Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

What is of interest to me is that cold uppers are thrown over us from the west before we get the easterly moving in.  So I would think that when the continental feed kicks in it will be darn cold.

 

BFTP

[Johnp]

GEM is awesome with -20c 850's approaching the SE at 174hrs

[warrenb]

Actually if the GEM came to pass then I would be digging myself out of the top floor window.

[Tom Jarvis]

So GFS on it own. Where the GFS has the cold pool on the gem and ukmo that is v near to the centre of the scandi high. So I think we can put more faith in the ukmo as it has been the best preforming model r this winter which is a good thing to have indeed. 

Edited February 2, 2017 by Tom Jarvis

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, ITSY said:

May I be the first to share this BEAUTY from the GEM:

You may, with pleasure lol.

[snowray]

1 minute ago, ITSY said:

May I be the first to share this BEAUTY from the GEM:

Yes, go, go GEM!

[blizzard81]

If the ecm follows the gem tonight then this forum will go into melt down lol.

[Ali1977]

What is good is that all models are supporting of an Easterly of sorts, the GFS could be a stonker by day 11.

Edited February 2, 2017 by Ali1977

[Day 10]

GFS, UKMO, GEM 144

It will keep changing.

[Gowon]

It's a definite improvement on the 12z.. A nice GFS FI coming up!

[The Eagle]

GFS is incredibly frustrating, great potential but just can't get the undercut we need to really project the cold air westward.

[Gowon]

Just now, Day 10 said:

GFS, UKMO, GEM 144

It will keep changing.

GFS has the block further NE into Svalbard.

[Ali1977]

This could be great, the METO did suggest  Day 10/11...big cold pool lining up. The GEM is a classic

[Alexis]

5 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

GFS is incredibly frustrating, great potential but just can't get the undercut we need to really project the cold air westward.

True, but the uppers are cold enough anyway with a continental flow. The issue is the more than the low fills to the west and keeps the precipitation out to sea.

[Daniel*]

UKMO is pretty decent t144.

Clean easterly feed some snow showers for southeastern parts perhaps. It would be better if the blocking centred further north. That deeper cold looks like it has set its eyes for the far south. Very good output all following the same hymn sheet cold E'ly flows.

I have not been as encouraged as this in a long time...

Edited February 2, 2017 by Daniel*

[The Beast From The East]

3 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

GFS is incredibly frustrating, great potential but just can't get the undercut we need to really project the cold air westward.

100% Agree, Not sure how many times i have seen the models predicting the undercut  over the last few years but it never makes it. Im guessing if the first low could undercut then more lows would follow more less the same route and it would be easier from that point?? I can remember going back many years ago once a scandi block was in place then the lows one after another used to come in from the atlantic and go across us and under the block giving plenty of snow depending on its track it took.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Where is this GFS going. Look at the temp chart from t222 to t264......there is a mega deep cold pool that rapidly advances westward from Russia to Scandi.  Deep FI of cse but intriguing.  Looking forward to end of run as the deep LP that moves over us.....I think will jet that west over the UK.  

 

BFTP

[Day 10]

All for fun. But GFS has heavy rain turning to heavy snow mid Feb.

[Ali1977]

I'd hazard a guess at -15c possible in England with this chart with a v cold slackish flow, FI though!! 

Edited February 2, 2017 by Ali1977

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

I'd hazard a guess at -15c possible in England with this chart, FI though!! 

GFS run of the winter for me.  However, UKMO is imo a stormer too.  A great day of runs.....but effectively the candy is still not within 'in the bag' timescale but as close as damn it. Volatile weekend to get through first.

 

BFTP

[Scandinavian High.]

That is the beast from the east very cold and think snow would be thrown in as well.

[nick sussex]

Very interesting outputs all round. At this stage though I think people want to see snow and not just dry and cold.

The problem with these blocks is getting some precipitation and so either low pressure tracking se and frontal snow or getting sufficiently cold uppers from the east for convection off the North Sea and a strong flow to blow showers well inland.

Of course in an ideal world we'd have a frontal snow for the west to please members there and then a strong easterly flow with snow showers to please east/central areas. If only the weather was that simple.

Too early to nail down any snow chances but the overall NH pattern looks favourable to deliver several chances for that in the next  few weeks.

Edited February 2, 2017 by nick sussex

[jvenge]

Gah, the GFS has vanished a Tuesday and Wednesday snow event for me :-) Over to the ensembles to see if it was sniffing glue or not.

[northwestsnow]

Only a quckie from me work beckons.

Gfs fabulous.

Gem fabulous

Ukmo hmmmmmm, not convinced by that run.ok its cold by 144 but the block is too far south for my liking, over to ecm.

Edited February 2, 2017 by northwestsnow

[Ali1977]

I'm liking the look of the ENS at 150, a lot.look at all those -8c uppers over us - coldest mean yet coming up

Edited February 2, 2017 by Ali1977