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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


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Knee-jerk, a joke!?...if that is what you believe then simply don't follow. I was simply highlighting what the EC ENS are showing and to be honest certain people need to read before commentating, perh

Yes, I recognise these sage pieces of sentiment so well. The signals are always wrong, and the professionals (and others) who try to present and explain them, when an operational appears to take away

This is an unusual set up for the UK, hence the model variations. The bigger picture according to seriously knowledgeable people like @Tamara tends to suggest that the hemispheric factors that actuall

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    6 minutes ago, Stephen W said:

    I'm no expert but in the the start thread, I've read that the ECMWF was predicting a fairly swift recovery of the strat polar vortex. Isn't this what it shows this morning with a stronger northern arm of the jet present in the latter stages of the run?

    Yes, I am wondering the same.

    On the positive though, the ECM is churning out a stunning mean chart at T144/T168

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Ecm mean is great.

    Back in the game!!

    :pardon:

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Ecm mean is great.

    Back in the game!!

    Your not wrong, Op must be a big big warm outlier you would think but no shown on latest de Bilt run

    IMG_4150.PNG

    168 mean 850s are v good

    IMG_4151.PNG

    Edited by Ali1977
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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    The problem wrt the Strat warming it only gives a limited window for Arctic blocking before the vortex will reform.We are a bit unlucky with this one in the way the  trop. vortex has split leaving the main segment to our north west so the Scandi block is always under pressure from the west.

    UN120-21.GIF?03-06

    Looking at this mornings outputs we still look likely to go colder next week but the Scandi high is shown to extend south cutting off the supply of deep cold

    ECH1-144.GIF?03-12

    so this phase of cold looks to be more likely to be a dry and cold continental south easterly.We do need to see better trough disruption heading into southern europe before we lose the block otherwise the chance of a deep cold easterly will disappear. 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    Your not wrong, Op must be a big big warm outlier you would think but no shown on latest de Bilt run

    IMG_4150.PNG

    Its very much at the top end though, some really cold uns in there!

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    3 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

    OMG ECM MEAN IS INCREDIBLE.  168HRS BOOOM

    EDM1-168.GIF

    That mean chart does not discount the southerly shown by the op at the same timeframe though- far from it. On a positive note, the 850s are better than the op...

    EDM0-168.GIF?03-12

    Still it's all very knife edge and we remain right on the periphery

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    Your not wrong, Op must be a big big warm outlier you would think but no shown on latest de Bilt run

    IMG_4150.PNG

    Same argument as last night could well be surface cold that chart dont reflect 850 temps but this does.

     

    EDM0-168 (1).gif

    EDM0-192 (1).gif

    Edited by booferking
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    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
    11 minutes ago, booferking said:

    The mean ECM @144 LOOKS GREAT..   168 BELOW LOOKS EVEN BETTER

    EDM1-144.gif

    EDM1-168 (1).gif

    EDM1-192.gif

    EDM1-216.gif

    Wow what an excellent mean. Just like I said the Azores sent packing 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
    9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    Your not wrong, Op must be a big big warm outlier you would think but no shown on latest de Bilt run

    IMG_4150.PNG

    168 mean 850s are v good

    IMG_4151.PNG

    Yes you can see ECM in the medium to latter the op is sitting at the top end of the pack

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Looks very dependant on some energy being sent SE from the Icelandic low under the UK, which then props the high up a lot better. What a headache!

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Looks pretty dry though with a south easterly feed but that low pressure system over Spain could be interesting if it moves north !! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    A few cracks appearing this morning.

    Will remain sceptical myself until the METO get on board.

    Media forecasts are suggesting a dryer, colder period which would suggest that they are seeing things considerably watered down compared to the publicly available models.

    I wouldn't rule a cold spell, perhaps even a significant one, but some expectation management might not be a bad thing at this range.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
    33 minutes ago, booferking said:

    The mean ECM @144 LOOKS GREAT..   168 BELOW LOOKS EVEN BETTER

    EDM1-144.gif

    EDM1-168 (1).gif

    EDM1-192.gif

    EDM1-216.gif

    Goes to show you can't take one operational in isolation no matter what it Shows! Thank heavens for the mean.:clap:

    Edited by snowice
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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    I sat reading most of the mornings posts with a degree of incredulity. 

