Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[booferking]

2 minutes ago, snowice said:

It will correct west by 120 patience required! 

Odds on it will but nobody knows that for sure. We also need more of an Easterly to draw in the colder air as the South Easterly draws the coldest air North West over Scotland

Edited February 4, 2017 by booferking

[snowray]

2 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

Couldn't put it better myself hoping for some westward correction on that score to allow the Scandinavia high to form snow ice beat me there lol

The Atlantic simply has to go and do one, and fast! Also the endercut, when we finally get it, must head towards Northern Italy (ish) not the Azores.

[snowray]

A lot better this

[Spurry]

57 minutes ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

DAILY EUROPEAN TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE CHECK No.2 - SOME VERY GOOD PROGRESS

 

                     

Absolutely brilliant analysis and explanation for model watchers in simple language(like me)

Thank you

[SMU]

06z v 00z in the theta charts shows the clear move to a colder easterly flow @ 114/120

[Bobd29]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

06z v 00z in the theta charts shows the clear move to a colder easterly flow @ 114/120

Great for cold and frost but no signs I can see of any undercut or snow, HP holding Atlantic moisture at bay....please inform if I am wrong

[SMU]

15 minutes ago, Bobd29 said:

Great for cold and frost but no signs I can see of any undercut or snow, HP holding Atlantic moisture at bay....please inform if I am wrong

Give it a couple more days ....

 

Also 06z recurving the jet through scandi & lifting the low upwards NE out of Italy- * highlighting the post earlier- we could see a sharper easterly gradient into the 192 arena -

[blizzard81]

Lol,  the really cold uppers do a cruise up the east coast but don't venture inland. A torturous run this one. 

[Frosty.]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Lol,  the really cold uppers do a cruise up the east coast but don't venture inland. A torturous run this one. 

Just taking the scenic route, patience grasshopper

[snowray]

5 minutes ago, Bobd29 said:

Great for cold and frost but no signs I can see of any undercut or snow, HP holding Atlantic moisture at bay....please inform if I am wrong

I would want to see the cold air getting in and establishing itself before worrying about undercuts and battle grounds. Unfortunately it barely makes it before the supply is cut off. Most of the cold air remains in the North Sea. Typical really.

[blizzard81]

I really do hope the ecm is correct on this one as the GFS is fast falling out of love with our easterly. 

[Man With Beard]

A shortwave sucker punch at T168! Holds the cold up over Denmark and stays in situ. Goodness, if that shortwave could just move west another 500 miles, we could end up with a stationary cold pool over the UK that not only brings several days of extra deep cold but that also combines with the incoming Atlantic to bring snow by D10ish.

[Weathizard]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

A shortwave sucker punch at T168! Holds the cold up over Denmark and stays in situ. Goodness, if that shortwave could just move west another 500 miles, we could end up with a stationary cold pool over the UK that not only brings several days of extra deep cold but that also combines with the incoming Atlantic to bring snow by D10ish.

As usual with getting sustained cold to the uk, everything that can go wrong inevitably will! It's so painful it's like pulling teeth.

 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

A shortwave sucker punch at T168! Holds the cold up over Denmark and stays in situ. Goodness, if that shortwave could just move west another 500 miles, we could end up with a stationary cold pool over the UK that not only brings several days of extra deep cold but that also combines with the incoming Atlantic to bring snow by D10ish.

The dreaded shortwave from hell. How many times have we seen those over the years. 

[snowice]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

A shortwave sucker punch at T168! Holds the cold up over Denmark and stays in situ. Goodness, if that shortwave could just move west another 500 miles, we could end up with a stationary cold pool over the UK that not only brings several days of extra deep cold but that also combines with the incoming Atlantic to bring snow by D10ish.

Good news is 168 hrs away! 

[blizzard81]

Yesterday's 06z run was also poor if I remember correctly. It has a bad reputation so let's hope it is performing badly as usual. 

[northwestsnow]

We just cant shake off those horrid blues and purples from our north west!

[Nick F]

20 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Lol,  the really cold uppers do a cruise up the east coast but don't venture inland. A torturous run this one. 

I wouldn't be too hung up over how cold the uppers are, GFS predicts the surface easterly will be cold and dry with dew points generally at or below 0C, which will support light snow flurries even across southern UK later next week. Where the cold is deeper towards the NE the pressure/heights are higher anyway, so any ppn looks light and confined to coasts. The NWP depiction of the upcoming cold spell, so far, has never looked like showing a big snow event.

Bit dubious the Atlantic will coming rolling back in as quick as the GFS consistently shows next weekend, often the model is too progressive in this respect, particularly with such an established and strong block as shown mid-week, surely it can't be broken down so quickly?

Edited February 4, 2017 by Nick F

[Weather-history]

The problem to me is that pressure is not low enough to the south of the Scandinavian high.  Lower the pressure to the south of the high, the great the pressure gradient, the greater the easterly flow. 

Even on ECM, the rex block is tilted to the lines of longitude. To me, the block should be aligned to the lines of longitude

 

[blizzard81]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

We just cant shake off those horrid blues and purples from our north west!

Indeed.  Very little has been said about the potency of this.  It certainly isn't helping our cause. 

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I wouldn't be too hung up over how cold the uppers are, GFS predicts the surface easterly will be cold and dry with dew points generally at or below 0C, which will support light snow flurries even across southern UK later next week. Where the cold is deeper towards the NE the pressure/heights are higher anyway, so any ppn looks light and confined to coasts. The NWP depiction of the upcoming cold spell, so far, has never looked like showing a big snow event.

Bit dubious the Atlantic will coming rolling back in as quick as the GFS consistently shows next weekend, often the model is too progressive in this respect, particularly with such an established and strong block as shown mid-week, surely it can't be broken down so quickly?

Indeed. To be honest,  I am already turning my attention to the last third of Feb. The GFS ens look very interesting towards this period and the extended ecm ens don't appear to warm up too much either. Next week could just be the light starter with the main course back end of Feb. 

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Yesterday's 06z run was also poor if I remember correctly. It has a bad reputation so let's hope it is performing badly as usual. 

You are correct and luckily the duration and intensity of the upcoming cold spell won't be determined by the 6z operational!

[SMU]

Meanwhile another stella JMA 06z

Im noticing not only the colder runs have the flatter easterly flow but of course are sharper with the UK trough around 72-84

This is a great chart!

[Snowman31]

10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Meanwhile another stella JMA 06z

Im noticing not only the colder runs have the flatter easterly flow but of course are sharper with the UK trough around 72-84

This is a great chart!

Unlikely to be right against bigger models at just 72 hours though

Edited February 4, 2017 by Snowman31

[Hull snow]

I thort the normal thing in these types of setup is for the models to massively underestimate the block n back the pattern west as we count down to t0