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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

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  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Standard GFS when it goes zonal there....rinse and repeat ad nauseum. It's normally quite slow at picking up changes. I don't think anybody here really believed we were going to get zonal weather for weeks on end (unlike our friends/'experts' over at accuweather, who said 3/4 named storms this month). As it happens, all we've had is about a week of it to contend with again, before everything has returned blocked. This winter just isn't normal at all.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    So this mornings models,

    GFS and UKMO

    gfs-0-144.png  UW144-21.GIF?03-06

    Pretty close with the cold pool exiting the low countries, cold getting into the UK.

    GEM

    gem-0-144.png?00

    Too far south with the cold air, the UK kind of only gets glanced by the first attempt, at least there is some re-enforcement from the east.

    ECM

    ECM1-144.GIF?03-12

    The cold pool has stalled over the Baltic sea, at least it is a better effort than yesterdays 12z I guess.

    A lot to be resolved though but 2 models do see things turning very cold from the middle of next week with the risk of a little snow. The other two will be chilly but the depth of cold is less certain,

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    ECM is heading in the right direction!! 120hrs out it has sub -10 uppers queueing at the shores of Holland, Germany and scandi and then getting into eastern England at 144. Excellent stuff. 

    Hats off to Gavin partridges winter forecast by the way, as he said there was a real possibility of cold shots from the east throughout the winter, From back in December, having taken into account every scrap of data and anomalies to the build up. 

    Also greatly appreciate superior knowledge from the experts to my mind in here too (fergie, Steve Murr, Nick F + L, TEITS, Tamara etc) :D 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Although not a fantastic 144 if we can get the Atlantic low to split from the PV and head south we may get a good second bite of the cherry 

    IMG_4146.PNG

    Slight backtrack for mid next week I think, it'll still be cold but not the prolonged Easterly feed I don't think - more opportunities ahead though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    ECM takes winds S'ly and lifts the cold pool away (rather like a more progressive GFS 0z). However, it follows the trend of holding the block further N, so longer term we remain in the game rather than a quick waft from the E before a sink of the HP

    ECH0-168.GIF?03-12

    ECH1-168.GIF?03-12

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    ECM very progressive - no cold uppers in the UK by day 7 - could be temporary though.  Need the low to move east south east rather than south.

    ECMOPEU00_168_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

    Well a bit of a sobering morning after last night's Party!  Still a bit early to be handing out congratulations over the easterly, tonight's runs all important to see if this mornings less potent runs are a trend or a one off....cold but dry definitely the form horse in my eyes by next weekend. 

     

    Ecm is an absolute horror for snow potential.sub -5 uppers barely touch the uk for the entire run!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    The ECM is a bit of a horror show this morning - no real cold at all (bar a fleeting glance), and everything collapses. Here's hoping we've got a mild outlier!

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    Just now, mb018538 said:

    The ECM is a bit of a horror show this morning - no cold at all, and everything collapses. Here's hoping we've got a mild outlier!

    Actually quite hideous at day 9...it just all falls apart

    ECH1-216.GIF?03-12

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    I'm hoping this mornings trend is t the correct one - only 1 run I guess. Warm outlier hopefully 

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    I'm hoping this mornings trend is t the correct one - only 1 run I guess. Warm outlier hopefully 

    Well if we do end up back here-

    ECH1-240.GIF?03-12

    A lot of people are going to scream

    You can actually trace back the issue to 72 hrs across most of the models...I'll use ECM 72 hr as an example. We see here a pretty much perfect shaped HP for funnelling cold- however it is just too far E. Ordinarily this wouldn't be an issue as it should naturally back west with Atlantic trough disruption. BUT a combination of Azores HP interference (stopping a clean SE ejection of energy) and a pretty intense area of low heights at the eastern end serve to disrupt the balance of the HP. The Azores interference probably the main player here as it completely inhibits enough energy ejection on the SW flank of the high in any semblance of a clean way.

    ECH1-72.GIF?03-12

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C3RLnw0XUAAnScQ.jpg:large

    I'm
    not sure if anything has changed in the last week with regards to this forecast, but the PV was forecast to rebound to positive by mid month? Hopefully that ECM run is far, far too progressive! Worst run we've seen for days!

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Coldies should be concerned at the operational ec and gfsp wanting to push too much into the northern arm post day 8. This is becoming a consistent theme on the para and last two ec ops.  With the eps trending towards a better split flow, I would hope the op would be following. 

    could become a situation where the snow potential  arrives earlier than expected and leaves earlier too with mid month back to MLB's etc

    and the snow potential is so uncertain - pinning our hopes on a possible small upper cold pool to strike for some instability  is typical of this winter I guess. so I'm afraid without the ops trending the split flow more se into Europe and the Russian lobe sending anything sw, those euro heights will not be low enough and my fence sitting will resume.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Well if we do end up back here-

    ECH1-240.GIF?03-12

    A lot of people are going to scream

    This is a very plausible outcome for D10, because the vortex by Greenland is consistently getting beefed up now from D8 onwards, and the Azores High wants to send a ridge underneath it. If a cold pool is going to get to us, we'd better hope it happens between D5 and D9, because I don't fancy our chances beyond that.

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    At 240 hours out, I wouldn't be throwing my toys out of the pram. The closer timeframe is still looking promising. 

