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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


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Knee-jerk, a joke!?...if that is what you believe then simply don't follow. I was simply highlighting what the EC ENS are showing and to be honest certain people need to read before commentating, perh

Yes, I recognise these sage pieces of sentiment so well. The signals are always wrong, and the professionals (and others) who try to present and explain them, when an operational appears to take away

This is an unusual set up for the UK, hence the model variations. The bigger picture according to seriously knowledgeable people like @Tamara tends to suggest that the hemispheric factors that actuall

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    The ecm is OK. It is a very dry run but at least it will feel cold. I am disappointed with the orientation of the block in the medium term. This needs to be amended more favourably in future runs if we are to see anything special.

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  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    The ecm is OK. It is a very dry run but at least it will feel cold. I am disappointed with the orientation of the block in the medium term. This needs to be amended more favourably in future runs if we are to see anything special.

    And had it shown a snowpocalypse  it would probably change the next run.... chasing details at this range is pretty pointless

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  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The Ecm 12z is trending the right way, towards cold but this is just the beginning, it could turn into something much better in the coming days..it's great to not be talking about southwesterly zephyrs isn't it!:D

    240_mslp850.png

    240_mslp850uk.png

    240_thickuk.png

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

    Here are the 6 at 120, GFS, ECM, JMA, GEM, UKMO & NAVGEM.

    The GFS, ECM, JMA seem to be the closest to me.

    gfsnh-0-120.thumb.png.57714e5ef0d274488d5b6005ce40ba6b.pngECH1-120.GIF.thumb.png.deb437a0c4095faaf3675c44cc73b26c.pngJN120-21.thumb.GIF.b9e674f8f1c4972154ed6f09310941a1.GIF

    With the GEM & UKMO closest to each other.

    gemnh-0-120.thumb.png.10f58c8d6ac3f3860318ee8c5d34cd90.pngUN120-21.thumb.GIF.3ae5de1c7bd2d00d0e269e17259b7bf0.GIF

    NAVGEM on it's own.

    navgemnh-0-120.thumb.png.a883f39c9a529d8fbc1410d7b0a51e4b.png

    So take your pick!

    gfsnh-0-120.png IGNORE THIS LAST CHART CAN'T DELETE IT.

    Edited by Day 10
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  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

    And had it shown a snowpocalypse  it would probably change the next run.... chasing details at this range is pretty pointless

    It's the model output thread, it's what we do. There are positives and negatives with the ecm run. The problem is that the negatives are in the earlier timeframe and the positives are towards the back end. The story of the model output so far this winter.

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  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    17 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

    I like the look of day 10!

     

    ECM0-240 (9).gif

    ECM1-240 (10).gif

    I think thInk winter 2016/17 will be remembered as the 'Day 10'  - still a stuggle to get any purposeful cold over the country going by the models.

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  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

    I think thInk winter 2016/17 will be remembered as the 'Day 10'  - still a stuggle to get any purposeful cold over the country going by the models.

    The northern arm of the jet is very strong on the day 10 ecm. The mega cold pool over eastern Europe will be advected south and east into central/southern Europe.

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  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    42 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

     

    I would hazard a guess that at 168 hrs is looking good and could be following the gfs with that cold pool out of NE Scandi

    ECH1-168.GIF?02-0

    At day 7 the ECM really is poor with a poorly aligned block, especially in comparison to what has gone before in previous runs and to other models. 

    I would suggest that the strength of the Azores high at day 5-6 is the main reason for the poorly aligned block and subsequent lessening of the cold pool ejection...you can see here how it diverts too much jet north

    ECM1-144.GIF?02-0

    Which is exactly why I pointed it out as a potential spoiler earlier this morning!

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  • Location: London North
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heat
  • Location: London North
    4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    The northern arm of the jet is very strong on the day 10 ecm. The mega cold pool over eastern Europe will be advected south and east into central/southern Europe.

    But your quoting 1 frame from one 12z ECM operational?....at day 10

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  • Location: Barrow-upon-Soar, Nth Leics, 50mASL
  • Weather Preferences: Deep snow, biting winds, frigid temperatures and thunderstorms
  • Location: Barrow-upon-Soar, Nth Leics, 50mASL
    39 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    So..the Ecm 12z has gone from poor to very good..phew what a relief, I enjoy the running commentary but it can get confusing which is why I like to let the run finish before commenting.:D

    Agreed,  very confusing for us newbies! Can't grumble at any of output considering where we were this time last week! 

    T

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  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    At day 7 the ECM really is poor with a poorly aligned block, especially in comparison to what has gone before in previous runs and to other models. 

    I would suggest that the strength of the Azores high at day 5-6 is the main reason for the poorly aligned block and subsequent lessening of the cold pool ejection...you can see here how it diverts too much jet north

    ECM1-144.GIF?02-0

    Which is exactly why I pointed it out as a potential spoiler earlier this morning!

