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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

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42 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

 sorry for this post but these over the top tweets that change like the wind have been a real blight of the winter model threads this winter..people hanging on every tweet and then posting it like its the gospel really has got to me this winter.. they change more often than the GFS has model runs..i think we should have a thread just for tweets... call it "tweets that never happen" thread..?? not a swipe at you Summer Sun in any way just frustrated with the constant stream of tweets saying this that and the other and none of it ever being anywhere near what happens etc..

 

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
    19 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

     

    I  cant believe some on this thread are still hanging their hopes on high pressure to the East?  One thing that has been solid consistency in the models and the Met is deep trough to the west of the UK...untill that high pressure relents to the east we will be stuck in milder air, we desperately need the troughs to clear east to give us a chance of a pm incursion...gfs tries it's best..easterly, no chance.

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    4 minutes ago, KTtom said:

    I  cant believe some on this thread are still hanging their hopes on high pressure to the East?  One thing that has been solid consistency in the models and the Met is deep trough to the west of the UK...untill that high pressure relents to the east we will be stuck in milder air, we desperately need the troughs to clear east to give us a chance of a pm incursion...gfs tries it's best..easterly, no chance.

    the way the models have been i cant believe anybody is even looking past t120 really.. the models have been so up and down this winter that who knows what is coming next..

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
    28 minutes ago, More Snow said:

    sorry for this post but these over the top tweets that change like the wind have been a real blight of the winter model threads this winter..people hanging on every tweet and then posting it like its the gospel really has got to me this winter.. they change more often than the GFS has model runs..i think we should have a thread just for tweets... call it "tweets that never happen" thread..?? not a swipe at you Summer Sun in any way just frustrated with the constant stream of tweets saying this that and the other and none of it ever being anywhere near what happens etc..

     

    the big patterns the models got right but the devil turned out to be in the details

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Turning a good deal wetter as we move into February probably a good job we've had a dry Autumn and a dry start to winter

    prec4.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
    13 minutes ago, KTtom said:

    I  cant believe some on this thread are still hanging their hopes on high pressure to the East?  One thing that has been solid consistency in the models and the Met is deep trough to the west of the UK...untill that high pressure relents to the east we will be stuck in milder air, we desperately need the troughs to clear east to give us a chance of a pm incursion...gfs tries it's best..easterly, no chance.

    I think its going to come from a Nly blast and Greenie high extending down. 

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    I've seen enough assumed very westerly spells get cut suddenly short to know that runs like the ECM are enough to bring the idea that the block will remain very close to our east into the frame.

    This doesn't promise cold conditions directly but does help with attacking the vortex from the Eurasian side and let's face it, we need all the help we can get!

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Looking at the ECM ensemble spreads, still a chance the jet might track further south which might bring the north of the UK into some colder conditions at times.

    If we see signs that the models might dislodge that PV lobe over east Canada then things could improve. As for Tweetgate I'm not a fan of Twitter as short statements don't provide enough detail and we've seen loads of apparently nailed on cold synoptics from the ECM bite the dust so shouldn't assume that this only happens one way, although the outlook isn't currently great I think its too early to rule out any cold before mid month.

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    Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK

    As much as I hate to say this, we need the wetter weather. I think a mild spell is due and the last couple of weeks down here have been bitter with a fair few frosts. February is an arkward month and we've been known to have snowy March's

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    Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay

    Looking at the latest gfs run that ridge of high pressure just keeps the worst of the wind and rain away from the SE corner. That second low looks nasty though with gale force winds and it's just outside 192 hours 

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    Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

    So Matthew Hugo predicts half of Feb could be wet windy ,no sign of any cold ,right I, m off out of here ,the guy is very knowledgeable but we will have some very cold air to our far north driving this cyclonic wintry spell and if we get lucky we have a good chance of the white stuff ,right I, m back ,don't give up this cyclonic spell could bring us what we desire ,cheers gang .:yahoo:

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Whilst the outlook remains the same, it is to be noted that the extended eps trend is along the lines of the latter frames of the op whereby those lower heights drop further south into France and Iberia. That will always give rise to runners in the base of the trough which at this time of year, could deliver some of the white stuff to the south of the uk whilst the northern half sit under cooler uppers anyway and cool zonality always carries potential. let's see if tomorrow's suites follow suit. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers and cold winters with snow.
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL

    More ridging to northeast on 18z if I am reading it right?

