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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    10 minutes ago, snowbunting said:

    Agreed. Was looking at the charts, I think a scandi high bringing a brief easterly then settling into high pressure centred over the North of the UK would not be unreasonable, if following the ECM. Repeat 2013?

    The concerns are the BA one that the angle of the Jet is too SW to NE aligned and its linked with my concern to a certain extent, even if you get the  -10c isotherm in, it doesn't guarantee heavy snow showers, if the 500mb heights are too high then PPN will be limited, we really need that UKMO run to be repeated soon on other ops / suites in quantity within the next 24 hours, surface pressure can be as high as 1025 and still deliver big, but you need cold 850's with steep lapse rates up to 500mb as well, The most brutal dumpings from Easterlies will have occurred with heights at least below 530dam, I doubt many proper lake / sea effect snow events have occurred with 500mb heights near 540dam. The 'get the cold in first and then the snow will crop up' line doesn't always ring true, especially not with these setups (excluding any subsequent battleground events that is)

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Knee-jerk, a joke!?...if that is what you believe then simply don't follow. I was simply highlighting what the EC ENS are showing and to be honest certain people need to read before commentating, perh

    Yes, I recognise these sage pieces of sentiment so well. The signals are always wrong, and the professionals (and others) who try to present and explain them, when an operational appears to take away

    This is an unusual set up for the UK, hence the model variations. The bigger picture according to seriously knowledgeable people like @Tamara tends to suggest that the hemispheric factors that actuall

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
    3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Here is 192 from OP mirroring the mean really the bigger cluster is with ECM op it seems - the latter frames of ECM is bitterly cold it must be said although dry less so to the SE. 

    Not an outlier^ 

    IMG_1780.thumb.JPG.1b0cbf43e74ec801ff074389be367d1d.JPG

    It's got the pattern clock on. It's the 850's that's at the milder end of the ensembles 

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    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
    37 minutes ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

    EDIT:  This post took me about an hour to prepare but I see that there are another 3 pages in that time!

     

    I thought you were working on the posts since 1963 lol. Very informative post much appreciated by all:)

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
    5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Here is 192 from OP mirroring the mean really the bigger cluster is with ECM op it seems - the latter frames of ECM is bitterly cold it must be said although dry less so to the SE. 

    Not an outlier^ 

    IMG_1780.thumb.JPG.1b0cbf43e74ec801ff074389be367d1d.JPG

    Sadly, some people have no clue what the meaning of an outlier is.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outlier

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    7 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

    It's got the pattern clock on. It's the 850's that's at the milder end of the ensembles 

    That post is spot on look a the rest of europe not just the uk. Onwards to 18z lets hope we see the deep cold grow.

    EDM0-144.gif

    ECM0-144 (1).gif

    EDM0-168.gif

    ECM0-168 (4).gif

    EDM0-192.gif

    ECM0-192 (3).gif

    Edited by booferking
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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Aldo sadly..

    Is the geographical scale of being a polar maritime island. .defines' micro-scale observation of an outlier' and not..

    Mirrored against the complete suite. ..

    Its called exactions on micro-scale. 

    And this is why its s##t or bust for our Islands. 

    Details are of mass-implications. 

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

    I was just trying to be positive. Perhaps I overhyped it, when I said "big outlier". It is a slight outlier, I apologise.  Remove my previous post please mod.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    56 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Ah yes ... the dream itself ... the mythical cut-off Scandi High in early February. A 1991 revival. Make the most of it chaps!

    610day.03.gif

    And goes on in the 8-14 dayer:yahoo::D

    814day.03.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Staying objective at the moment and not getting too drawn on the intra-run variability, as always to be expected especially when the atlantic looks like coming unstuck against blocking feature. The trend of the winter has been for too much energy to draw north and place forcing on height development to our east, sinking it southwards and sending coldest air to east/se europe, and this evening's ECM is showing such a scenario, with a NE-SW aligned jet, and no trough disruption, hence its no wonder we see the high sinking aided by the azores high nudging its way NE. UKMO and GFS showing trough action slightly further west and prone to trough disruption which helps to maintain more robust northern positioned heights.

    The eventual theme is still a cold one, and a surface flow from off the continent would bring very low daytime temps, much like we had last Thursday when uppers were above 0 degrees, a cold surface flow from the SE in mid Feb can pack a very cold punch, ice days can easily be recorded. 

    Longer term, every chance we will see a trigger low slide and disrupt from the atlantic with more robust heights building to our NE and north, a sinking trough scenario, indeed this weekend we have trough disruption, could take a couple of bites to get the proper sustained cold in. I'm reminded back to Feb 1994 when we had a shortlived easterly spell, scandi went in the freezer then a trough disruption scenario with copious snow here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Lovely run, thanks 18z! Snow and freezing temps arrive early at D5.:cold:

    gfseu-1-138.png

    gfseu-2-132.png

    gfseu-2-138.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    -10c pushing into Eastern England at +132

     

    -10c.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
    2 minutes ago, snowray said:

    Lovely run, thanks 18z! Snow and freezing temps arrive early at D5.:cold:

    gfseu-1-138.png

    gfseu-2-132.png

    gfseu-2-138.png

    I'm sure you are far more knowledgeable  than me but according to the BBC forecast  next week is set to become colder from midweek and very dry and settled (BBC news channel 21:55)

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    That is a wicked chart, brrrrrrrrr:shok: Very cold, snow showers in the east.

    gfseu-0-162.png

    gfseu-1-162.png

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