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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

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34 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

So what we looking for in the 12z, I personally think the Ops may improve again, more inline with the ENS anyway - we seem to lose continental flow around day 8 however so I'd be surprised if that doesn't happen.  We may start seeing PV break up in deep FI too IF the SSW start showing its hand, just a shame we can't hold onto the Scandy high till then - or can we.

The models already take into account any SSW as part of the information that it shows on its output so in theory the output we see is what the models think the SSW will produce in the trop.... Amongst other factors of course.

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4 minutes ago, warrenb said:

The top chart is wind speed in metres per second

LOL so it is, not sure how I managed that. General tiredness and model fatigue. Thanks I will edit.

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1 minute ago, Frostbite1980 said:

The models already take into account any SSW as part of the information that it shows on its output so in theory the output we see is what the models think the SSW will produce in the trop.... Amongst other factors of course.

But perhaps not in the same holistic, hopeful way that we do? The algorithms work in the same way as they usually do (I hope!:D)...How can they differentiate between the start of a SSW and a random fluctuation/data-reading error?

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5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

But perhaps not in the same holistic, hopeful way that we do? The algorithms work in the same way as they usually do (I hope!:D)...How can they differentiate between the start of a SSW and a random fluctuation/data-reading error?

Now that I have no idea :) maybe historic data from similar events? Whatever it is hopefully it goes in our favour......

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1 minute ago, Frostbite1980 said:

Now that I have no idea :) maybe historic data from similar events? Whatever it is hopefully it goes in our favour......

In that case, we well might be in the same boat!:D 

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An early look at  GFS and it seems to be going off on another path completely now

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1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

Nothing goes into the input of any weather computer other than the current data from whatever source. There is NO historic data of any kind input on any run.

Those who may not believe this then turn to the Met O page on computers or the ECMWF one.

 

Well that would mean the current SSW will be taken into account by the models and the output being shown by them is how they see the effects of said SSW on the trop taking place (amongst other factors). 

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The cold pool to the East, seems to be more extensive and deeper when comparing 12z with earlier. No idea whether this will mean we get to tap in to it though.

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4 minutes ago, warrenb said:

An early look at  GFS and it seems to be going off on another path completely now

And in English what does this mean? Or do we have to second guess?

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gfsnh-0-120.png?12

 

Slightly better aligned than the 06z and with more vertical WAA poleward so at least we have stopped going backwards for now.

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1 minute ago, mulzy said:

And in English what does this mean? Or do we have to second guess?

It means it is different to the last run? So is the UKMO which has phased the two lows associated with the cold pool in Russia this time giving a different orientation to the block - no idea whether this is good or bad - let's see.

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2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

And in English what does this mean? Or do we have to second guess?

One may wish to enhance ones calm

The cold pool in Europe is far more extensive, so even with a slight push from the W at 144 -10 is knocking at the door. seems to be a more straight edge to the block also

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12z takes more energy west if Iceland with more waa and the waa further west all in the sub t144 reliable timeframe. 

For me that then classifies as a good 12z gfs come what mAy after that. 

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5 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

Well that would mean the current SSW will be taken into account by the models and the output being shown by them is how they see the effects of said SSW on the trop taking place (amongst other factors). 

I believe that is correct, see my latest edit for the top level of input for each run

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gfsnh-0-144.png?12

144 all about the undercut from here. Could be a classic rain/snow East/West North/South battle 

 

Pretty good agreement with UKMO 144

UN144-21.GIF?03-17

I would take this after this mornings output.

Edited by Mucka

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4 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

Well that would mean the current SSW will be taken into account by the models and the output being shown by them is how they see the effects of said SSW on the trop taking place (amongst other factors). 

I think it would, yes, but not in the way we see it; the models' computer algorithms are not yet able to think, in the abstract, human sense...? We, on that other hand, can - and do - come up with any number of snow-yielding scenarios!:D

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12z shows the more extensive cold pool over Denrmak, Norway etc. With colder 850's on our doorstep. When comparing to same time frame on 6z

12z-144.png

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

I think it would, yes, but not in the way we see it; the models' computer algorithms are not yet able to think, in the abstract, human sense...? We, on that other hand, can - and do - come up with any number of snow-yielding scenarios!:D

Thanks Ed......ps you crack me up :rofl:

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UKMO very interesting, defo hints of retrogression, actually looking at all models in the <156 timeframe, I would say upgrades all round

 

UW144-21.GIF?03-17

Edited by warrenb

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The Azores High extends a tongue towards Iceland at 168h, which might actually help us for a change.

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GEM looking good at 120, pity it isn't one of the better models.

gemnh-0-120.png?12

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