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    I can't believe more people are not seeing the trends today. The lovely negative tilt to the "attempted" Atlantic assault coupled with the ridging into north west scandi. I would advise some on here to look at the charts from yesterday at the 6 to 7 day timeframe and compare them to today's 5 to 6. You will see what I mean. Remember those long draw south westerlies the models were showing in the medium range 48 to 72 hours ago? Where are they now? Get my drift?

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Probably the booze speaking but I can see how MJO-driven amplification of the US pattern might cut off the feed of new lows into the trough in our vicinity, leaving it to slacken off with the jet meandering south and any residual shortwaves getting down into Europe a bit with fun and games on the north side... probs take until at least day 9 to come around though - if it does at all.

    If I keep scraping at the barrel...!

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summer, Cold winter
  • Location: Netherlands
    25 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    I can't believe more people are not seeing the trends today. The lovely negative tilt to the "attempted" Atlantic assault coupled with the ridging into north west scandi. I would advise some on here to look at the charts from yesterday at the 6 to 7 day timeframe and compare them to today's 5 to 6. You will see what I mean. Remember those long draw south westerlies the models were showing in the medium range 48 to 72 hours ago? Where are they now? Get my drift?

    Yep, saw that too. The big 3 are also fairly agreeing on this (T144) although ECM has, again, the most N movement.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: North Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms / Sunshine / Snow
  • Location: North Bristol

    I must admit I am still struggling to see much to be positive about (medium term at least) in terms of snow chances away from higher elevations further north. The only positive thing I can say from a personal point of view is that the stagnant pattern we have been in for a fair amount of time now is drawing to a close.

    The Jet Stream is modelled to fire up for a while and although it may be tracking a bit towards our South, deep LP systems are pushing in one after another in recent outputs and the 'block' is just causing them to end up loitering North of the UK. This is shown the GFS 18z, which continues with a very unsettled outlook. Who knows the slightly milder and more unsettled phase may not last as long as shown, but any attempted ridging over scandi keeps getting shoved away before it has chances to build. Perhaps the trend others are discussing above may mean something comes to fruition later on, but as an amateur I'm not seeing how at the moment with that Jet modelled to be so strong.

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summer, Cold winter
  • Location: Netherlands

    It seems to me that in most models a slight HP zone above Greenland steers the energie more southward and thus creates a delicate balance between the heavy atlantic and HP above the continent. I can imagine that a small difference in the upstream modelling will create a large difference in the downstream battle...

     

    ECMOPEU12_144_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    I am a bit more encouraged by the 12z EPS z500 mean this evening, with a ridge west from Scandi toward Greenland at day 10 and it's still there and still prominent days 11-15 too.

    ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png

    Which could indicate tentative signs that the displaced sPV may be altering the height fields to our N/NE with time, though the displacement is initially responsible for ramping up the Atlantic for at least a week and probably more, though at the same time shifting the jet south. More runs needed for a trend, but the ridging to the NE, although too far away to keep the Atlantic at bay form us, will help create wave propagation up towards the strat, perhaps an increase in wave 2 activity.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

    My thoughts remain. This didn't and doesn't have the feel of a standard zonal onslaught. The block looks set to bring the fight to the Atlantic. A more and more Southerly tracking jet has to remain a possibility. Let's see if it is something of nothing or the start of a trend...

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    Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Pembrokeshire

    Current cross model argreement - trending to something called loco-zonal - has anyone heard of this phrase to describe the current and projected synoptical situation - loco-zonal 

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
    1 minute ago, Jonathan Evans said:

    Current cross model argreement - trending to something called loco-zonal - has anyone heard of this phrase to describe the current and projected synoptical situation - loco-zonal 

    How about quasi-zonal.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)

    Just watching the GFS 0z roll out and looks like the Atlantic is struggling to get in even by Thursday.

    Just a hint of a negatively tilted low pressure dragging in winds just East of South over the UK.

    Might be reading this completely wrong but this does not look like your standard Zonal onslaught to me.  Changes could happen in a relatively short space of time to my untrained eye.

    EDIT The setup looks less favourable by around the 150 mark with the wind switching Southwesterly but the Atlantic is still not really getting any further than the North Sea and by 168 it's almost as if there is an actual European brick wall in place with long draw Southerlies stretching from the UK right up to Svalbard with the centre of the low still anchored West of Iceland.

    No point in looking any further ahead but the outlook remains far from what I would describe as zonal IMHO.....

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