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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Ringwood, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Ringwood, Hampshire

Nice retrogression of high in FI, hopefully this shows in the morning 

gfs.thumb.png.c036f12d3dc5f3eac1b0a8f44c543d56.png

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The fax charts look a little underwhelming tonight for the end of next week.

I didn't think they went out to 168 ? Where can I find them, I can see the 120 ( Wednesday) but that's it

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

A recurring theme now, this the best of the lot but this sort of wave break has happened 3 out of 4 runs in a row now.

npst30.png

 

I wonder if BA knows if this has any credence on the ECM EPS mean?

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

Computer says no!

Ends up with MLB yet again. I'm thinking the models might be trying to tell us something!! There is obviously a background signal of some sort that isn't going to allow sustained heights at high latitude in our part of the world.

Maybe the morning will bring better news but IMHO this ones moving away from us.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Jason M
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
3 hours ago, MildCarlilse said:

I'm curious why this chart is creating so much excitement...

ECH1-120.GIFa.png.387d4ca332cf8a212461278bc3b35ab4.thumb.png.df0787eb784c395355ba135cab4463f6.png

 

 

 

bracka20091218.thumb.gif.56da3a55d17cf78ef8a9d949e23070ab.gif... when this is really the business?

Hi and welcome to this zany forum :) Very good first post by the way. Puts things into perspective. The up coming weather beats mild mush south westerlies any day but it is not going to be anything special by any stretch of the imagination. I think the last couple of days on here have highlighted just how snow starved we have become over the last 4 years lol.

Edited by blizzard81
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

18z GFS could have added an extra trough disruption and sliding trough for the weekend but having developed such a vigorous low from the previous one and taken it so far NE it spends the rest of the run trying to recover the situation. By day 16 it's just about there...! 

The trend with the overall NH setup is good - here's hoping it continues nice and smoothly tomorrow - and that the Euro models are right to keep LP further SW and allow in more of an easterly next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

The trend over the last 48hrs has been to turn a potential easterly into an almost certain south easterly in 6 to 7 days time. The difference between an easterly and a south easterly is immense. Easterlies can equal convective snow, south easterlies equal cold but dry. In time, south easterlies bring in higher upper temps from south eastern europe. They really are two different animals. 

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

At least the 12 EC high res stays tight to the mean to day 10, as the run brings in a colder easterly flow at day 10 whilst the GFS op (blue) perhaps warming it up too much with the greater Atlantic influence.

IMG_0069.thumb.GIF.5254c5ff6b7c2f87f49f96ba26f15a1d.GIF

The moral of the story is the GFS can often be too progressive at sinking blocks to the NE shutting down the cold flow and introducing the Atlantic cyclonic SWly flow. 18z backtrack to more blocked now.

Plenty of mileage out of the block and cold air advection west over coming days I think ...

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

At least the 12 EC high res stays tight to the mean to day 10, as the run brings in a colder easterly flow at day 10 whilst the GFS op (blue) perhaps warming it up too much with the greater Atlantic influence.

IMG_0069.thumb.GIF.5254c5ff6b7c2f87f49f96ba26f15a1d.GIF

The moral of the story is the GFS can often be too progressive at sinking blocks to the NE shutting down the cold flow and introducing the Atlantic cyclonic SWly flow. 18z backtrack to more blocked now.

Plenty of mileage out of the block and cold air advection west over coming days I think ...

I agree with your general assessment but it now looks to be a south easterly as opposed to an easterly.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Speaking in riddles on here is common place. 

But the thing that makes me pmsl' is the divulge run-run op' that is of zero consequence when minor equate of meteorological synoptic s have major implementation for a maritime-island. 

And while 'some' will reiterate' tweets ans other social media quotations id rather refrain. 

I'll back my assumptions based 'and finalised on compare to -back- previous via model basis compare. 

 

I'll post/elaborate on charts/snapshot s..spilt/1987-- current modeling. 

 

And just to suggest current scenario are equilateral to past...

 

And post is more than perceived for a possible comparable to the above mentioned- via easterly incursion. 

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I agree with your general assessment but it now looks to be a south easterly as opposed to an easterly.

Depends what model and time frames you look at, winds seem to swing between easterly and southeasterly, don't be fooled by the pressure contours, as winds tend not to always blow parrallel to them either.

Either way, both cold directions - SEly has advantage of shorter sea track if near continent is cold, though greater risk of less cold air mixing in from S Europe.

