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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    10 minutes ago, mulzy said:

    The APERGE remains fairly blocked at 114 hrs - it's rather on it's own at the moment.

    arpegeeur2-0-114.png?12

    Yes, looks like the high is going to be more resilient on the next few runs. Could again hold up zonal thrust . Very similar from UKMO at 96 hours. The Sunday rain extent northwards is still not determined , could be delayed or move further south.. The main Atlantic jet on APERGE is diving well south at 106t. Have a feeling the robust nature of the block is going to cause some problems to the models this weekend.

     C

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    1 minute ago, mulzy said:

    The APERGE remains fairly blocked at 114 hrs - it's rather on it's own at the moment.

    arpegeeur2-0-114.png?12

    The GEM  keeps it blocked too with high pressure building over Svalbard.

    gemnh-0-240.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl

    A bit more positive on the 12z..The ECM joins in with a bit more amplification to the NE.

     

    ECH1-120.gif.png

    ECH1-144.gif.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Truro
  • Weather Preferences: winter and summer
  • Location: Truro

    As does the ECM at 144.  That's where we want to see the hights head too and see the lows slip south and east deep in to Europe and hopefully propping up the high.

    IMG_0974.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

    I love the look of that evolution, I really do... It's only going one way, low pressure will undercut the high and drag continental air westward.

    Problem is, I don't believe the evolution!

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    Trough disrupting south east. No cold air to tap into, and no support from UKMO or GFS but we have to start somewhere!

    ECMOPEU12_144_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(

    There is nothing to tap into by this time though, Europe is well and truly out of the freezer

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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
    1 minute ago, chris55 said:

    Trough disrupting south east. No cold air to tap into, and no support from UKMO or GFS but we have to start somewhere!

    ECMOPEU12_144_1.png

    I think we're been led up the garden path again.

    Good to look at though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    9 minutes ago, Nicholas B said:

    There is nothing to tap into by this time though, Europe is well and truly out of the freezer

    Maybe western Europe. Still colder further east.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Consistency from the ECM and other outputs when you don't want it! Theres no chance of anything developing till that chunk of PV over eastern Canada leaves the scene or gets pulled much further to the nw.

    Scraping the bottom of the optimism barrel the ECM T240hrs is a slight improvement on the previous 216 hours of horror.

    At this point we're relying on several warmings of the strat and the MJO to bring about a change in a few weeks time.

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    Very interesting ecm. The Atlantic powering through is not the way I saw next week panning out. The ecm seems to be seeing things the same way :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Consistency from the ECM and other outputs when you don't want it! Theres no chance of anything developing till that chunk of PV over eastern Canada leaves the scene or gets pulled much further to the nw.

    Scraping the bottom of the optimism barrel the ECM T240hrs is a slight improvement on the previous 216 hours of horror.

    At this point we're relying on several warmings of the strat and the MJO to bring about a change in a few weeks time.

    216 hours of horror? A tad dramatic considering the different slant the ecm takes this evening.

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Consistency from the ECM and other outputs when you don't want it! Theres no chance of anything developing till that chunk of PV over eastern Canada leaves the scene or gets pulled much further to the nw.

    Scraping the bottom of the optimism barrel the ECM T240hrs is a slight improvement on the previous 216 hours of horror.

    At this point we're relying on several warmings of the strat and the MJO to bring about a change in a few weeks time.

    The ecm is an improvement on this morning's run. The Atlantic is hitting a brick wall and consequently running out of steam big style.

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    Posted
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWY WINTERS AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT

    ecm maybe another garden path however i wouldn't totally discount it.interesting outlook from met office on there 16 30day for cold.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

    216 hours of horror? A tad dramatic considering the different slant the ecm takes this evening.

    Lol! no the PV chunk in Canada is piling bombs eastwards and flattening the pattern which makes it difficult to get enough trough disruption and low heights getting well into central/southern Europe.

    Theres nothing interesting about the ECM unless you like lots of wind and rain. The ECM at day ten looks better than the previous 9 days in terms of overall NH pattern.

    The ensembles might have some more interesting solutions , I'm just commenting on the op which isn't up to much re cold.

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
    15 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Consistency from the ECM and other outputs when you don't want it! Theres no chance of anything developing till that chunk of PV over eastern Canada leaves the scene or gets pulled much further to the nw.

    Scraping the bottom of the optimism barrel the ECM T240hrs is a slight improvement on the previous 216 hours of horror.

    At this point we're relying on several warmings of the strat and the MJO to bring about a change in a few weeks time.

    Nick, you are on to something, warming of the MJO... 

    Serious note, we have to ride out the next 10 days at least and hope this "warming" (not MJO) does make a really interesting mid Feb. This is not a done deal yet.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    Just now, Stuie W said:

    Nick, you are on to something, warming of the MJO...

    Serious note, we have to ride out the next 10 days at least and hope this "warming" (not MJO) does make a really interesting mid Feb. This is not a done deal yet.

    I was talking of warming of the strat not the MJO. We'd better hope the MJO can make it into phase 7 and 8 and the destructive interference can lessen sufficiently to allow that to have a bigger impact on the NH pattern.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    50 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    Trough disrupting south east. No cold air to tap into, and no support from UKMO or GFS but we have to start somewhere!

    ECMOPEU12_144_1.png

    That's quite a good looking chart. Soggy Ireland though! 

