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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
2 minutes ago, TEITS said:

I see the opposite. Note the massive shift NW of the high towards Svalbard compared with the 0Z. This could make a big difference further into the run.

I agree looks much further N and W

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks to be going a bit pete tong at 120 though, temps above freezing across the south at night  as the scandy high gets shunted north..:nonono:

Id rather it go North than south this run is heaps better for longer term.:D

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Posted
  • Location: Truro
  • Weather Preferences: winter and summer
  • Location: Truro

At 138 we see the scandi high drifting further north and not sinking into Eastern Europe. A positive for me.

IMG_0994.PNG

Edited by Argyle1980
Adding evidence
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Huge improvements at 144.  Cold marching westwards, the deep cold getting tantalisingly close.  WIll it make it?

gfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.2a64129652549a0a821a508423298432.pnggfsnh-1-144.thumb.png.74fb25a4fe169ee98398c5571b67b4b8.png

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

The little low SM mentioned about to feed in some snow flurries

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And it's cold - everywhere

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Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

:cold: UPGRADES AT LAST!

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gfs-1-150.png

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

So, just to be clear: we have an upgrade and a downgrade, and although it's gone pete tong, it hasn't really?:D

Totally agree lol, in my small experience this is a developing situation and the models always break down the highs far to quickly and in reality they are a lot stronger and more stubborn that they first appear. Just my opinion of course

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Just now, Steve Murr said:

The beast is coming on the 06z

Still looks it'll get squashed , but that is way FI as proved by the changes so early in this run. A long drawn cold Easterly here though, some severe frosts where we've had a flurry or two 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Just now, booferking said:

Could you tell me why 06z is a mess when you compare it to 12z, its a massive step in the right direction???

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I don't think he means mess as in a poor run - just lots of possibilities 

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

Much better run this. Heights further north, decent 850s, less energy going north. First run for ages where I've not thought it all to be a bit meh...

Edit by 180 loads of energy going over the top. Hopefully overdone but still better in short term with some snow possibilities

Edited by Jason M
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Hear comes the errrrm - cold air from the west. Let the battle of the cold air begin - only one winner.

IMG_4199.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
14 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Still looks it'll get squashed , but that is way FI as proved by the changes so early in this run. A long drawn cold Easterly here though, some severe frosts where we've had a flurry or two 

At what point do we start talking sea effect snow/streamers - cold in place, warm north sea, increased winds needed for this to happen?

Edited by Daryl Dixon
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

This could get interesting, as in battleground, although there is also cold air moving in from the west here.

gfs-0-192.png

gfs-1-192.png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Fascinating stuff from gfs!

Early on its a big upgrade, we lose the colder uppers briefly and then the scandy high re asserts itself.

Wouldnt like to be writing the meto update today!!

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

How many updates to folks need to see to understand the trend direction of travel. ?

still another 24 hrs imho until the true picture and potential to t240 is reflected in the models 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Best thing about this run is the gfs modeling the scandi high and coming to terms with the fact that it will be there for awhile and won't get sunk by energy going over the top. We are miles away from fine details but the bigger picture has come on board and accepted by the gfs.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Equals snow all the way for the west.:)

Yup there you have it.:D

gfs-2-216.png

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