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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

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1 minute ago, Hammer50 said:

Bbc saying it might get cold but dry or it could be wet but mild.next week.

That's the Hammer :D

To early for them to get onboard yet .

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1 minute ago, Hammer50 said:

Bbc saying it might get cold but dry or it could be wet but mild.next week.

Fence sitting or what!

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A couple of things to look out for as the GFS 18hrs run comes out.

Heres the GFS 12hrs T72hrs and for comparison the GEM T72hrs.

gfsnh-0-72.thumb.png.3f8eef894fbf1db052432d38d1228ae6.pnggemnh-0-72.thumb.png.6ce95686f7e13a49fae0bc8b90bac44a.png

 

You want the block orientated ne/sw not east/west. Also you can see the GEM has less dig of that shortwave se and this is also a bellwether going forward.

 

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T24 nick & flicking between 24-30 sees a better angle early doors...

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GFS looks pretty much a carbon copy of the 12z at day 4, certainly not going with the extreme GEM output

 

 

IMG_7525.PNG

IMG_7526.PNG

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GFS 18hrs run isn't really interested in joining the GEM party. We still have a few more 18hrs outputs to come out which would include that key earlier timeframe. A few smaller models so we'll see if they show any movement towards the GEM.

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29 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

T24 nick & flicking between 24-30 sees a better angle early doors...

Hi been on here ten years plus and seen it all.One thing it's i have really gained is nothing is but nothing is worth looking forward to or locked in untill it is in 24/48 hrs at the very best.

regards jason 

Edited by norfolksnow
misspelt

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12z left, 18z right. nothing if not consistent. 

gfsnh-0-108.pnggfsnh-0-102.png?18

By 138 we do see a somewhat better evolution however...more energy going under the block and eastward progression slowed, as the med LP sits further north.  Expect a nicer run from here.  

gfsnh-0-144.pnggfsnh-0-138.png?18

Edited by weatherguy

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Looks slightly further west to me and a more robust block at 144 hrs.....can only be a good thing!

Edited by Frostbite1980

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Everything slightly further west at 144, slightly colder and a better chance of a few flurries !! So not a big swing colder but a v slight shift for the good...Won't be staying up but hope we have a few ENS following the GEM!!

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The GFS so far is a smidgeon worse in the short term with the cold pool but a smidgeon better with the Atlantic orientation for the long term

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3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

The GFS so far is a smidgeon worse in the short term with the cold pool but a smidgeon better with the Atlantic orientation for the long term

It's a snidgeon better for cold at 168 

infact it's better all round by 174 with a straight Easterly.

IMG_4161.PNG

Edited by Ali1977

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2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

The GFS so far is a smidgeon worse in the short term with the cold pool but a smidgeon better with the Atlantic orientation for the long term

Not so sure it is, the -8c isotherm makes much more westward progress.

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At 168 hrs -8 uppers across most of the country with -10 coming in on the east coast

gfs-1-168.png?18

and by 180 hrs ALL of the BI bar the very SW is in -8 uppers

gfs-1-180.png?18

Edited by Allseasons-si

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Not so sure it is, the -8c isotherm makes much more westward progress.

I was talking in size of cold pool - however the better Atlantic profile means that it makes it further west

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Just now, chionomaniac said:

I was talking in size of cold pool - however the better Atlantic profile means that it makes it further west

See what you meant at the time of posting as it looked like it was going to miss the South, its a corking upgrade for all though now wrt short and long term.

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7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

See what you meant at the time of posting as it looked like it was going to miss the South, its a corking upgrade for all though now wrt short and long term.

Short term yes but not sure about long term as at 192 the Azores high looks like moving in and probably introducing a pretty flat pattern there after. A definite upgrade on the longetivity for colder weather than the 6z though.

 

or could we be looking at the NW for an arctic blast :fool:

Edited by Frostbite1980

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-10's to -11's across most of England,not too shabby is it:D

180-7UK.GIF?03-18

Edited by Allseasons-si

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Interesting on the 18z how the deep cold pool becomes trapped beneath a flabby high inversion with little impetus to move it! If and when the Atlantic comes in, it does eventually on 18z but probably too progressive, it would take some budging.

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Still a fantastic split across the pole at T+210 with cross polar flow ( but from the Atlantic to Pacific) on this run. Leaves further opportunities down the line.

GFSOPNH18_210_1.thumb.png.0cde589be78af6e6a0c445fd035fe930.png

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1 minute ago, Frostbite1980 said:

Short term yes but not sure about long term as at 192 the Azores high looks like moving in and probably introducing a pretty flat pattern there after. A definite upgrade on the longetivity for colder weather than the 6z though.

Yes I don't think that this run will actually advect proper Easterly weather across us but by 210 you can see that the Atlantic held further back than the 12z, better cold entrenched so potential for snow from any Atlantic attack plus Siberian vortex sliced off via double wave attack slicing through svaalbard so an upgrade.

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What the 18z says to me is colder but mainly dry weather from Thursday of next week though it will feel bitter in the wind. Ice days possible Friday/Saturday with snow flurries on favoured coasts.

It's a far from robust setup imo with the Scandi high collapsing on Sunday. It isn't much to write home about

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