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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)

    Low pressure not really making too much Eastward progress on the UKMO either even by 144;

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    2 hours ago, Longtimelurker said:

    Only 384 hours away

    gfs-0-384.png

    It might be , but this is the first time for a fair while since we've had an interesting FI.   Signs of things to come hopefully!!

    this may help - very close to a proper SSW

    IMG_4081.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    2 hours ago, Kentish Snowman said:

    Low pressure not really making too much Eastward progress on the UKMO either even by 144;

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    Not sure what you are implying. I counted at least five periods of rain crossing the UK between now and D6 so to suggest anything but unsettled is not correct (though the further SE the less impact). We have had this euro block -v- Atlantic before and even when the UK is at the end of the train, wet weather is the likely outcome. Watch the jet to see where the rain will be.

    Looking at the D16 mean and little change, looks like the move to a different pattern will be slow. The cold uppers are on a poor axis for the UK so with no forcing showing then it will take a while from that D16 chart to get the UK cold:

    gensnh-21-1-384.pnggensnh-21-0-384.png

    As suggested the ECM D10 chart this morning now in line with the GFS.

    It is from around D10/11 that the PV can ease away from our NW as the ex EPO High warms out over the euro/Asian region. However at the moment, despite the claims that the MJO will kick in with some wave breaking, there is no sign of that yet, and I have now pretty much given up on any consistent MJO forcing this winter. So with a weak PV just moving with the flow, but primed for destruction, we await a trop led 1 or 2 wave push.Looking at the D16 GFS op there is minimal hints of either in the short term:

    gfsnh-0-384.png

    The control and GEFS are all different so that D16 chart is unlikely to be repeated in the medium term.

    In the next week looks like the SE should have max temps above 10c every day so a pleasant change for us 5 am risers as lows will be very mild

    graphe6_0000_306_141___Londres.gif

    January has seen a cold spell (SE especially) temp wise though for snow lovers again disappointing. CET should be close to average so even with that rare UK cold spell it is hard to get a significantly cold month! 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    51 minutes ago, IDO said:

    January has seen a cold spell (SE especially) temp wise though for snow lovers again disappointing. CET should be close to average so even with that rare UK cold spell it is hard to get a significantly cold month! 

     

    I point out that it wasn't really a UK cold spell, you even hint at this  yourself, they were odd days but frosts were limited by cloud cover that's why the CET isn't that low because the largest -ve anomalies are to the SE of the CET area. The further north you go the milder it was.

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore
    40 minutes ago, IDO said:

    January has seen a cold spell (SE especially) temp wise though for snow lovers again disappointing. CET should be close to average so even with that rare UK cold spell it is hard to get a significantly cold month! 

     

    A bit of a contradiction that one, as you note the SE has had the real cold period, yet compare that with the CET - which to those who may not know is the Central England Temperature series. You need to compare apples with apples.

    In terms of the models, the GFS ensemble anomalies show a pretty clear-cut picture, and that's the weakening of the block and the dominance of low pressure through much of the run.

    ens1.png ens2.png ens3.png

    The ECM similar, so broad agreement currently.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis

    There we have it. First tentative signs of a Nly airflow. Induced from a Greenie High. Think it is best to look at the NAO going negative on the emsembles. It is way out on the run, but supports my hunch. Sorry guys. Gut instinct rules with me much of the time.

    hgt500-1000.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore
    14 minutes ago, snowbunting said:

    There we have it. First tentative signs of a Nly airflow. Induced from a Greenie High. Think it is best to look at the NAO going negative on the emsembles. It is way out on the run, but supports my hunch. Sorry guys. Gut instinct rules with me much of the time.

    hgt500-1000.png

    There's not a greenland high there I'm afraid. You'll often see a surface high over Greenland because of the cold air, but for a Greenland high in the proper sense of the word, you need to see the yellows and oranges on the 500hpa height charts. 

    gfs384.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Diss, South Norfolk
  • Location: Diss, South Norfolk

    Well I'm guessing the met office are seeing something in the predicted strat warming as their 16-30 dayer now suggests the low possibility of a more prolonged cold spell second half of Feb.. I'm sure that will change again tomorrow though..