    Ecm had been rather inconsistent in its output the trend has always been to increase the affects of the high in the key t120-140 timeframe. And guess what the ops is a major outlier in both 850s and northern jet output. 

    Model output will chop and change a bit but concentrating on single model outliers whether they be cold mild unstable or not will lead to poor forecasting imho. 

    IMG_0736.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.

    0z GEFS mean. Although not always clear from the Op runs, the cold is slowly creeping further west. Nothing spectacular showing yet, though.5894463764892_gefs_t2anom_16_eur_1(3).thumb.png.aa88473f7397712f75b8799daa7f0458.png

     

    Screen Shot 2017-02-02 at 13.56.57.png

    Edited by jvenge
    wrong chart
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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    44 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    I disagree mate. It matters not one jot if that high sets up too far east IF you get the correct profile to the west of the HP cell. To embellish this point, if you get a perfect split flow in jet energy, you will see low pressure disrupt favourably along the southern arm, whilst the northern arm recurves at the other terminus of the HP cell (also known as a retrograde jet or 'reverse zonal'). Both of these arms of the jet in tandem work to pull the HP back west. 

    If the profile to the west of the HP is not correct/favourable you get changes in the distribution of jet energy which then has a knock on effect to the shape and rigour of the HP. What started off as a well rounded block becomes uneven and unbalanced, often aligning poorly for us and thwarting CAA into the UK. You have more wriggle room further E in Europe but in our location we often lie on the periphery as it is.

    It's why a spectacular E'ly is so rare to get in the UK...because they require the perfect split in jet energy. Otherwise you end up with these one or two day wonders that we see slightly more frequently.

    I am not sure what you disagree with to be honest

    Of course it matters if the high set's up to far east, if the block is further east you get more of an atlantic influence regardless of the shape of the high. If you get a perfect split flow but the UK is on the wrong side of it then it matters not how cold the air is out east as the atlantic will be influencing our weather. As for a retrogressing high, i've seen very little evidence for that (besides a some ensembles and the occasional op run) and that's even rarer than an actual easterly for the obvious reason not all easterly lead to retrogression. 

    Then again none of this deals with my actual comment that the Azores high in this case is not the driver and what we are seeing is ridges ahead of the any trough disruption

    ECM1-120.GIF?03-12

    Block to the east is more important aka the driving factor 




     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
    2 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

    What I find absolutely hilarious here is the amount people analyse every single run as Gospel. One minute you look and people panic about the ecm run and then the next minute another model run comes out and you see boom, back in the game etc. I don't no weather I'm coming or going half the time. It's coming people just relax a little they are just variations of the theme not a definite cert!!! I will now go back into the background lol

    Yes mark I couldn't agree more, now disappear back into your cave!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
    2 minutes ago, jvenge said:

    0z GEFS mean. Although not always clear from the Op runs, the cold is slowly creeping further west. Nothing spectacular showing yet, though.5894463764892_gefs_t2anom_16_eur_1(3).thumb.png.aa88473f7397712f75b8799daa7f0458.png

     

    Screen Shot 2017-02-02 at 13.56.57.png

    Can a mod delete the old chart, no matter how many times i edit it, it just turns up again..

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    What do we make of these tweets...I'm unsure.

    IMG_4153.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    A couple of things stand out to me this morning with respect to the longer-term;

    - All models have trended toward not only precenting the vortexlpbe over Asia from lifting out, but moving it west toward Scandinavia with time - even ECM before it went awry.

    - The way GFS breaks down the Atlantic westerlies again soon past day 10 and initiates a new period of undercuts is very much in line with upcoming MJO forcing and GLAAM changes.

    Combine the two and eyebrows lift into orbit... but it seems that westerly push is of debateable mangnitude and a quick alignment with the (probably also temporarily) recovering stratospheric vortex could leave the MJO with a lot of work to do. As much as ECM has come up with seems a bit over the top though!

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
    2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    What do we make of these tweets...I'm unsure.

    IMG_4153.PNG

    I'd say, outcome not likely to be quite as good as UKMO but not as bad as ECM either (8 is a minority cluster).

    After all the ECM op went outside the ensemble spread which is a trait I've seen it display for 3 or even 4 runs in a row in some previous occasions. Strange I know!

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