Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[SMU]

16 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

If in the unlikely event of this occuring as shown, would it equal countrywide snow.

Yes - thats a 1987 redux-

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

If in the unlikely event of this occuring as shown, would it equal countrywide snow.

A few frames later yes, snow showers breaking out all over England, heaviest in the East but surely some would get across the peninnes to you, probably the biggest dumping in the SE - possibly a foot of snow - obviously difficult to tell exactly what and where though.

[Ali1977]

C'mon ECM, another step colder please....I think it's a possubilty after seeing the JMA and GEFS...Abu pics of the 168 UKMO anyone? This mornings wasn't great.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes - thats a 1987 redux-

Similar to the Gem yesterday..anyway..I'm seeing excellent signs for the best spell of this winter so far..nationwide.

[booferking]

13 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Lol! I knew you'd track that one down! great stuff.

Quite a big shift in the overall GEFS, quite a few solutions now sharpening up troughing to the nw/w, dare we dream of an ECM special this evening.

Just goes to show what can happen if we can get the high further west around Iceland would be ideal.

[Dancerwithwings]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes - thats a 1987 redux-

I would certainly agree with that.....Only if 

[bluearmy]

One of my bug bears but surely there is enough going on so that we don't have to cherry pick individual ens members ?

anyway, not sure there are many convincing clusters in that GEFS suite. Pretty well anything goes in week 2 

really wouldn't surprise me to see an ECM op which takes a more discreet upper cold pool east to west days 6/7. the ECM  mean supports such a feature and last two controls have shown it.  Still waiting to see what the route is post day 6/7. Without any clarity on that it's tough to work out how seriously the ops should be taken. 

[Mucka]

As others have mentioned, still plenty of evidence that even if the first Easterly is not a classic, there will likely be more opportunities for cold and snow as we progress through Feb.

Let's hope that signal for blocking in FI continues to strengthen. It is still entirely possible we will not see a complete breakdown and more than likely a partial breakdown will only lead to renewed blocking.

So, while I'm underwhelmed by the output with regard the first Easterly, I am optimistic something a little more exciting could be down the pipeline.

 

Edited February 4, 2017 by Mucka

[Hull snow]

17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

A few frames later yes, snow showers breaking out all over England, heaviest in the East but surely some would get across the peninnes to you, probably the biggest dumping in the SE - possibly a foot of snow - obviously difficult to tell exactly what and where though.

What charts are we talking about and the good old FDA starts backing west brilliant start to the nite

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, Hull snow said:

What charts are we talking about and the good old FDA starts backing west brilliant start to the nite

Presume your talking about that P2, I would say that if the run verified, by the time this chart verified, there would be a lot of lying snow in England and the SE quadrant of the country would have had a right ol tonking.

 

SINCERE APPOLOGIES TO BA BUT WAS JUST REPLYING.

 

EDIT : whats an FDA?

 

Edited February 4, 2017 by feb1991blizzard

[Man With Beard]

I'd say 50% of GEFS ensembles have major disruption against the block at D10. Could be a wave 3 to come around mid-month. In fact this could go on and on.

[SMU]

ECM V GFS 72

close but a sharper trigger low

[That ECM]

Liking that little pool of -8 heading west at t96 on ecm. Would be an m4 SOUTH event tho 

Edited February 4, 2017 by That ECM

[Ali1977]

Hang about, this looksway better...Low is sliding not butting up against the block - isn't it?

HP slightly higher and cutting back into Greeny 

Edited February 4, 2017 by Ali1977

[nick sussex]

That shortwave over western Russia associated with some deeper cold at T120hrs. Can we get that west, upstream the ECM is better than the GFS.

[northwestsnow]

Not sure what to make of ecm at 120..

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not sure what to make of ecm at 120..

 

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not sure what to make of ecm at 120..

HP is 200 miles west compared to the 120 on the GFS 

 

Edited February 4, 2017 by Ali1977

[Hull snow]

20 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Presume your talking about that P2, I would say that if the run verified, by the time this chart verified, there would be a lot of lying snow in England and the SE quadrant of the country would have had a right ol tonking.

 

SINCERE APPOLOGIES TO BA BUT WAS JUST REPLYING.

 

EDIT : whats an FDA?

 

Meant to say Gfs I think we will get the goods still big changes this close 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

maybe light flurries moving through? uppers around -5 ish

[Daniel*]

ECM 120 very cold ice day(s) in places I would presume that is one formidable very well orientated block which will be very hard to shift.

Edited February 4, 2017 by Daniel*

[summer blizzard]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

maybe light flurries moving through? uppers around -5 ish

As excited as you are all getting the E flow is pretty short and pressure fairly high, both factors which will limit shower generation.

Not suggesting no snow from that though, it's one of the better charts in recent days (from non fodder models). 

[That ECM]

That's not a bad easterly. It would feel bitter.

[SMU]

ECM @168 doing exactly what was discussed earlier-

* Deep cold pool ejecting out west from Russia 

* Italian Low squeezing north

All resulting in a strong westward push of further deep cold across europe @168

can we tap it @192? - atlantic undercut may help...

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM @168 doing exactly what was discussed earlier-

* Deep cold pool ejecting out west from Russia 

* Italian Low squeezing north

All resulting in a strong westward push of further deep cold across europe @168

can we tap it @192? - atlantic undercut may help...

It's nearly there and that Scandy high isn't budging much and it's strengthening 

Edited February 4, 2017 by Ali1977

[chionomaniac]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM @168 doing exactly what was discussed earlier-

* Deep cold pool ejecting out west from Russia 

* Italian Low squeezing north

All resulting in a strong westward push of further deep cold across europe @168

can we tap it @192? - atlantic undercut may help...

Just very small changes in the orientation of the Scandi high and position of Euro low is going to make a big difference in where the coldest 850's end up. Fascinating model watching at its best.