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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


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42 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

 sorry for this post but these over the top tweets that change like the wind have been a real blight of the winter model threads this winter..people hanging on every tweet and then posting it like its the gospel really has got to me this winter.. they change more often than the GFS has model runs..i think we should have a thread just for tweets... call it "tweets that never happen" thread..?? not a swipe at you Summer Sun in any way just frustrated with the constant stream of tweets saying this that and the other and none of it ever being anywhere near what happens etc..

 

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Knee-jerk, a joke!?...if that is what you believe then simply don't follow. I was simply highlighting what the EC ENS are showing and to be honest certain people need to read before commentating, perh

Yes, I recognise these sage pieces of sentiment so well. The signals are always wrong, and the professionals (and others) who try to present and explain them, when an operational appears to take away

This is an unusual set up for the UK, hence the model variations. The bigger picture according to seriously knowledgeable people like @Tamara tends to suggest that the hemispheric factors that actuall

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19 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

I  cant believe some on this thread are still hanging their hopes on high pressure to the East?  One thing that has been solid consistency in the models and the Met is deep trough to the west of the UK...untill that high pressure relents to the east we will be stuck in milder air, we desperately need the troughs to clear east to give us a chance of a pm incursion...gfs tries it's best..easterly, no chance.

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4 minutes ago, KTtom said:

I  cant believe some on this thread are still hanging their hopes on high pressure to the East?  One thing that has been solid consistency in the models and the Met is deep trough to the west of the UK...untill that high pressure relents to the east we will be stuck in milder air, we desperately need the troughs to clear east to give us a chance of a pm incursion...gfs tries it's best..easterly, no chance.

the way the models have been i cant believe anybody is even looking past t120 really.. the models have been so up and down this winter that who knows what is coming next..

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28 minutes ago, More Snow said:

sorry for this post but these over the top tweets that change like the wind have been a real blight of the winter model threads this winter..people hanging on every tweet and then posting it like its the gospel really has got to me this winter.. they change more often than the GFS has model runs..i think we should have a thread just for tweets... call it "tweets that never happen" thread..?? not a swipe at you Summer Sun in any way just frustrated with the constant stream of tweets saying this that and the other and none of it ever being anywhere near what happens etc..

 

the big patterns the models got right but the devil turned out to be in the details

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13 minutes ago, KTtom said:

I  cant believe some on this thread are still hanging their hopes on high pressure to the East?  One thing that has been solid consistency in the models and the Met is deep trough to the west of the UK...untill that high pressure relents to the east we will be stuck in milder air, we desperately need the troughs to clear east to give us a chance of a pm incursion...gfs tries it's best..easterly, no chance.

I think its going to come from a Nly blast and Greenie high extending down. 

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I've seen enough assumed very westerly spells get cut suddenly short to know that runs like the ECM are enough to bring the idea that the block will remain very close to our east into the frame.

This doesn't promise cold conditions directly but does help with attacking the vortex from the Eurasian side and let's face it, we need all the help we can get!

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Looking at the ECM ensemble spreads, still a chance the jet might track further south which might bring the north of the UK into some colder conditions at times.

If we see signs that the models might dislodge that PV lobe over east Canada then things could improve. As for Tweetgate I'm not a fan of Twitter as short statements don't provide enough detail and we've seen loads of apparently nailed on cold synoptics from the ECM bite the dust so shouldn't assume that this only happens one way, although the outlook isn't currently great I think its too early to rule out any cold before mid month.

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As much as I hate to say this, we need the wetter weather. I think a mild spell is due and the last couple of weeks down here have been bitter with a fair few frosts. February is an arkward month and we've been known to have snowy March's

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Looking at the latest gfs run that ridge of high pressure just keeps the worst of the wind and rain away from the SE corner. That second low looks nasty though with gale force winds and it's just outside 192 hours 

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Probably the booze speaking but I can see how MJO-driven amplification of the US pattern might cut off the feed of new lows into the trough in our vicinity, leaving it to slacken off with the jet meandering south and any residual shortwaves getting down into Europe a bit with fun and games on the north side... probs take until at least day 9 to come around though - if it does at all.

If I keep scraping at the barrel...!

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25 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I can't believe more people are not seeing the trends today. The lovely negative tilt to the "attempted" Atlantic assault coupled with the ridging into north west scandi. I would advise some on here to look at the charts from yesterday at the 6 to 7 day timeframe and compare them to today's 5 to 6. You will see what I mean. Remember those long draw south westerlies the models were showing in the medium range 48 to 72 hours ago? Where are they now? Get my drift?

Yep, saw that too. The big 3 are also fairly agreeing on this (T144) although ECM has, again, the most N movement.

 

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I must admit I am still struggling to see much to be positive about (medium term at least) in terms of snow chances away from higher elevations further north. The only positive thing I can say from a personal point of view is that the stagnant pattern we have been in for a fair amount of time now is drawing to a close.

The Jet Stream is modelled to fire up for a while and although it may be tracking a bit towards our South, deep LP systems are pushing in one after another in recent outputs and the 'block' is just causing them to end up loitering North of the UK. This is shown the GFS 18z, which continues with a very unsettled outlook. Who knows the slightly milder and more unsettled phase may not last as long as shown, but any attempted ridging over scandi keeps getting shoved away before it has chances to build. Perhaps the trend others are discussing above may mean something comes to fruition later on, but as an amateur I'm not seeing how at the moment with that Jet modelled to be so strong.

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It seems to me that in most models a slight HP zone above Greenland steers the energie more southward and thus creates a delicate balance between the heavy atlantic and HP above the continent. I can imagine that a small difference in the upstream modelling will create a large difference in the downstream battle...

 

ECMOPEU12_144_1.png

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I am a bit more encouraged by the 12z EPS z500 mean this evening, with a ridge west from Scandi toward Greenland at day 10 and it's still there and still prominent days 11-15 too.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png

Which could indicate tentative signs that the displaced sPV may be altering the height fields to our N/NE with time, though the displacement is initially responsible for ramping up the Atlantic for at least a week and probably more, though at the same time shifting the jet south. More runs needed for a trend, but the ridging to the NE, although too far away to keep the Atlantic at bay form us, will help create wave propagation up towards the strat, perhaps an increase in wave 2 activity.

 

 

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My thoughts remain. This didn't and doesn't have the feel of a standard zonal onslaught. The block looks set to bring the fight to the Atlantic. A more and more Southerly tracking jet has to remain a possibility. Let's see if it is something of nothing or the start of a trend...

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1 minute ago, Jonathan Evans said:

Current cross model argreement - trending to something called loco-zonal - has anyone heard of this phrase to describe the current and projected synoptical situation - loco-zonal 

How about quasi-zonal.

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Just watching the GFS 0z roll out and looks like the Atlantic is struggling to get in even by Thursday.

Just a hint of a negatively tilted low pressure dragging in winds just East of South over the UK.

Might be reading this completely wrong but this does not look like your standard Zonal onslaught to me.  Changes could happen in a relatively short space of time to my untrained eye.

EDIT The setup looks less favourable by around the 150 mark with the wind switching Southwesterly but the Atlantic is still not really getting any further than the North Sea and by 168 it's almost as if there is an actual European brick wall in place with long draw Southerlies stretching from the UK right up to Svalbard with the centre of the low still anchored West of Iceland.

No point in looking any further ahead but the outlook remains far from what I would describe as zonal IMHO.....

Edited by Kentish Snowman
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