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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

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3 minutes ago, Jason M said:

GEFS are a bit disappointing overall. Some very odd looking charts though so they are really struggling at the moment.

Yep not many good runs in them quite a U-turn.

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11 minutes ago, booferking said:

Yep not many good runs in them quite a U-turn.

Don't think we can read too much into them tbh. Its quite a complex set up so I'd give more weight to the opps. I'm staying on the fence personally with this one and hoping to be convinced in the morning.

Edit - fully out now. Certainly not a bad set, just a bit surprised they are not better.

 

Edited by Jason M

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4 minutes ago, booferking said:

Yep not many good runs in them quite a U-turn.

What's that coming over the  hill,is it another re-load,is it another re-load?

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And back to the models please, thanks

I will be deleting the off topic posts so don't be surprised if you see your post disappear!

Edited by chionomaniac

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21 minutes ago, booferking said:

Yep not many good runs in them quite a U-turn.

Not sure what people are expecting - I think the bar has been set way to high. This is the set for London

graphe3_1000_306_141___Londres.thumb.gif.f83e99d1f112e6de629172fa2707d8d9.gif

 

In FI mean of -2/3, most below 0, several below -5 and a couple below -10. Mean like this

gens-21-1-384.thumb.png.483dadedbcaef8343e1f298f76c54a39.png

virtually no Atlantic - what are you expecting or hoping for.

Edited by swilliam

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9 minutes ago, swilliam said:

Not sure what people are expecting - I think the bar has been set way to high. This is the set for London

graphe3_1000_306_141___Londres.thumb.gif.f83e99d1f112e6de629172fa2707d8d9.gif

 

In FI mean of -2/3, most below 0, several below -5 and a couple below -10. Mean like this

gens-21-1-384.thumb.png.483dadedbcaef8343e1f298f76c54a39.png

virtually no Atlantic - what are you expecting or hoping for.

This a very interesting and striking anomaly chart for day 16 (pressure ensemble mean)

gensnh-21-5-384.png

Suggests that we're eventually going to have a good chance of getting the HP N Atlantic/ Greenland based in the longer term. All the time we're still seeing CFS anomalies like this being thrown out

cfsnh-4-3-2017.png?06

I remain unchanged from last night, we have a potentially very interesting 6 weeks or so coming up.

Edited by CreweCold

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4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

This a very interesting and striking anomaly chart for day 16 (pressure ensemble mean)

gensnh-21-5-384.png

Suggests that we're eventually going to have a good chance of getting the HP N Atlantic/ Greenland based in the longer term. All the time we're still seeing CFS anomalies like this being thrown out

cfsnh-4-3-2017.png?06

I remain unchanged from last night, we have a potentially very interesting 6 weeks or so coming up.

Good spot there Crewe. 

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15 minutes ago, swilliam said:

Not sure what people are expecting - I think the bar has been set way to high. This is the set for London

graphe3_1000_306_141___Londres.thumb.gif.f83e99d1f112e6de629172fa2707d8d9.gif

 

In FI mean of -2/3, most below 0, several below -5 and a couple below -10. Mean like this

gens-21-1-384.thumb.png.483dadedbcaef8343e1f298f76c54a39.png

virtually no Atlantic - what are you expecting or hoping for.

Indeed. That is a very good mean for so far out.

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What is interesting in GFS ensembles is that after the initial high declines, many quickly rebuild a mid lat block and give us another Easterly

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1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

The issue is, Chiono, things more often go wrong than they go right in the UK so I prefer to be realistic with potential pitfalls. People can say it's negativity but the fact that I've seen a dozen ramping episodes on this forum and yet with no substantial cold spells actually materialising over the past couple of years, it speaks for itself.

I'd be the first one to ramp away if I saw something truly great in the modelling but from the promise and optimism of just 48 hours ago (where we had the potential for a very notable E'ly spell) we have now been left with a couple of days of E/SE'ly winds and a modest cold pool to play with under fairly high pressure.

Eastern and southeastern areas may well see snow, but what I'm seeing at the moment for everyone else is grey, stratiform sky with a cold wind.

For what it's worth I don't foresee this spell being the last period of interest this month (nor even into March) and I'm not buying a long term descent into the MLB that we have seen for much of the winter thus far. So, longer term I quite agree with you.

Got to say, I personally havant seen much trend of a convective easterly appearing in the outputs a few days ago, I think the models in fairness has been consistent on a cold dry SE/ESE'ly airflow which may eventually back easterly but convection being rather limited. There has been of course variations which is affecting just how cold the upper air temps could get but all in all, it looks like we will have some sort of influence from the continent from mid-week onwards.

That said, I don't mind suffering cold raw cloudy days if it leads to something more showery and convective down the line and whilst the block is in place, then we always got a chance. I think a lot of people hoping the GEM is right but I say its very unlikely although as some of the fantastic analysis shows, it only needs a minor change for the output to change.

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Just now, Geordiesnow said:

Got to say, I personally havant seen much trend of a convective easterly appearing in the outputs a few days ago, I think the models in fairness has been consistent on a cold dry SE/ESE'ly airflow which may eventually back easterly but convection being rather limited. There has been of course variations which is affecting just how cold the upper air temps could get but all in all, it looks like we will have some sort of influence from the continent from mid-week onwards.

That said, I don't mind suffering cold raw cloudy days if it leads to something more showery and convective down the line and whilst the block is in place, then we always got a chance. I think a lot of people hoping the GEM is right but I say its very unlikely although as some of the fantastic analysis shows, it only needs a minor change for the output to change.

