Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[feb1991blizzard]

Big upgrade on 0z, UKMO and GFS singing from same hymn sheet now, -8c isotherm right across to west on GFS, more importantly IMO (as first E'ly was never going to produce a really potent convective setup) is there is so much more room for error going forward.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Big upgrade on 0z, UKMO and GFS singing from same hymn sheet now, -8c isotherm right across to west on GFS, more importantly IMO (as first E'ly was never going to produce a really potent convective setup) is there is so much more room for error going forward.

Yes there is potential going forward...less of a sinking look to the HP. The UKMO has little of a cold pool for the initially E'ly attempt but I'm looking beyond this first attempt now and have been for a day or two.

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yes there is potential going forward...less of a sinking look to the HP. The UKMO has little of a cold pool for the initially E'ly attempt but I'm looking beyond this first attempt now and have been for a day or two.

Slight problem though, the angle of the attack into the PV and less potent wave 2 into the strat will be on this run, guessing the dreamy FI wont occur on this run.

[feb1991blizzard]

My major worry with the split attempt is that the Greenland lobe will be too powerful and far East, yes the Atlantic will keep hitting that brick wall, but will the brick wall be too far East for us is the question?

 

I'm hoping the GEFS suite is just a rogue suite (very messy), I don't like it at all.

Edited February 5, 2017 by feb1991blizzard

[That ECM]

Good consistency from ecm out t120. We have a scandi high of 1045 at t48. T168 will be of concern to many tho. Let evolve would be the best idea imo. I hope ba has a cushion for that fence as he still going to be on it for awhile yet I would guess.

Edited February 5, 2017 by That ECM

[Weathizard]

Lack of posts about the ECM says it all, what a complete snooze fest. Same pattern as the rest of winter, high pressure domination

[Ali1977]

48 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Lack of posts about the ECM says it all, what a complete snooze fest. Same pattern as the rest of winter, high pressure domination

It is starting to look a little boring (for those who like snow) the high just wants to sink away from Northen Scandy , no sign of SSW or MJO assistance on that ECM run - hopefully another warm outlier 

The GFS may have a better chance of giving us a few flurries as the low to the south interacts with the cold E flow.

Edited February 5, 2017 by Ali1977

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Lack of posts about the ECM says it all, what a complete snooze fest. Same pattern as the rest of winter, high pressure domination

Lack of posts because it's 07.16 on a sunday maybe 

Ecm 00z becomes blocked and even when we lose the cold uppers it's still surface cold with widespread frosts and probably some freezing fog..anyway, it's still an evolving situation so no need for knee jerk reactions to one op run!

[Weathizard]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Lack of posts because it's 07.16 on a sunday maybe 

Ecm 00z becomes blocked and even when we lose the cold uppers it's still surface cold with widespread frosts and probably some freezing fog..anyway, it's still an evolving situation so no need for knee jerk reactions to one op run!

With respect, it's not a knee jerk reaction and it's not just one op run either: looking through the GEFS this is the most favoured outcome and the sinking/saggy high has been shown far more than any significant easterly.

We are still in the game as always with these setups as the models do struggle but realistically we are going to need a second bite at the cherry if we are going to secure a proper easterly IMO

Edited February 5, 2017 by Weathizard

[Man With Beard]

Looking further ahead, the PV reforms convincingly at D10 - the SSW failed to kill it. Our Scandi High returns to being more of a MLB. However, the flow continues to be from the vicinity of Romania/Turkey, where it is once again utterly freezing, so the direction may still be of use for snowy cold in the D10-15 realm. Still could lead to something better with help from MJO.

Closer though, a kink in the flow approaches the E coast at T144 on many charts. Could produce something. Otherwise I'm not really seeing where snow will come from unless the GFS is correct in keeping the depression to the SW closer to us.

[Weather-history]

26 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Lack of posts about the ECM says it all, what a complete snooze fest. Same pattern as the rest of winter, high pressure domination

That's what you get with high pressure sat near or over the UK, not a lot happens. That's true with a period of high pressure anytime of the year. 

High pressures sat near or over the UK for a length of time are boring.  Only things going for them is how low the minima can go in the cold season and how high the maxima can go in the warmer season or those occasions when you can get wide temperature variations as what happened during February 2008. 

[Gustywind]

Too much of a south easterly element to the winds across all models so we struggle to get the really cold uppers across us. ECM is particularly frustrating in this respect with very mediocre upper air cold for most of England and Wales.

[Ben Lewis]

8 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

That's what you get with high pressure sat near or over the UK, not a lot happens. That's true with a period of high pressure anytime of the year. 

