Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[summer blizzard]

6 minutes ago, -uksnow- said:

 

And so our Scandi high wheel of fortune spins to deliver at day 10 - Agree with what NS is saying, a little help from the MJO with an increasingly better upstream picture may eventually land us a bullseye...

The problem with this run is that the high only gets sufficient support close to Italy (what is needed for longer fetch E/NE winds for the UK) towards the end of the run. This means that before then although we get the cold air, places away from the coast will struggle due to the ESE component early on (the angle of our coastline means no benefit). 

[Frank Trough]

5 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Pendulum swinging back to an old school easterly where models (GFS worst offender) will suggest atlantic breakdowns only to back track in the 0-96 hr range.

Whether or not it's quite right for a snowy cold spell remains to be seen but it does look like we will have plenty of cold at the surface and as others have stated, get the cold entrenched and its likely that snow events will pop up, sometimes at very short notice.

 

It looks like a bit of a grey misery fest on the ecm? Or will it be clear and frosty? 

It still looks like a wait for anything snowy but there is no doubt we are still in the game for a while. That blocking isn't going anywhere fast.

and easy to forget that a westerly fest was being advertised not long ago. 

[summer blizzard]

1 minute ago, Certain kind of fool said:

It looks like a bit of a grey misery fest on the ecm? Or will it be clear and frosty? 

It still looks like a wait for anything snowy but there is no doubt we are still in the game for a while. That blocking isn't going anywhere fast.

and easy to forget that a westerly fest was being advertised not long ago. 

The air is cold enough that it would probably generate clear skies and shower activity (though as i mentioned, the angle before day 9 is poor for most). 

The north east and eastern Scotland are probably looking at stratocumulus murk though (pressure is too high for much instability). 

[Luke Attwood]

3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

The air is cold enough that it would probably generate clear skies and shower activity (though as i mentioned, the angle before day 9 is poor for most). 

The north east and eastern Scotland are probably looking at stratocumulus murk though (pressure is too high for much instability). 

U say the angle is wrong of the high,but it would still be cold right?

[Man With Beard]

Well it's kind of been a growing sense during the day that, actually, there might not be a slow sinker at D9 after all. 

With the MJO now getting in gear, I'm thinking a possible omega block as we go into the second half of February - with at long long last the way to Greenland opened up! A famous February in store if so.

Maybe getting ahead of myself a tad...

[Seasonality]

The 12z runs tell me I won't be doing any gardening any time soon. The ground is still going to be iron hard and frozen to at least 10 days out, probably longer. Cut my hand trying to open a frozen shut shed door this morning. On the plus side the sledge will get more use, 

[SMU]

So a bit of model performance on thinks - just based on the 12z outputs -

Assuming the T72 is spot on now we take a look back at 72>96>120>144>168>192 for Tuesday 1pm

scores on the doors 

UKMO 9/10

GFS     8/10

ECM    6/10 !!!

I cant believe im putting the GFS ahead of ECM tonight - it was more the 144 & 168 on the ECM that was very poor ....

UKMO  in order 72 today 96 yest ( then 120 > 144 )

GFS - notice the atlantic retract west

& Finally look how progressive ECM has been !!  Woeful @168 & 192

best

S

 

Edited February 4, 2017 by Steve Murr

[Buzz]

Steve, why don't your model output screenshots match those on meteociel?

ECM for example:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

Edited February 4, 2017 by Buzz

[MildCarlilse]

I'm curious why this chart is creating so much excitement...

 

 

 

... when this is really the business?

[SMU]

15 minutes ago, Buzz said:

Steve, why don't your model output screenshots match those on meteociel?

Should do ! They are all for 13:00 Mardi !

[Dennis]

its just a start to see more 

[Buzz]

9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Should do ! They are all for 13:00 Mardi !

Maybe it's because I can't see the run info on them (date, time, time of run, etc).

[Banbury]

15 minutes ago, Buzz said:

Steve, why don't your model output screenshots match those on meteociel?

