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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


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1 minute ago, snowray said:

GFS ensembles for Holland, some members going -15, -17 uppers there, and that is the air that on a direct easterly would be heading straight for us, so you never know, GEM might be onto something after all. I would be interested to see exactly how these ensembles sit as compared to the ECM suite, in fact I suspect the ECM operational to be a big mild outlier. 

graphe_ens3.gif

So what your saying is that the ECM should be showing colder uppers? As u said it being a mild outlier.?

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Knee-jerk, a joke!?...if that is what you believe then simply don't follow. I was simply highlighting what the EC ENS are showing and to be honest certain people need to read before commentating, perh

Yes, I recognise these sage pieces of sentiment so well. The signals are always wrong, and the professionals (and others) who try to present and explain them, when an operational appears to take away

This is an unusual set up for the UK, hence the model variations. The bigger picture according to seriously knowledgeable people like @Tamara tends to suggest that the hemispheric factors that actuall

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    9 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    Yesterday you claimed once a downgrade started it never stops.... and hey presto now your talking about the ECM as if it's right.

     

    The final outcome will be blend of all the outputs as per usual

    I wouldn't put words into my mouth. Where in my post did I say or imply that the ecm was correct?

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

    I really hope the ecm ensembles are better than the op. The op is cold, later in the run, but it's also painfully dry. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Work Haverhill Suffolk. Live in Thurrock
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Cold.
  • Location: Work Haverhill Suffolk. Live in Thurrock

    Didn't the ECM backtrack a few weeks ago from an easterly. It's one run, and from what I've seen today / tonight from the other models I'm starting to be a bit hopeful!

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    2 minutes ago, Luke Attwood said:

    So what your saying is that the ECM should be showing colder uppers? As u said it being a mild outlier.?

    Just be interesting to see if the ECM operational stands out as an outlier or not within its ensemble suite. It may not be of course but there should a split, some going for more undercut, and some showing the Atlantic going over the top, I'm interested in seeing in which group the operational sits.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Ah yes ... the dream itself ... the mythical cut-off Scandi High in early February. A 1991 revival. Make the most of it chaps!

    610day.03.gif

    If it verifies and delivers then i have no doubt we will :) 

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    8 hours ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

    D5 AND D9 CROSS MODEL COMPARISON BETWEEN THE 0z AND 12Z RUNS 

    I thought that it would be very useful to focus on today's changes in the model output in the more reliable period for 5 days out and then 9 days out to see the extent of the upgrades. I have copied across the 0z charts from my post this morning and then show the 12z charts below that. The ECM only does 24 hour interval charts, so I used the closest chart available.

    Please note: The 0z charts were copied from before and can only be viewed individually while all the 12z charts can be run through in a single view.

    D5 0z cross model charts for 0100 on Tuesday, February 7th (T+120 unless stated):                          

                              GFS 0z                                                        ECM 0z                                                        UKMO 0z                                                   GEM 0z                                                      NAVGEM 0z

     gfs-0-120.png?0?0     ECM1-120.GIF?02-12     UW120-21.GIF?02-05     gem-0-120.png?00     navgem-0-120.png?02-07      

                     GEFS ens mean 0z                               JMA 12z (Feb 1st) T+108                           

      gens-0-1-120.png    J108-21.GIF?01-0   

     D5 12z cross model charts for 0100 on Tuesday, February 7th (T+108 unless stated):

                             GFS 12z                                    ECM 12z (for Feb 7th 1300) T+120                                 UKMO 12z                                                 GEM 12z                                                 NAVGEM 12z

      gfs-0-108.png?12?12    ECM1-120.GIF?02-0    UW120-21.GIF    gem-0-108.png   navgem-0-108.png?02-19

                    GEFS ens mean 12z                                             JMA 12z    

       gens-0-1-108.png   J108-21.GIF

    Mostly small changes at this stage. The Scandinavian HP is more intense on most of the later runs and the main LP in the Atlantic is either slightly weaker and/or slightly further west. The biggest upgrade is in the GEM and the smallest in the GFS.

    D9 cross model charts for 0100 on Saturday, February 11th (T+ 216 unless stated) Note: the UKMO and NAVGEM do not go that far out - so they are excluded

                            GFS 0z                                                            ECM 0z                                                        GEM 0z                                               GEFS ens mean 0z                              JMA 12z (Feb 1st) T+228  

       gfs-0-216.png    ECM1-216.GIF    gem-0-216.png    gens-0-1-216.png    gfs-0-204.png?12?12    

    D9 cross model charts for 0100 on Saturday, February 11th (T+ 204 unless stated):

                            GFS 12z                                    ECM 12z  (for Feb 11th 1300) T+216                                 GEM 12z                                            GEFS ens mean 12z                              JMA 12z (Feb 1st) T+228  

       gfs-0-204.png?12?12     ECM1-216.GIF    gem-0-204.png   gens-0-1-204.png     J228-21.GIF?01-0        

    Now we see the changes. All 5 models show substantial upgrades in just 12 hours. Generally deeper cold and a westward movement of the entire pattern.   