High pressures sat near or over the UK for a length of time are boring.  Only things going for them is how low the minima can go in the cold season and how high the maxima can go in the warmer season or those occasions when you can get wide temperature variations as what happened during February 2008. 

Not to mention the Dry and sometimes sunny days they can give us. 

Boring for who? For those of us that take part in outdoor activities and have dogs to walk it's ideal. I mean if it isn't high pressure it's Atlantic dross. 

ECM not great on the eyes this morning for a good Easterly set up. 

[Seasonality]

33 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

With respect, it's not a knee jerk reaction and it's not just one op run either: looking through the GEFS this is the most favoured outcome and the sinking/saggy high has been shown far more than any significant easterly.

We are still in the game as always with these setups as the models do struggle but realistically we are going to need a second bite at the cherry if we are going to secure a proper easterly IMO

Bite of the cherry lol. Is there building blocks and potential too? Very dull ECM it must be said. Agree that its getting to lipstick on a pig time.

[Weather-history]

8 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Not to mention the Dry and sometimes sunny days they can give us. 

Boring for who? For those of us that take part in outdoor activities and have dogs to walk it's ideal. I mean if it isn't high pressure it's Atlantic dross. 

ECM not great on the eyes this morning for a good Easterly set up. 

I'm talking meteorologically, you are talking about their usefulness in outdoor activities etc. 

 

[mb018538]

Looks a bit boring to me too...ensemble mean back above -5, no really cold runs appearing anywhere on there now (as there were a couple of days ago). May get a few flakes wafting around but that'll be it.

[SteveB]

I think it's safe to say we are heading  for another cold high, yes snow would have been wonderful, but dry settled and cold (while boring) in my opinion is far bet than wet and windy.

Hopefully the dry theme continues into March & maybe start to warm up a bit.

[Matthew.]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Looks a bit boring to me too...ensemble mean back above -5, no really cold runs appearing anywhere on there now (as there were a couple of days ago). May get a few flakes wafting around but that'll be it.

Disappointing for those below the midlands for cold and dry and grey and cold for most other places.

[danthetan]

24 minutes ago, Gustywind said:

Too much of a south easterly element to the winds across all models so we struggle to get the really cold uppers across us. ECM is particularly frustrating in this respect with very mediocre upper air cold for most of England and Wales.

The flow looks to be a slight south easterly at 500mb but if you look at the fax charts for surface flow which is what effects us at the surface the winds are easterly. 

[Guest]

 DAILY EUROPEAN TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE CHECK No.3  – FURTHER EXCELLENT PROGRESS

In the build up to phase 1 of next week’s widely predicted cold spell, I feel that it will be useful to keep up-to-date with the current and trending temperature and pressure changes in Europe. I will try to produce these on a daily basis for the next few days. This should help to show if the pattern is likely to evolve favourably (for coldies) and to monitor the extent of the cold that we might expect.

Now, I shall pick up from my second “check” on page 81. This took us to February 4th.

European Surface Temperature Charts:

                     Current "live"                                        Feb 5th 0650                                        Feb 4th    1250                                          Feb 4th  0650                                         Feb 3rd 1250

        

Note that it is important to allow for min/max temps when comparing the charts. The 0650s are usually close to the minimums and the 1250s are usually close to maximums.

COMMENT:   The good news is that the deep cold (purple) over north-west Russia is slowly intensifying and very importantly it is taking on a new “east-north-east  to west-south-west  shape  - instead of north to south. The temps are slightly less low on the south side of the pool  but lower to the north. It is edging slowly westwards. All this can be seen by comparing the two "0650" and the two "1250" charts. This is a key area to watch over the next few days as the predicted synoptic pattern develops. Further south and west, the area of lighter blues is also becoming more extensive again        

GFS 6z February 5th T+6 European Charts: 

                2m Surface Temps                                       850 Temps                                           500 hPa Temps

    

COMMENT:  We can compare today's charts (above) with yesterday's (below). The surface temps in the purple shades has intensified with the area of sub -20c surface temps marching towards northern Scandinavia. The pool of sub -20c 850s has also expanded with a strong push towards Scandinavia. With the developing synoptic pattern (see below) this progression will almost certainly continue. The "green" warmer area to our north continues to be squeezed out and has almost disappeared.

GFS 6z February 4th T+6 European Charts: 

                2m Surface Temps                                        850 Temps                                         500 hPa Temps

     

 

European Surface Pressure Charts:

                   Current "live”                                         Feb 5th 0650                                          Feb 4th    1850                                         Feb 4th  0650                   

      

 Current Met Office Fax: 0600 Feb 5th                GFS 6z February 5th T+6                      GFS 6z February 4th T+6                                        

        

COMMENT:   For the first time we can properly see the new cell of HP building down from the north off the north-west Russian coast. It is ridging south-westwards into Scandinavia. The old southern cell of HP has been pushed further east. You can see the two LPs to the south already undercutting and supporting the HP block. All this bodes well for later on.