ECM for example:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

Do you mean because they are the Northern Hemisphere view

[Interitus]

14 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Yes...it has been trailed on the CFS for yonks...

A Greenland ridge stands a better than average chance as we head towards latter Feb. We'll see if the 0z GEFS continue where the 18z suite left off at the tail end of the run.

Here's the latest offering for March...again excellent consistency with its SSW induced outlook, just as it was March 2013...

Not to say that it will be incorrect, but regarding an SSW induced outlook a note of caution -

 

[SMU]

UKMO -168

* Flurries across the UK - otherwise difficult to acertain what the blocking & Euro flow is....

[karyo]

38 minutes ago, Interitus said:

Not to say that it will be incorrect, but regarding an SSW induced outlook a note of caution -

 

She says it is not looking good for the US and that CFS chart also not looking that cold for the US from what I can see. o they are not in disagreement.

[Iceberg]

1 hour ago, Iceberg said:

I still think the ecm is sending too much energy over the high after t120 and pushing the energy to Far East. 

Imagine the ec with the continuing scandy but with better positioning maybe an under cut and colder air. 

Thats what the models are hinting at currently. Still 24-48 hrs until they get there imho.  

Ec ens indicate that the Iceland to Kara area and the resulting flow over the high is the area of greatest uncertainty in the suite.  

Bodes well that we could see significant, cold friendly upgrades in that area. 

[Interitus]

32 minutes ago, karyo said:

She says it is not looking good for the US and that CFS chart also not looking that cold for the US from what I can see. o they are not in disagreement.

No, the second comment about CFSv2 issues coupling with strat.

[damianslaw]

As often the case, GFS much keener on sinking heights to our NE, with strong forcing taking place thanks to energy being pumped into the northern arm of the jet and riding over the top, ECM much less so, indeed it is showing a very robust strong feature 1050 mb at day 9/10. Don't usually comment on the met office medium term forecast, but reading between the lines it suggests the block will be a robust long lasting feature, with the atlantic stalling.

Short term - the easterly is set to move in gradually through Wednesday, more of a SE flow than direct E hit, could be a cloudy raw airstream, could be convective, too early to call at this range.

Longer term - very strong signals emerging that we might finally see an arctic profile ripe for sustained cold conditions latter part of the month.

[Summer Sun]

ECM Op on the warmer side of the mean from the 9th to 13th

[karyo]

19 minutes ago, Interitus said:

No, the second comment about CFSv2 issues coupling with strat.

Thanks for clarifying, what do you think this means?

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, January Snowstorm said:

As teits mentioned earlier classic easterly spells in the past always delivered cold and dry before the snow eventually arrived. Of course we hadn't the anguish of models back then just the 5 day ceefax!

Improvement today across all 3. It could go either way but we have a lottery ticket that this could become the big one

A good example, going back quite some time now was Jan 1996, the easterly arrived on the 21st producing light snow flurries at first, but it became increasingly colder during the next few days, finally a trough moved through on the 26th which then produced alot of snow here on the 27th. 

[Frosty.]

Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks peachy next week with a robust scandi high and a SEly flow backing Easterly..becoming much colder during the second half of next week with frosts, ice and even snow flurries / snow showers, especially further east and staying cold beyond..beats mild mush any day!

Edited February 4, 2017 by Frosty.

[Luke Attwood]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM Op on the warmer side of the mean from the 9th to 13th

So ur basically saying the op should be showing slightly colder temps?

[Jason H]

2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

A good example, going back quite some time now was Jan 1996, the easterly arrived on the 21st producing light snow flurries at first, but it became increasingly colder during the next few days, finally a trough moved through on the 26th which then produced alot of snow here on the 27th. 

This is what I am expecting to happen. Cold with light flurries in the East at first. As time goes by, with the block in place, colder air will eventually filter around from the far East with a chance of something a little more substantial possible. A classic slow burning Easterly set-up based on tonight's outputs and the professionals at Exeter.