Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[nick sussex]

Quite an amazing difference between the GEM and the others in terms of cold pool. The GFS and UKMO orientate the high so that the deep cold gets pushed se, the GEM manages to take a lobe of that cold sw.

A big reason for this is the shortwave which heads se near Svalbard this goes se further east on the GEM which make less of it and results in the axis of the high not being tipped more unfavourably.

It manages to get that chunk of deep cold on its way sw before the shortwave issues.

I can't imagine the GEM will outfox the UKMO and GFS from this early a timeframe.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

In my eyes a better 12z run. A much better feed of vertical WAA beyond Svalbard, which should help keep northern heights propped up better. In turn, we see a better orientated slider low and marginally better uppers in terms of potential snowfall opportunities.  I can't see how it then just wants to flatten the pattern as if there was no robust easterly deflecting it at all! 

Im sure back in 2012 or 2013 the GFS did the same thing, and was corrected substantially by underestimating the block. 

As for the GEM, well, stark raving bonkers!! 

Edited February 3, 2017 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Daniel*]

7 minutes ago, radiohead said:

-18 uppers in the far SE.

Very snowy

Intense lake effect snow with SST in the North Sea toastier than average the East Coast would need the army to be called in perhaps.  

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Quite an amazing difference between the GEM and the others in terms of cold pool. The GFS and UKMO orientate the high so that the deep cold gets pushed se, the GEM manages to take a lobe of that cold sw.

A big reason for this is the shortwave which heads se near Svalbard this goes se further east on the GEM which make less of it and results in the axis of the high not being tipped more unfavourably.

It manages to get that chunk of deep cold on its way sw before the shortwave issues.

I can't imagine the GEM will outfox the UKMO and GFS from this early a timeframe.

Och well, I'll go with what the GFS-MetO are saying, I think. Hopefully wrong, but history would back me, I believe...I very-much hope I'm wrong!

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

 

As for the GEM, well, stark raving bonkers!! 

Who knows, the Gem could be right, sometimes it performs as well as the so called big guns!

[SMU]

28 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Just anecdotal. But from what I've seen this winter GEM has been massively overdoing cold pools over Europe this winter. Yes I know that it has a reputation the other way around but has looked like it has been overdoing cold of late.

Hi mate its not that 'bias' thats causing it - its the way at T72 it breaks the vortex chunk off sending SW out of Russia, the GFS/UKMO send it SSE - hence on these 2 models we get a 'portion' of the cold-

GEM is 'just' about realistic given the available cold air from source & the minimal moderation along the track- however whilst realistic in scientific terms, in probability terms its the rank outsider - especially when in 24 hours the GFS/UKMO/ECM have all moved sightly away from that...

Nice to look at if you want to daydream.....

maxima for East kent sub -5c on the average +12\13c conversion rate....

Edited February 3, 2017 by Steve Murr

[Seasonality]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Hi mate its not that 'bias' thats causing it - its the way at T72 it breaks the vortex chunk off sending SW out of Russia, the GFS/UKMO send it SSE - hence on these 2 models we get a 'portion' of the cold-

GEM is 'just' about realistic given the available cold air from source & the minimal moderation along the track- however whilst realistic in scientific terms, in probability terms its the rank outsider - especially when in 24 hours the GFS/UKMO/ECM have all moved sightly away from that...

Nice to look at if you want to daydream.....

maxima for East kent sub -5c on the average +12\13c conversion rate....

Cheers Steve makes more sense now when outlined like that. Does the bias actually exist though? It sure has felt like that.

[SMU]

Updated JMA 12z 84 scoops up the vortex chunk SW just like the GEM--

[SMU]

12 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Cheers Steve makes more sense now when outlined like that. Does the bias actually exist though? It sure has felt like that.

Its ( mild ) bias does in Northerlies- lets hope easterlies as well

[bluearmy]

Looks a bit parky  next Sunday morning on the Canadian model !

Edited February 3, 2017 by bluearmy

[blizzard81]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Updated JMA 12z 84 scoops up the vortex chunk SW just like the GEM--

That's yesterday's 12z Steve.  What was I saying earlier about checking the models for yourself lol. 

[Buzz]

How can you tell when people are getting desperate? The GEM and JMA models are brought to the fore.

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Looks a bit parky  next Sunday morning on the Canadian model !

Looking at the height profiles and the surface contours combined with the 850's that would be one almighty blizzard rivaling 1987.

[Snowman31]

8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Updated JMA 12z 84 scoops up the vortex chunk SW just like the GEM--

But surely there is no chance of a  chunk of vortex going SW at such a short time 

[Seasonality]

Just now, Buzz said:

How can you tell when people are getting desperate? The GEM and JMA models are brought to the fore.

Lol. Jma is more respected than gem though. Still silly solutions. Both should go on the naughty step.

[MR EXTREMES]

stark differences between ukmo and gfs and gefs.

if the gfs is correct then the vortex quickly strengthens bringing real zonal west flow.

but at the moment the ukmo is best tonight,

but things are looking bit ify.

 ukmo has better lower heights to our south.

gfs sucking up straight southerly.

 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

Lol. Jma is more respected than gem though. Still silly solutions. Both should go on the naughty step.

It's yesterday's 12z chart unfortunately 

[Johnp]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

It's yesterday's 12z chart unfortunately 

Today's is good

 

[JamesL]

Much better alignment on the Jma akin to the Gem. 

[sorepaw1]

Looking at the  GFS 12z my spring daffodils might be in flower by next week .

Imo roll on a warm spring and summer .

[Daniel*]

10 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

That's yesterday's 12z Steve.  What was I saying earlier about checking the models for yourself lol. 

You like to tell porkies! It's explicit 03/02/17. I think you ought to think before you post.

 

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Today's is good

 

Nowhere near as good as yesterday's I am afraid. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

7 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Lol. Jma is more respected than gem though. Still silly solutions. Both should go on the naughty step.

CMA looking like it is following the silly solution too... I know it seems surreal, but we can't discount 3 models that have suddenly picked this up! I thought GEM was going to be the lone wolf! 

[frosty ground]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Nowhere near as good as yesterday's I am afraid. 

Of course not but why do you say that

[Johnp]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Nowhere near as good as yesterday's I am afraid. 

I didn't say it was?

Still a good chart in context of today's runs.