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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

UKMO, GEM and GFS at 144hr

ECH1-144.gif.thumb.png.25902c0c1509e9195ba7148e6370fe7e.pnggemnh-0-144.thumb.png.d53b4458f03579c9ff4b5d8a26a16d37.pnggfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.e38d87dca3167a25f990fcce63438c78.png

Concentrating on the more reliable models..The UKMO again has a stronger block with more yellows around Scandinavia than the GFS.

Edited by D.V.R
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

GEM has next to no chance of verifying sy 120z

Not one GEF has separated the chunk s/sw

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_gens_panel_rqg7.png

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_gemnh-0-120.png

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

t168 control is cold especially for the east but nothing on a par with the cold air shown across the pond...

gensnh-0-0-168.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
8 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

You like to tell porkies! It's explicit 03/02/17. I think you ought to think before you post.

image.thumb.jpeg.79deedd64adee58f2dcdaefe4ec9c9c4.jpeg

 

Not my style to tell porkies actually. I get a different chart when I click on the updated 84 chart. 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
33 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Updated JMA 12z 84 scoops up the vortex chunk SW just like the GEM--

IMG_2269.thumb.PNG.8a81c54b9e9d6d9918e5972aafa1c558.PNG

 

Are you sure that's not yesterday's? the screenshot time says 23:53

This is what I have at t84

JN84-21.GIF?03-12

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Are you sure that's not yesterday's? the screenshot time says 23:53

This is what I have at t84

JN84-21.GIF?03-12

Thank you summer. At last some sanity. That's what I get too. 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
8 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

UKMO, GEM and GFS at 144hr

ECH1-144.gif.thumb.png.25902c0c1509e9195ba7148e6370fe7e.pnggemnh-0-144.thumb.png.d53b4458f03579c9ff4b5d8a26a16d37.pnggfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.e38d87dca3167a25f990fcce63438c78.png

Concentrating on the more reliable models..The UKMO again has a stronger block with more yellows around Scandinavia than the GFS.

Mean at 144 definitely supports a stronger better ordinated Scandi block than GFS op shows. :) 

image.thumb.png.c43996176e4e99d9d116c5c49236f8df.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Just now, MR EXTREMES said:

id love to know how this is a good chart.

It's good if you have a love in with the polar vortex. 

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

I think some are getting mistaken with the GEM/JMA and not looking in the right place.

Look towards Siberia at +24 and you will note the lobe of PV. Next to this notice the smaller purple blob.

gemnh-0-24.png?12

Watch how through the rest of the run this sweeps SW towards the UK.

 

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Your image has the cold pool same as GEM

maybe I uploaded the wrong image

 

anyways... JMA will ipdate more soon -- :)

i love the gem bulldose straight into the uk and ukmo is pretty good there my top 2 for a colder outcome and better than a cold snap.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
7 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Poor chart though Steve according to a couple on here...

to be fair looking at that chart and its evolution its good.

so im sorry for the comment.

Edited by MR EXTREMES
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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

This forum is so entertaining at times. I think people are just bored waiting for the ECM to come out, so instead let's all argue over charts & cold pools. Hilarious!

For reference here is this morning's ECM 96 -144. Let's see if tonight's is better or worse, poorer or greater than this morning. I'm sure we'll all disagree :D

ECH1-96.GIF.thumb.png.70604af043696a54bdae041c2b36ee0e.pngECH1-120.GIF.thumb.png.2998de130370cabe69160b70e4dd84c2.pngECH1-144.GIF.thumb.png.ed2fb2fed3bda714254e65a6f175afe3.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

GFS backing again. Bit like watching the tide comes forward and then recedes. Could be a still born easterly this one.

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Look at where the ECM has the upper air cold pool at 120 v the GEM 108

Miles & Miles apart!!

Seems in these kind of setups, it can be anyone's guess though Steve! Easterlies are the most notoriously hard thing to forecast it seems. 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Look at where the ECM has the upper air cold pool at 120 v the GEM 108

Miles & Miles apart!!

you are assuming the current ecm op wont flip to the gem :rofl:

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