    Come this evening, it will probably be different! Hardly surprising, given the complexity of the forecast. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
    11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Well if we do end up back here-

    ECH1-240.GIF?03-12

    A lot of people are going to scream

    Find it hilarious people using words like "poor" and "horror show" ! Yes the ECM isn't quite the 1963 type effort but still a variation of the same thing. Northerly blocking, scandi high in place and bitter Europe. I for one knew we wouldn't get run after run of holy grail type charts as soon as it picked up the trend of a scandi high. 

    It takes time to work out what surface conditions will be like next wk and just enjoy the ride rather than getting hung up over one run, and why? Because it's only valid for 12 hrs. In fact it's only valid until the ensembles come out and we see where it lies! Any-huu. . . 

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    3 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

    Find it hilarious people using words like "poor" and "horror show" ! Yes the ECM isn't quite the 1963 type effort but still a variation of the same thing. Northerly blocking, scandi high in place and bitter Europe. I for one new we wouldn't get run after run of holy grail type charts as soon as it picked up the trend of a scandi high. 

    It takes time to work out what surface conditions will be like next wk and just enjoy the ride rather than getting hung up over one run, and why? Because it's only valid for 12 hrs. In fact it's only valid until the ensembles come out and we see where it lies! Any-huu. . . 

    Note Nick's (Bluearmy) post above. It's not one run.

    If there was a feasible Achilles heel to a decent and long lived cold spell, this was it. I, for one, have been warning of the possibility for a couple of days, along with Nick. Others may have pointed out the possibility too.

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    rThis is the best chart of the day from UKMO and now with-in the reliable time span at 144t. Good to see the Scandinavian high holding its position and looks to be moving slightly poleward (NW), which must be a good thing for the longer term outlook. Also seems to be some colder air aloft moving towards SE Britain associated withf the lower heights over mainland Euroland which should give some snow in this location. Best chart of the season from UKMO this morning FOR YOU GUYS.

    c

     C

    UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl

    The UKMO and ECM at 144hr

    ECH1-144.gif.thumb.png.70951bd967bedbf9dea01d620999ab6b.png

    UN144-21.thumb.gif.473528a11a8d78fef728ff15cc7a1338.gif

    The UKMO appears to have more of a robust block around Scandinavia which should hold the Atlantic troughs back and amplify the pattern again.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    The main differences with the ECM against the UKMO this morning is the battle between low pressure to the west and the high to the east. ECM has the Icelandic low at 965mb and the high further east. UKMO keeps the high closer by and in greater control. We need to high to hold out here and fight the Atlantic back!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
    9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Coldies should be concerned at the operational ec and gfsp wanting to push too much into the northern arm post day 8. This is becoming a consistent theme on the para and last two ec ops.  With the eps trending towards a better split flow, I would hope the op would be following. 

    could become a situation where the snow potential  arrives earlier than expected and leaves earlier too with mid month back to MLB's etc

    and the snow potential is so uncertain - pinning our hopes on a possible small upper cold pool to strike for some instability  is typical of this winter I guess. so I'm afraid without the ops treading the split flow more se into Europe and the Russian lobe sending anything sw, those euro heights will not be low enough and my fence sitting will resume.

     

    8 hours ago, Nick F said:

    Also worth noting general model agreement that the deep very cold upper air pouring southeast out over the  Atlantic from northern Canada/Labrador/Greenland will actually help force the strong jet stream on a SE trajectory towards SW Europe rather all the jet energy sliding N/NE up the western side of the block over Scandi. A crucial part of the jigsaw, as well as the deep cold pool advecting west under the block, to get us on the road to cold and snowy nirvana. However, the detail at the surface is far from resolved and will make all the difference to peoples hopes.

    gfsgif_500.thumb.gif.38514d77382a8cd61e7a4b4f2d03a5dd.gif

    An almost completely different view on things there regarding the route of the jet stream, one thinking the northern arm is gaining mementom and one thinking it will help in digging it southeast rather north, none of us know at this range and the cold spell isn't even in place yet, but how many times do we see the block underestimated, especially  this year so let's not get carried away with eps at 216 hrs showing the high collapse I can guarantee you all that won't happen it's been the most stubborn theme of the season 

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Shall we look at a good chart,who cares if it doesn't verify

    C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_gfsnh-0-372.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    1 hour ago, jvenge said:

    Personally expecting changes from the ECM in the near term, inside 5 days. It was quite slow bringing the cold into Europe on the 12z compared to its 0z and other model output. 

    Me too, constant chopping and changing run to run. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 minute ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

     

    An almost completely different view on things there regarding the route of the jet stream, one thinking the northern arm is gaining mementom and one thinking it will help in digging it southeast rather north, none of us know at this range and the cold spell isn't even in place yet, but how many times do we see the block underestimated, especially  this year so let's not get carried away with eps at 216 hrs showing the high collapse I can guarantee you all that won't happen it's been the most stubborn theme of the season 

    The influence of the Azores HP and its effects of encouraging just too much jet N is a trend that's been there for 36 hours or so. You can look back in the thread because it was pointed out a fair few pages back. 

    The fact that this pivotal part of the evolution happens at just 3 days out should set at least some alarm bells ringing. Even in the worst case scenario, it doesn't mean we're precluded another push from the E/NE later on as I don't think this will be the only spell of interest in the coming weeks (and with that the 9 &10 day ECM look questionable to me in terms of going forward).

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