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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


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Knee-jerk, a joke!?...if that is what you believe then simply don't follow. I was simply highlighting what the EC ENS are showing and to be honest certain people need to read before commentating, perh

Yes, I recognise these sage pieces of sentiment so well. The signals are always wrong, and the professionals (and others) who try to present and explain them, when an operational appears to take away

This is an unusual set up for the UK, hence the model variations. The bigger picture according to seriously knowledgeable people like @Tamara tends to suggest that the hemispheric factors that actuall

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3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

A pretty decent run from GFS operational for cold and snow up to day 10, my only criticism is that it doesn't push low heights/pressure far enough east across the Mediterranean in later part of medium range to stop the Scandi ridge  from extending south across eastern Europe  - which cuts off the deep cold advecting west from Russia. But that will quite possibly change.

Yep, ideally would like to see that addressed. Stop that high from sagging and the mind boggles at the depth of cold we could see. A big hurdle to clear though!

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The overall evolution is still looking very positive for a cold and snowy setup but don't get too hung up on details as there will be surprises aplenty!

Trough disruption is inherently very difficult to pin down when continental cold airmasses are involved; typically the trough stretches on a NW-SE axis and then the secondary circulation developing at the base of this breaks away from the parent low and heads SE or ESE.

High model resolution is a great help for resolving these things but even then, the full splitting away of a secondary low seems to be something the models struggle to resolve until relatively short notice - sometimes just a day or two before the time.

The pattern is looking fine and the old adage of get the cold in first and wait for snowy surprises applies in spades at the moment.

Enjoy...:cold::cold::D

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Ok, I'm now beginning to have confidence in seeing some of the white stuff! Given the fact that we could be seeing it as early as 3 days time on some runs.

Some very interesting things to keep an eye on though in the meantime regarding the positioning, direction and intensity of these low pressures, which could have implications on how early/late we will see the cold arriving.

The fact that we are about to be seeing -10 uppers knocking on our door for the first time since 2013 is delightful in itself! 

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Can't post charts on this device but from what I've seen tonight I'm not going to dust the sleigh off yet. IMO we'll end up with a slack continental drift into principally Eastern and NE areas with nothing more than a flurry of snow from low stratus type cloud while the South and West remain on the periphery of milder Atlantic air encroachment. I will add that I don't see that encroachment as a major battleground scenario as I feel pressure will be too high to the SW forcing the Jet Stream to be pushed NE to the NW of Britain and not allowing enough energy under the ridge or undercutting as is the term used here. So rather cold and principally dry is the overall message. Not saying I'm right but taking all models and output as a whole on tonight's 12zs I think that's where this will end up by the end of next week.

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3 minutes ago, Gibby said:

Can't post charts on this device but from what I've seen tonight I'm not going to dust the sleigh off yet. IMO we'll end up with a slack continental drift into principally Eastern and NE areas with nothing more than a flurry of snow from low stratus type cloud while the South and West remain on the periphery of milder Atlantic air encroachment. I will add that I don't see that encroachment as a major battleground scenario as I feel pressure will be too high to the SW forcing the Jet Stream to be pushed NE to the NW of Britain and not allowing enough energy under the ridge or undercutting as is the term used here. So rather cold and principally dry is the overall message. Not saying I'm right but taking all models and output as a whole on tonight's 12zs I think that's where this will end up by the end of next week.

The models may look even better tomorrow etc..right now it's very good to be a coldie looking at these wonderful charts from various models..hopefully much more to come!:cold-emoji:

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31 minutes ago, Nouska said:

I hope you guys realise I'm sacrificing my roof in order to set up your easterly. :p

tempresult_msn8.gif

 

31 minutes ago, Nouska said:

I hope you guys realise I'm sacrificing my roof in order to set up your easterly. :p

tempresult_msn8.gif

Looks like France will take a right battering!!!!

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26 minutes ago, Nouska said:

I hope you guys realise I'm sacrificing my roof in order to set up your easterly. :p

tempresult_msn8.gif

Ouch, I heard rumours there may be a sting jet on the back of Saturday's low that could bring gusts to 100mph along coast of western France. But hopefully you, Nick Sussex and any other expats in France on here will be spared such violent winds!

Back to the 18z, pretty reasonable GEFS support that we will be in a deep cold and perhaps snowy easterly flow come next Thursday

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1 minute ago, Mucka said:

GFS ensembles are stunning.

Lots of undercut and retrogression within hi res so easily the best set yet.

Await tomorrow mornings output with interest :)

As reflected in the 850s mean....a solid improvement from recent suites. Remember though, it can just easily slip the other way again!

gensnh-21-0-174.png

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2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS ensembles are stunning.

Lots of undercut and retrogression within hi res so easily the best set yet.

Await tomorrow mornings output with interest :)

Yes Mucka they are magnificent, hoping for more of the same! can't get enough of these superb charts! :- )

Sweet dreams coldies:D

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11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes Mucka they are magnificent, hoping for more of the same! can't get enough of these superb charts! :- )

Sweet dreams coldies:D

:ninja:

Im on nights but i certainly am NOT looking at the 00z runs til i get home im sure im some kind of hex..

Massive 00z runs coming up!

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