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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

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4 minutes ago, warrenb said:

UKMO very interesting, defo hints of retrogression, actually looking at all models in the <156 timeframe, I would say upgrades all round

 

UW144-21.GIF?03-17

Any ideas what the 850s are?

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1 minute ago, Mucka said:

GEM looking good at 120, pity it isn't one of the better models.

gemnh-0-120.png?12

Cold pool looks tasty there too!!

gemnh-1-120.thumb.png.84fd991365d7316a6fba0fb00ed29e30.png

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Just now, Mucka said:

GEM looking good at 120, pity it isn't one of the better models.

gemnh-0-120.png?12

Gem has been quite consistent though mucka in maintaining the cold easterly feed so would not write that off at all.

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2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

GM? 

GEM damn bluetooth keyboard

 

Remarkable that the storm that was due to go just south of us tomorrow earlier in the week is now looking like it will hit northern Spain and Southern France

Edited by warrenb

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Very cold air on the GEM...

gemfr-1-144.png?12gemfr-2-156.png?12

Edited by radiohead

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I do like the look of the UKMO 144. That high pressure to the North East is going all the way over the pole! The GEM, whilst looking good, seems a bit unrealistic to me.

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Just anecdotal. But from what I've seen this winter GEM has been massively overdoing cold pools over Europe this winter. Yes I know that it has a reputation the other way around but has looked like it has been overdoing cold of late.

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Jet not quite so strong on GFS at 198 so maybe won't just power over the top this time

12Z

gfs-5-198.thumb.png.a80025199cd9f496873d06bc5c8a20b6.png

06Z

gfs-5-204.thumb.png.6d0b90e6ae6f3608cde0ebfcd600fb67.png

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2 minutes ago, sawboinsider said:

Very cold pool on the GEM at t156

gemfr-1-156.png

Good old gem - bless

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Max temps of - 5to -8 if gem verifying lol

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That gem has snow making machine written all over it like 2010 did here and had over a meter of snow,will it happen again,possibly.

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Doesn't the GEM usually massively underestimate 850hPa temperatures? I know there's an issue with them so probably best not to take the temperatures too seriously.

Steady as she goes so far, not quite the beasterly the models were showing 2 days ago but certainly a step back towards something interesting after this mornings runs. Lets hope we see the ECM come on board, I'm always uneasy when one of the big three go against the other two, it's almost always right.

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Trying to take it easy this afternoon but the jet profile on the GFS run for day 9 is so much weaker and angled more toward Europe than the 06z, it really goes to show how no individual run can be trusted at the mo.

No images I'm afraid as I'm on mobile, getting back to chilling now, might comment on the ECM later.

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1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

Just anecdotal. But from what I've seen this winter GEM has been massively overdoing cold pools over Europe this winter. Yes I know that it has a reputation the other way around but has looked like it has been overdoing cold of late.

Gem is poor for upper resolution from the west and north re overstating  them and also does the opposite with a continental feed

havkng said that, if that solution veritied then those uppers wouldn't be far from the mark 

the chances of it verifying are still below 10% and probably dropping with each 12 hours 

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Awesome GEM as discussed above. It should be noted though that GFS is very underwhelming with a 3 day cold snap that delivers a few flurries in the East before the Atlantic comes back in. Fingers crossed for a better ECM tonight. 

 

IMG_6092.PNG

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Hmm, our HLB is slowly becoming a MLB. Run by run, little by little but the trend today has clearly been there.

It does look like some sort of colder spell is on the cards but it just feels like the best solutions are gradually being taken off the table and we are being nudged towards a standard winter cold spell.

It is all FI though and a few days ago it was looking very different to what were seeing now so much can change,

 

Edit: Seen GEM and discounted. Would love to be wrong!!

 

 

Edited by Jason M

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Just now, bluearmy said:

Gem is poor for upper resolution from the west and north re overstating  them and also does the opposite with a continental feed

havkng said that, if that solution veritied then those uppers wouldn't be far from the mark 

the chances of it verifying are still below 10% and probably dropping with each 12 hours 

Interesting. I wasn't aware it overdid things both ways. 

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