But it's also looking dry from either direction bar some flurries, without deep cold pool moving west or Atlantic fronts pushing up against the cold and dry air.

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

The trend is pretty much the same, nobody knows weather it will be an easterly or south easterly yet, the main thing is to get that pattern. At the end of the day we can't say for sure what will happen Monday let alone late next week. Keep calm people it's all looking up for now to get that cold air in place and see what develops nearer the time. Enjoy

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

The gfs ens are really showing a much colder trend from around the 18th Feb. Very consistent on this now.

Edited by blizzard81
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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
18 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Depends what model and time frames you look at, winds seem to swing between easterly and southeasterly, don't be fooled by the pressure contours, as winds tend not to always blow parrallel to them either.

Either way, both cold directions - SEly has advantage of shorter sea track if near continent is cold, though greater risk of less cold air mixing in from S Europe.

But it's also looking dry from either direction bar some flurries, without deep cold pool moving west or Atlantic fronts pushing up against the cold and dry air.

Yes, 144 hours on latest run ..

gfs-0-144_zxq3.png

wind direction and thetaE for same timeframe.

gfs-14-144_bef1.png    gfs-6-144_acb0.png

There will be a raw windchill at the surface but it doesn't produce the goods that people are looking for.

 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Pert-2 gfs ens..

Highlights the ramifications' for angular/placement of main cell hp.

Laughable it maybe. But such minimal alignment and state of situ is PARAMOUNT to advection and final infer of cold top-middle- bottom. 

And any upper air overheads (850 hpa) cannot possibly be determined until approximately +42/46 hrs.

Reiterated;: diversión is complexof main player Hp' placement...

So check and 'guess' on precipitation'and exact of cold calculations are non worthy atm..

Given bigger picture prognosis. 

However the coldest most interesting part of winter heralds. 

gens-2-1-192.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
20 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The gfs ens are really showing a much colder trend from around the 18th Feb. Very consistent on this now.

Shown here (this at day16)...Fairly significant signal for the Greenland heights and slight hints of European troughing

gensnh-21-5-384.png

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Shown here (this at day16)...Fairly significant signal for the Greenland heights and slight hints of European troughing

gensnh-21-5-384.png

I don't get why there isn't meltdown over this! Easily some of the best height anomalies I've ever seen in order to get us some real cold! 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Just now, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

I don't get why there isn't meltdown over this! Easily some of the best height anomalies I've ever seen in order to get us some real cold! 

Aye, I'm beginning to think this may be a more prolonged below average spell when all said and done. Obviously, the further towards March we go, 'below average' cuts the mustard less and less for the south. However, I think we stand a fair chance of advecting some sufficient uppers at some point, in tandem with a more conducive height profile for convective or frontal activity...most of us crave snowfall after all.

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Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

Not been able to view the models in any detail over the last couple of days because I've been enjoying myself too much at Center Parcs (longleat) serious windchill when Friday's little low ripped through. I was a little concerned at a quick flick-through yesterday that things were getting downgraded but a good sift through the 3 big guns and their ensembles (where available) have been a nice read this evening. Very optimistic still for a cold turn post Wednesday next week.

 

UKMO @ 6 Days

UN144-21.GIF?04-18

 

ECM @ 6 Days

ECH1-144.GIF?04-0

GFS (18z) @ 6 days - same timeframe - didn't see the 12z

gfsnh-0-138.png?18

 

Encouraging to see the Scandi High rebuilding (possible retrogression to GH) even if it does appear to sink a little after its first incarnation.

GFS 18z - 10 Days

gfsnh-0-240.png?18

 

I've skimmed many a comment about cold and dry and the nuances between SE and Easterly airflow but HEY! This is so much better than the usual Zonal. We have a real chance here over the next few weeks of seeing something special, I'm reminded of Steve Murr's 3 cycles. Tonight's runs show we are in the game for all of them. We might fail the first hurdle but we're in for the next and the next. It's a good place to be for the snow-starved UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

850 temps at T+120 from UKMO not quite as cold as anticipated - but by T+144 the cold pool over Scandi will have moved westwards.

 

5896797f2774d_GHT850_EUROPA_120-1.thumb.png.6fd2230573e1317ed207c2d1725d5bd2.png

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Another westward shift by 132 and the Atlantic being held back to the NW, this is another step in the right direction.Colder with some snow flurries pretty much anywhere.

IMG_4188.PNG

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