    Finally the 850s also D9 cross model charts for 0100 on Saturday, February 11th (T+216 unless stated):

                               GFS 0z                                                       ECM 0z                                                      GEM 0z                                              GEFS ens mean 0z                                  JMA 12z (Feb 1st) T+228  

      gfs-1-216.png?0?0    ECM0-216.GIF?02-12   gem-1-216.png     gens-0-0-216.png    J228-7.GIF     

    D9 cross model charts for 0100 on Saturday, February 11th (T+ 204 unless stated):  

                                 GFS 0z                                  ECM 12z  (for Feb 11th 1300) T+216                              GEM 12z                                            GEFS ens mean 12z                              JMA 12z (Feb 1st) T+228

     gfs-1-204.png?12     ECM0-216.GIF    gem-1-204.png   gens-0-0-204.png      J228-7.GIF                                                         

    Generally lower 850s with the biggest change from the GEM and we know that their chart for a day earlier is even more impressive. Perhaps the most remarkable thing is that all the models upgraded at least to some extent in just 12 hours. They must surely be factoring in some much stronger signals for today. I see that many of the ensembles have also got a good deal colder. This is so close to being what all us coldies and snow lovers have been craving. It just cannot fail - surely!                                      

    EDIT:  This post took me about an hour to prepare but I see that there are another 3 pages in that time!

     

    Edited by Guest
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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    9 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

    I really hope the ecm ensembles are better than the op. The op is cold, later in the run, but it's also painfully dry. 

    But there are features that can pop up within the short range. Features that won't be shown yet especially on the ecm. Of course when you have runs like GEM it's pretty obvious where features will pop up. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    44 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    Hello and welcome :) I was just referring to some comments on here about the cold pool to east at day 10 and the false assumption that it would head towards the UK.

    Oh I'm making no assumptions. I was liking the look of day 10 for my central European location. Not saying it will get to uk. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

    Oh I'm making no assumptions. I was liking the look of day 10 for my central European location. Not saying it will get to uk. 

    I wasn't referring to you Seasonality. I know you were talking in relation to your European location.

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    There are again waaaay too many off topic posts being made in this thread. The posts in here should be related to the model output only. Other snippets, moans, ramps, banter etc need to go into the model banter thread:

    And for things like media forecasts, general chat about the winter etc etc, take a look in the winter forum as there are dozens of active threads over there

    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/1-winter-and-general-weather-discussion/

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Thus far the ECM has played virtual second fiddle to the UKMO - yesterdays T96 didnt have a deep an upper air cold poil diving through Europe -today it has

    The good thing is the OP 'should' be a clear outlier at day 6 & 7 as the other runs may well bring those deep cold uppers through holland making a significant difference to the T2ms

    Its been UKMOs winter- lets hope these past 3 days & the forth coming few are its crowning glory!!!

    UkMO day 7 is DEEP cold

    IMG_2266.thumb.PNG.8bc614af1d0f010aecb96e25fcfa5f6c.PNG

    S

    Fair one , that is the first day 7 UKMO chart that you can actually tell cold weather is coming - it's not the best overview but UKMO day 7 looks mighty fine. 

    As does this showing the ECM op as a warm outlier up to day 8.

    IMG_4143.PNG

    Edited by Ali1977
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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    One thing I forgot to mention - the key thing about the GFS run is not just the extension of blocking west but also that the vortex lobe over Asia stays well and truly trapped.

    Most other models have moved away from that over the past couple of days but you never know, they could be overdoing the development of the associated trough and its ability to push north. How's that for glass-half-full :drunk-emoji::laugh: 

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    Posted
  • Location: Northampton
  • Location: Northampton
    3 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

    Ecm mean at 192 is very decent.  Looks like op was a big outlier.  Phew. 

    EDM1-192.GIF

    Right in the middle - but perhaps a bit slower 144- 192.

    ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.thumb.png.6e5e3f5614b31933caad924e3f5c712a.png

    Edited by swilliam
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

    Ecm mean at 192 is very decent.  Looks like op was a big outlier.  Phew. 

    EDM1-192.GIF

    Doesn't look an outlier to me, it looks the same as the mean more or less.

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    Just now, swilliam said:

    Right in the middle

    ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.thumb.png.6e5e3f5614b31933caad924e3f5c712a.png

    Yes you can see the two groups around D5/6, Op not an outlier in fact but is sitting with the milder members. By D7 all are singing from the same hymn sheet...the cold one!:D

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    There are some far colder runs in there though of course, just like the GFS also has its colder ensemble members.

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
    5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Doesn't look an outlier to me, it looks the same as the mean more or less.

    Agreed. Was looking at the charts, I think a scandi high bringing a brief easterly then settling into high pressure centred over the North of the UK would not be unreasonable, if following the ECM. Repeat 2013?

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Ecm 12z is an outlier.

    And bounces against the suite.

    The advanced now blocking' challenges the assumptions of easterly inflow and westwards migration of deep (infer) cold.

    It's looking lively and primed for a decent cold interaction of uk placement. ...obviously now the Scandinavian settlement of heights are knats whisker of fruition of eventuality. ..

    But its the best its been for an eternity. 

    Long feed/vertical feed thats the defining' differences. 

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: London North
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heat
  • Location: London North
    3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    Ecm 12z is an outlier.

    And bounces against the suite.

    The advanced now blocking' challenges the assumptions of easterly inflow and westwards migration of deep (infer) cold.

    It's looking lively and primed for a decent cold interaction of uk placement. ...obviously now the Scandinavian settlement of heights are knats whisker of fruition of eventuality. ..

    But its the best its been for an eternity. 

    Long feed/vertical feed thats the defining' differences. 

    Eh?....Sorry I don't understand that, new. Any chance of charts, explanations please?

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    17 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

    Ecm mean at 192 is very decent.  Looks like op was a big outlier.  Phew. 

    EDM1-192.GIF

    Here is 192 from OP mirroring the mean really the bigger cluster is with ECM op it seems - the latter frames of ECM is bitterly cold it must be said although dry less so to the SE. 

    Not an outlier^ 

    IMG_1780.thumb.JPG.1b0cbf43e74ec801ff074389be367d1d.JPG

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