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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    And here we go again, the twice weekly soap opera which is the EC Monthly. Remember those Atlantic dominated charts from last week? Yeah scrub that. Latest scribblings go cold much of February 

    ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2017020200_04

    ec-ens_nat_taem_msl_t850_anom_2017020200

     

    THAT IS IMPRESSIVE:shok::D

    This much better than the 12z,a straight easterly instead of a SE'LY

    gfsnh-0-180.png?18

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Knee-jerk, a joke!?...if that is what you believe then simply don't follow. I was simply highlighting what the EC ENS are showing and to be honest certain people need to read before commentating, perh

    Yes, I recognise these sage pieces of sentiment so well. The signals are always wrong, and the professionals (and others) who try to present and explain them, when an operational appears to take away

    This is an unusual set up for the UK, hence the model variations. The bigger picture according to seriously knowledgeable people like @Tamara tends to suggest that the hemispheric factors that actuall

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Great GFS 18 hrs run so far. The ridge can get over the low to the west which is an upgrade at this stage compared to the earlier 12 hrs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
    3 minutes ago, snowray said:

    That is a wicked chart, brrrrrrrrr:shok: Very cold, snow showers in the east.

    gfseu-0-162.png

    gfseu-1-162.png

    Part of the vortex dropping into Russia 

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    Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

    gfs-0-192.png?18

    That is the best Easterly I have seen so far, keep trending in the right direction :)

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Great GFS 18 hrs run so far. The ridge can get over the low to the west which is an upgrade at this stage compared to the earlier 12 hrs.

    Nothing like ECM nick.

    Beeb going with cold and dry, while thats apprciated most of us want snow..

    18z is a belter tho..

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    5 minutes ago, bartlett high said:

    I'm sure you are far more knowledgeable  than me but according to the BBC forecast  next week is set to become colder from midweek and very dry and settled (BBC news channel 21:55)

    Yes probably cold and mainly dry, some snow though moving in from the east on this run, and maybe in the far west, could be a battleground.

    132-574UK.GIF

    138-574UK.GIF

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    I think if you were going with the form horse, cold and dry looks the most likely outcome to begin with. The ENS suites seem to go with this theme and the operationals, although flirting with some juicy snowy charts show predominately dry weather for the majority of the country.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

    Nothing like ECM nick.

    Beeb going with cold and dry, while thats apprciated most of us want snow..

    18z isca belter tho..

    Well they won't say cold and snowy at this stage!

    the 18z a good run for cold as it manages to get those blue upper heights to strike part of the country under high slp - that would generally mean an upper cold pool which should mean enough instability to lead to precip. The eps control also managed to do similar. Whilst this isn't quite the nirvana steve was talking about earlier, it's still probably the best we can hope for as a direct high from sub -14c uppers remains below 10%. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Pretty decent easterly flow this...

    gfsnh-0-198.png?18

    If I was being picky I'd like to see more of an undercut going forward, not sure how far inland any showers would penetrate from the east without disturbances pushing west. Definitely better than the SE'ly that had been modelled though.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, CreweCold said:

    Pretty decent easterly flow this...

    gfsnh-0-198.png?18

    If I was being picky I'd like to see more of an undercut going forward, not sure how far inland any showers would penetrate from the east without disturbances pushing west. Definitely better than the SE'ly that had been modelled though.

    Stunning chart matey.

    Gawd i want ecm to look the same on the morning!

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    Posted
  • Location: Crookes Sheffield (223m. asl)
  • Location: Crookes Sheffield (223m. asl)
    2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    I think if you were going with the form horse, cold and dry looks the most likely outcome to begin with. The ENS suites seem to go with this theme and the operationals, although flirting with some juicy snowy charts show predominately dry weather for the majority of the country.

    Invariably Easterlies always start like this ... and always the forum states .,'this is a dry ,cold easterly... then instability draws in a front from the east or a small cold pool creating heavy showers 

     

     

     

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    I look at this chart and think....if only we could get LP around the Balkans...it would set up a nice conveyor belt of cold uppers and serve to keep the high propped

    gfsnh-0-228.png?18

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

    Nothing like ECM nick.

    Beeb going with cold and dry, while thats apprciated most of us want snow..

    18z isca belter tho..

    I think because of its reputation it's assumed that it's going to be the leader here. It may well be right but it's hardly covered itself in glory in recent weeks. The block set up to the east seems to be changing between runs but the main thing is that upstream the models agree that those low heights will get edged to the nw. The models generally underplay blocking in this set up and the GFS 18hrs run has made a correction westwards in the earlier timeframe. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    2 minutes ago, jam said:

    Invariably Easterlies always start like this ... and always the forum states .,'this is a dry ,cold easterly... then instability draws in a front from the east or a small cold pool creating heavy showers 

     

     

     

     

     

     

    True enough. And its notoriously difficult to forecast a Scandi high correctly, I think that we are getting there now though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Later on in FI, after a couple of milder days, we begin to try and shear off another Scandi high

    gfsnh-0-276.png?18

    You can see the little bubble of warmer 850's heading up through Iceland NE

    gfsnh-1-288.png?18

    The upshot should be a Scandi high which tries to regain its shape and recurve cold uppers back towards the UK

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Sidney's distant cousin is stirred by the threat of the beast from the east. :shok: 

    IMG_1777.thumb.PNG.a917e08f9de2d0c92ea86f14c23a1bf3.PNGIMG_1789.thumb.GIF.e2a734b11ff6466750bc35769189390d.GIF

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Later on in FI, after a couple of milder days, we begin to try and shear off another Scandi high

    gfsnh-0-276.png?18

    Pity the isobars couldn't have been aligned with that pool of -32c uppers over Russia at the right time though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    Nice movement west in 24hrs on the 18z of the cold around the 8th Feb

    gfs-1-162.png?18gfs-1-138.png?18

    the block looking stronger on tonight's run.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

    Pity the isobars couldn't have been aligned with that pool of -32c uppers over Russia at the right time though.

    Still all to play for though feb...

    I'd wager we're nowhere near the evolution we'll probably be seeing in 2-3 days time at that range.

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Pity the isobars couldn't have been aligned with that pool of -32c uppers over Russia at the right time though.

    Who knows! Nearer the time it might have the UK's name on it - once in a life timer if it happens.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay

    At last something to get our worn out gnashers into... Gfs maintains the Easterly lasting several days (or at least in theory!!) 

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