As to be expected the 'envelope' of solutions and possibilities was larger and we saw some signs that we had the potential for a fairly deep seated easterly and attendant cold pooling. However, one of the less palatable options (though still cold) looks like it may come to pass this time round. Surely we're due a bit of luck and the capturing of the best case scenario for the first time in yonks! 

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1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:

Got to say, I personally havant seen much trend of a convective easterly appearing in the outputs a few days ago, I think the models in fairness has been consistent on a cold dry SE/ESE'ly airflow which may eventually back easterly but convection being rather limited. There has been of course variations which is affecting just how cold the upper air temps could get but all in all, it looks like we will have some sort of influence from the continent from mid-week onwards.

That said, I don't mind suffering cold raw cloudy days if it leads to something more showery and convective down the line and whilst the block is in place, then we always got a chance. I think a lot of people hoping the GEM is right but I say its very unlikely although as some of the fantastic analysis shows, it only needs a minor change for the output to change.

Some of the ops around 2 to 3 days ago were showing something similar to tonight's gem. Gem is more or less on it's own now.

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3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Some of the ops around 2 to 3 days ago were showing something similar to tonight's gem. Gem is more or less on it's own now.

Maybe I have missed those runs then because I have not seen any op runs suggesting a classic convective easterly which the GEM may deliver, I have constantly seen an ESE'ly-SE'ly flow bringing in colder upper air temps but with high thicknesses so convection is very limited. This upcoming easterly does remind me of the one a few years back where it bought -10 uppers but because thicknesses were not all that low, lapse rates were not low either so there was a lot of stratuscumlus cloud with limited convection(e.g some snow showers but well scattered and not all that heavy)

I do wonder with the flow more ESE'ly/SE'ly we may see clearer conditions so chances are it could be quite sunny and cold, at least at first but as Helen Wiletts hinted at in her forecast yesterday, we may see the high eventually become a cloudy one. Either way its an interesting period of model watching and the battleground set up is always interesting in the way how things eventually play out.

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26 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Some of the ops around 2 to 3 days ago were showing something similar to tonight's gem. Gem is more or less on it's own now.

The updated JMA 18z backs it at 84hr thats as far as its updated to but it backs the gem like it did on its earlier run.

JN84-21.gif

JN84-7.gif

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2 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

We all know what can go wrong JS but some of us prefer to concentrate on what can go right and the reasons why. I will stick to that motto. In life it does me no harm to plan for the worst and hope for the best. I suggest that that should be a model watching mantra!

That's great chionomaniac to stick to that motto but the reverse, some of us (and I'm a coldie)prefer to undertone the expectations just in case((like 70+%)of the time,we are let down.And I find you're 2nd part contradictory to the first part tbh.

Edited by joggs

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I think we're all in agreement (and so are the models) that we'll be sat in a col (anywhere from 96 - 144, depending on which model output you look at)

It's a crossroads moment, literally.

We'll go cold easterly (pretty nailed on, but snowy or long-lasted ? who knows)

We'd all like there to be shorter term synoptics or upgrades that bring us the white nectar.

(could definitely still happen. Even today there was possibility of sleety snow on the wraparound of the tight low that whipped through) In Center Parks Longleat so felt the chafing cold of that one with wet skin out of the warm water.)

But more likely we're looking at a quick cold shot and further possibilities down the line.

If any part of the UK gets a smashing snow event into next Thursday and the few days beyond, I'll be chuffed. Still the models put -10 and below 850s

If they don't - then still don't despair. It could still be coming.

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1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

As to be expected the 'envelope' of solutions and possibilities was larger and we saw some signs that we had the potential for a fairly deep seated easterly and attendant cold pooling. However, one of the less palatable options (though still cold) looks like it may come to pass this time round. Surely we're due a bit of luck and the capturing of the best case scenario for the first time in yonks! 

You would hope so Crewe but (and I hate invoking it) Occam's razor says it will pass as it has in the past.

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3 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

A collapsing high a week on Sunday on an operational GFS output- I do wonder what you expect JS? Did you look at the NH profile? At present this does not look like the ordinary run of the mill Atlantic regain control type of  profile. The split into the strat is still there!

NH_HGT_50mb_210.thumb.gif.a4927a5d89bb7862ac8e145d185be6fe.gif

Thing is it puts it 9 days into the future. As many who watch this thread will attest to, there's nothing realistic out there.

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Well both the GFS and UKMO are a little underwhelming this morning which is a shame, following on from the GFS last night. Everything a little further east and the flow Defo more SE than East.

add GEM to that - looks like the METO were right not to give any express like lines - as were the BBC. 

Going to be some dissapointment in here this morning

Edited by Ali1977

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We have model agreement at 144. GFS/METO and gem all with the jet going se and heights building to the north. UK northern hemisphere is a peach

Edited by warrenb

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4 minutes ago, warrenb said:

We have model agreement at 144. GFS/METO and gem all with the jet going se and heights building to the north

That makes it sound like some good coldie charts, compared to yesterday they have moved east with a sinking high. Still chilly but not cold with chance of snow.

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Just now, Ali1977 said:

That makes it sound like some good coldie charts, compared to yesterday they have moved east with a sinking high. Still chilly but not cold with chance of snow.

Aye, by day 8 &9 we have a sinking high and a westerly flow for the UK

gfsnh-0-210.png

Let's see if later in FI we see the trend of the 18z GEFS manifest with N blocking re-establishing

 

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