    I agree. I know it is only one run but the 12z ecm run of yesterday was also less than enthusing - cue John Holmes. The ecm is a huge concern when you view the early to mid timeframe. I feel a little bit of denial has crept into this forum tonight.

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  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    5 minutes ago, Scandyhigh said:

    But your quoting 1 frame from one 12z ECM operational?....at day 10

    Hello and welcome :) I was just referring to some comments on here about the cold pool to east at day 10 and the false assumption that it would head towards the UK.

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  • Location: Runcorn
  • Location: Runcorn
    13 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    The northern arm of the jet is very strong on the day 10 ecm. The mega cold pool over eastern Europe will be advected south and east into central/southern Europe.

    It's not the first run to suggest as such either, there's been hints of it since yesterday's 18z, start of a new trend?, probably is knowing our luck.

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  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    3 minutes ago, Arthur1882 said:

    Don't understand the wrist slitting over the ECM, it is cold, the important thing is to get in the cold and then think about the snow

    The last snowy spell was originally predicted to be a NW/cheshire gap affair, then at 2 days notice a channel low popped up and delivered 2-4" of snow to the south east, things chamge damn quick, important thing is to get the cold in and the ECM does that

    No wrist slashing on here, just objective analysis of the model output. I don't know about you but I certainly appreciate that.

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  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    3 minutes ago, Anon90 said:

    It's not the first run to suggest as such either, there's been hints of it since yesterday's 18z, start of a new trend?, probably is knowing our luck.

    Indeed. I also think Bluearmy made reference to this.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    120_mslp500.png?cb=362 3_mslp.png?cb=362 12_120_mslp500.png?cb=362

    I'm actually pretty miffed at the ECM model, partly because of something you can only clearly see on the format of charts shown above; way out to the east, where there are two areas of lower heights which are merging together there is a considerable lowering of pressure which turns the flow all the way around to a northerly by +144, whereas UKMO keeps them separate and GFS does not deepen the lows nearly as much, both of which allow for the easterly flow to remain across a larger part of Europe over the following 24 hours.

    The other source of bother is the huge amount of momentum to the NE that the model finds in the 7-10 day period with LP racing through Greenland, because when this happened for the third week of January, it was initially modelled to take place too far north and the reality saw the high suppressed south more quickly with benign results. Examining UKMO and GFS in comparison, the orientation of the flow at +144 is little different so what ECM does seems to be largely a result of the big trough off N. America tracking further north. Hopefully MJO forcing will lead to it moving further south or being less well organised - it is a bit worrying that UKMO has very similar positioning and intensity at +144.

     

    The concern at +120 to +144 is the greater one given recent model volatility in terms of how they respond to the various broad-scale signals coming into play beyond a week from now, as it will serve to limit the ammunition we have to battle the Atlantic with whichever way the upstream pattern goes. Of course, it could be a two-faced development as it allows some particularly intense cold air to develop across W. Asia and if the upstream forcing allowed the blocking to extend west as per the GFS 12z - which is an excellent match for the theoretical MJO effects by the way - then we'd probably find ourselves wondering just what we're about to have to deal with. Or we could I suppose see height rises out west and the deep trough diving toward Scandi if the MJO forcing is strong enough to turn things back around.

    So the usual drama is at hand - but a saving grace has to be that even with two major developments going the wrong way, ECM still delivers what looks to be a bitterly cold surface flow from around Thursday evening onward and which starts far enough north that even a faster sinking of the block would still deliver a brief cold spell. Hmm - not much of a saviour is it? :whistling:

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  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Not really, no. 

    We've had surface cold this winter already.... the vast majority of people on here, I would suggest, crave snow. Bar a few wintry showers, there isn't much of that on offer anytime soon with the ECM run (SE corner aside admittedly)

    More than surface cold on the ECM

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  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
    1 minute ago, vizzy2004 said:

    Snow

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

    and  it still goes  on  deep into f1  looking  at it plenty  of  snow could  be heading  our way

     

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  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    39 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    It's the model output thread, it's what we do. There are positives and negatives with the ecm run. The problem is that the negatives are in the earlier timeframe and the positives are towards the back end. The story of the model output so far this winter.

    Yesterday you claimed once a downgrade started it never stops.... and hey presto now your talking about the ECM as if it's right.

     

    The final outcome will be blend of all the outputs as per usual

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Regards snow. Some very good output and some which(ecm) is not as good. Debate is good but the fact is we don't know yet and won't for awhile. Cold is coming but details are far from confirmed. I say sit back and enjoy as it folds. Nothing better than surprise snow features.

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  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    GFS ensembles for Holland, some members going -15, -17 uppers there, and that is the air that on a direct easterly would be heading straight for us, so you never know, GEM might be onto something after all. I would be interested to see exactly how these ensembles sit as compared to the ECM suite, in fact I suspect the ECM operational to be a big mild outlier. 

    graphe_ens3.gif

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