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    4 minutes ago, Paul said:

    There's not a greenland high there I'm afraid. You'll often see a surface high over Greenland because of the cold air, but for a Greenland high in the proper sense of the word, you need to see the yellows and oranges on the 500hpa height charts. 

    gfs384.png

    Best chart in some time though, could be more eye candy to come now that the SSW is starting to get into full swing.:)

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    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Arklow on the East coast of Ireland
  • Location: Arklow on the East coast of Ireland
    12 minutes ago, snowray said:

    Best chart in some time though, could be more eye candy to come now that the SSW is starting to get into full swing.:)

    It's a lovely chart if you like occasional cold rain showers in a northwesterly following the rain from the low in the channel 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Tuesday looks very mild for just about all of England and Wales with temps widely in double figures still chilly for the bulk of Scotland

    84-778UK.GIF?28-0

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Actually getting interesting again from a coldie perspective as the models continue to track the jet a bit further south and lower heights look to become dominant across w Europe in general 

    the last two ec op runs have delivered snowfall across s half uk (whilst the north receives some thing  via cool zonality)

    as said by many previously, s tracking jet and a cold Atlantic trough will send runners along the base of the trough. Early Feb is not a terrible time for snowfall though sustained isn't supported by such a mobile set up - however, clearly Exeter are seeing something on glosea re ramifications by mid month from events high up and whilst that day 16 GFS chart is not going to verify like that, it must have some background pattern support for derek to tweet it. 

    feb has never looked like delivering much and yet we may be surprised !

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    1 hour ago, Mr_Pessimistic said:

    Well I'm guessing the met office are seeing something in the predicted strat warming as their 16-30 dayer now suggests the low possibility of a more prolonged cold spell second half of Feb.. I'm sure that will change again tomorrow though..

    Yes it may change as the probability becomes higher the nearer we get:)

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Much better ridge into Scandy 

    IMG_4082.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Too far out to go into detail but I think the poster is correct looking at the set up.Very cold rain.

     

    C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_gfs-2-384.png

    C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_gfsnh-0-360.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    58 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Actually getting interesting again from a coldie perspective as the models continue to track the jet a bit further south and lower heights look to become dominant across w Europe in general 

    the last two ec op runs have delivered snowfall across s half uk (whilst the north receives some thing  via cool zonality)

    as said by many previously, s tracking jet and a cold Atlantic trough will send runners along the base of the trough. Early Feb is not a terrible time for snowfall though sustained isn't supported by such a mobile set up - however, clearly Exeter are seeing something on glosea re ramifications by mid month from events high up and whilst that day 16 GFS chart is not going to verify like that, it must have some background pattern support for derek to tweet it. 

    feb has never looked like delivering much and yet we may be surprised !

     

    Derek is an excellent meteorologist too, very good forecaster and so a tweet worth keeping in mind

     

    B FTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    20 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    Much better ridge into Scandy 

    IMG_4082.PNG

    I don't want to sound like I'm having a dig or anything....but surely it's pointless looking for little things like this with the synoptics going the way they are? :) 

    There is literally ZERO chance of anything good heading our way for the next 10-14 days at least now. The atmosphere has to be in balance, so for the very strong ridge out to the NW, it is coupled with a very strong trough in our neck of the woods.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C3MQ5ifWIAEa_Vo.jpg:large

    For once, it's best to look for some trends at 240+, as the door is firmly shut for the next 10 days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    I don't want to sound like I'm having a dig or anything....but surely it's pointless looking for little things like this with the synoptics going the way they are? :) 

    There is literally ZERO chance of anything good heading our way for the next 10-14 days at least now. The atmosphere has to be in balance, so for the very strong ridge out to the NW, it is coupled with a very strong trough in our neck of the woods.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C3MQ5ifWIAEa_Vo.jpg:large

    For once, it's best to look for some trends at 240+, as the door is firmly shut for the next 10 days.

    So the confusing thing is that Blue mentioned the last two ECM OP runs had snow and southerly tracking jet?

    No wonder confusion reigns in here sometimes

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Possibly some hill snow and some higher elevations may get a few flakes....wouldn't bank on anything down at low levels though. To be honest I hate cold zonality, never delivers the goods here, and by its very nature is transient. I'd say apart from the hills we won't see anything for the next 10 days, but that's just my opinion. :)

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    39 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    So the confusing thing is that Blue mentioned the last two ECM OP runs had snow and southerly tracking jet?

    No wonder confusion reigns in here sometimes

    Apropos of nothing, some screenshots of 6 hour snowfall totals from the past two ec op runs days 9 and 10

    unlikley but not impossible and perhaps becomes more relevant days 10-12

    IMG_0574.PNG IMG_0575.PNG IMG_0576.PNG

    IMG_0577.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

    morning all.

    just read in the strat thread theres been a large spike in the 10hpa temps and the 30hpa temps.

    surley this is going to begin to throw the models out, im expecting a lot of chopping and changing/flipping and flopping.

    fromey 

     

     

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