    Atlantic hitting the buffers somewhat - 'troughing' taking a negative tilt look if that block could gain more more latitude and move a little west things could change drastically.

    GFS at T144 on the other hand very flat full throttle Atlantic mobility I do not buy it - even UKMO digs SE a tad more in line with ECM, GFS is looking like the odd one out to me, then again ECM is holding the coldie throne once again, so I suggest caution, ECM has not had the best of times this winter. 

    image.pngimage.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    24 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Consistency from the ECM and other outputs when you don't want it! Theres no chance of anything developing till that chunk of PV over eastern Canada leaves the scene or gets pulled much further to the nw.

    Scraping the bottom of the optimism barrel the ECM T240hrs is a slight improvement on the previous 216 hours of horror.

    At this point we're relying on several warmings of the strat and the MJO to bring about a change in a few weeks time.

    True but interesting though.. Most of the models want to introduce more amplification to our NE - Add the JMA to that also, compared to yesterday at the bottom

     

    JN192-21.gif

    JN204-21.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
    6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Lol! no the PV chunk in Canada is piling bombs eastwards and flattening the pattern which makes it difficult to get enough trough disruption and low heights getting well into central/southern Europe.

    Theres nothing interesting about the ECM unless you like lots of wind and rain. The ECM at day ten looks better than the previous 9 days in terms of overall NH pattern.

    The ensembles might have some more interesting solutions , I'm just commenting on the op which isn't up to much re cold.

    I do :D. Honestly Nick the weather up here in Northern England has been beyond tedious for much of the past few weeks - chilly but not cold, hardly and wind, the odd frost but mainly a ubiquitous anti cyclonic gloom. I for one really like the look of the ECM and look forward to the sound of wind and rain lashing the windows.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    I really wouldn't worry about the ECM, its not high stakes with it showing something tangible in terms of cold and the others saying no. Low pressure near the UK never has a chance to disrupt or get sufficiently se because upstream the PV is sending too much energy east. You need to see something slow down the next upstream low and that can only come with more amplitude and the PV over there weakening and pulling further away.

    Any slight ridge to the ne doesn't really have a chance. I accept we're trying to find some positives and the ECM is better than the GFS but we need a big change in the overall pattern. That may well come during February when the MJO might do us a favour and the PV might be weaker after several strat warmings.

    Look out for the ECM ensemble spreads if you're hoping for something earlier, you'd want to see the spread to the south of the UK and especially over central/southern Europe to see if some low heights could get into that region.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    I really wouldn't worry about the ECM, its not high stakes with it showing something tangible in terms of cold and the others saying no. Low pressure near the UK never has a chance to disrupt or get sufficiently se because upstream the PV is sending too much energy east. You need to see something slow down the next upstream low and that can only come with more amplitude and the PV over there weakening and pulling further away.

    Any slight ridge to the ne doesn't really have a chance. I accept we're trying to find some positives and the ECM is better than the GFS but we need a big change in the overall pattern. That may well come during February when the MJO might do us a favour and the PV might be weaker after several strat warmings.

    Look out for the ECM ensemble spreads if you're hoping for something earlier, you'd want to see the spread to the south of the UK and especially over central/southern Europe to see if some low heights could get into that region.

     

    I'm actually as optimistic as ive been since the failure of early December, the strat PV does look to move back over the pole in GFS FI and that will probably verify, but the models (particularly ECM) looks to still attack from the SPV both sectors, even if those sharp ridges from Scandinavia into the pole are brief, as log as the Russian high stays there or there abouts and the atlantic troughs are sent on a Southerly track, I can see a late feb SSW (classic precursor pattern), I know March lessens the chances of potent cold and snow settling in southern England but it can happen, the Strat PV looks weak and looks to me like its ripe for attacks from below and set to weaken and vulnerable to complete destruction from another  over the top SSW (hopefully Tamara will give us good news from the Mountain torque charts in in a couple of weeks, I heard from others about MJO phase 6, if that can continue into 7/8 and amplify in 8 (which ties in with timing of likely fall of strat vortex and something looks to be driving a signal on GLOSEA as met are now going for a cold spell with low confidence in about a month, I would risk a bit higher and suggest medium confidence, the most confident ive been all winter anyway, another problem like I said, timing uncertain and people in southern England might be looking forward to spring by March but to e there looks like a seriously deep trough to the South East is well within the range of long range solutions, and that would be likely to deliver something potent. Don't panic if we don't start seeing any belting FI ensembles for another week or so.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    48 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

    216 hours of horror? A tad dramatic considering the different slant the ecm takes this evening.

    Not sure what the different slant is? There are differences in the models as to how quick the Atlantic pushes the euro block east and bearing in mind the GFS bias, the ECM was always going to be slower than the GFS.

    The ECM has the Atlantic stalling over the UK and many would argue that the GFS slant is preferable. 

    As for ECM D10, I am still surprised anyone takes any notice of those charts as they have failed miserably all Winter.

    It is clear that we are in for a wet and windy period and no D10 ECM chart will convince me otherwise. Mid Feb onwards is the earliest for any change but that may be a tad optimistic.

    My forecast is for 1-2c above average CET, meaning all three winter months are over 1c above average. Probably 200% rainfall averages and frosts  and snow at a premium.

    Bearing in mind it was a front loaded Winter then it is hard to get excited about the upcoming month or so. Lets just hope we don't get a late SSW that spoils our Spring.

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