO +144. VERY easy on the eye indeed!

Edited February 5, 2017 by s4lancia

[SMU]

Ukmo 144 has between -8c (SE) & -10 ( midlands ) & an area of snow...

[feb1991blizzard]

The UKMO is a stonker for Central and Southern England, a curve in the isobars and -9c uppers, snowfall I would imagine.

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Ukmo 144 has between -8c (SE) & -10 ( midlands ) & an area of snow...

As has the GEM but diff set up 

I have a feeling we'll get a stonking ECM!! 

Edited February 5, 2017 by Ali1977

[Summer Sun]

GEM looking a bit nippy too

[Weathizard]

High pressure is just too close by no matter what we seem to do! IMO a slightly disappointing 12z after this mornings effort.

[Buzz]

17 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Bootiful but dry

How many times must we repeat the following: get the cold in first then wait for snow in favourable locations ..... remember also that various "features" often pop up at extremely short notice, expecting those to appear on model output about 5 days hence is utterly futile.

So to summarise: COLD first then maybe SNOW. Okay?

Edited February 5, 2017 by Buzz