Overall, the building blocks are there and all of my indicators are moving in the right direction for coldies. The “easterly” is on its way!  I will be back with my full weekly report this evening, which I shall  thoroughly enjoy writing up during today.

 

                    

Edited February 5, 2017 by Guest
Correcting typos and to ensure that all the links and charts work properly.

[SLEETY]

I would wait a few more runs yet before writing off this easterly lots of negative posts here today  ,the models never model an easterly correctly ,in all the years I've been watching the outputs 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Can't believe what I'm seeing. At 72 hours out, it seems as if the conclusion has been made as if it has already happened  judging by some posts. 

72+ hours is a long time with these types of scenarios. It's only by a fine margin that we are missing out on -8 uppers crossing from Denmark and Norway. 

Who's to say that we won't get frontal snowfall encroaching from the west and southwest too at some point. Still opportunities for some at least to see a little bit of snowfall out of this. Watching how things develop now and how the heights currently behave over the Mediterranean will have implications massively on the next 3-5 days. Let's just watch it unfold! 

[SMU]

Morning

A lot of ECM lemmings here this morning -perhaps many missed last nights post showing that it has been terrible in the last 5 days - classic really in being over progressive...

let things develop- every day as things have got closer the uppers have got modelled  colder - even the ECM has a pool of -9 air pushing SW into wales & the NW at day 5-6 yet people worried about day 8/9/10

so much flapping on here this morning the forums going to take off...

[JamesL]

5 minutes ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

 DAILY EUROPEAN TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE CHECK No.3  – FURTHER EXCELLENT PROGRESS

In the build up to phase 1 of next week’s “probable” cold spell, I feel that it will be useful to keep up-to-date with the current and trending  temperature and pressure changes in Europe. I will try to produce these on a daily basis for the next few days. This should help to show if the pattern is likely to evolve favourably (for coldies) and to monitor the extent of the cold that we might expect.

Now, I shall pick up from my first “check” on page 81. This took us to February 4th.

European Surface Temperature Charts:

                     Current "live"                                        Feb 5th 0650                                        Feb 4th    1250                                          Feb 4th  0650                                         Feb 3rd 1250

        

Note that it is important to allow for min/max temps when comparing the charts. The 0650s are usually close to the minimums and the 1250s are usually close to maximums.

COMMENT:   The good news is that the deep cold (purple) over north-west Russia is slowly intensifying and very importantly it is taking on a new “east-north-east  to west-south-west  shape  - instead of north to south. The temps are slightly less low on the south side of the pool  but lower to the north. It is edging slowly westwards. All this can be seen by comparing the two "0650" and the two "1250" charts. This is really important and a key area to watch over the next few days as the predicted synoptic pattern develops. Further south and west, the area of lighter blues is also becoming more extensive again        

GFS 6z February 5th T+6 European Charts: 

                2m Surface Temps                                       850 Temps                                           500 hPa Temps

    

COMMENT:  We can compare today's charts (above) with yesterday's (below). The surface temps in the purple shades has intensified with the area of sub -20c surface temps marching towards northern Scandinavia. The pool of sub -20c 850s has also expanded with a strong push towards Scandinavia. With the developing synoptic pattern (see below) this progression will almost certainly continue. The "green" warmer area to our north continues to be squeezed out and has almost disappeared.

GFS 6z February 4th T+6 European Charts: 

                2m Surface Temps                                        850 Temps                                         500 hPa Temps

     

 

European Surface Pressure Charts:

                   Current "live”                                         Feb 5th 0650                                          Feb 4th    1850                                         Feb 4th  0650                   

      

 Current Met Office Fax: 0600 Feb 5th                GFS 6z February 5th T+6                      GFS 6z February 4th T+6                                        

        

COMMENT:   For the first time we can properly see the new cell of HP building down from north off the north-west Russian coast. It is ridging south-westwards into Scandinavia. The old southern cell of HP has been pushed further east. You can see the two LPs to the south already undercutting and supporting the HP block. All this bodes well for later on.

Overall, the building blocks are there and all of my indicators are moving in the right direction for coldies. The “easterly” is on its way!  I will be back with my full weekly report this evening, which I shall  thoroughly enjoy writing up during today.

 

                    

It's fascinating watching this spell unfold in this way. Whether it ends up a damp squib or delivers snow, it's really interesting. And very useful for future pushes from the east.

Thank you for taking the time each day for doing these very informative posts.

James 

[Ali1977]

ECM meanat 144 looks pretty good