Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Recommended Posts

There are some fantastic GEFS out to 180, including the control which has a good snow event primed.  The mean doesn't look as good as it may have done as 3/4 ENS go off on a tangent.

We have a fair few with -10/12 uppers by day 8.  

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 3.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Knee-jerk, a joke!?...if that is what you believe then simply don't follow. I was simply highlighting what the EC ENS are showing and to be honest certain people need to read before commentating, perh

Yes, I recognise these sage pieces of sentiment so well. The signals are always wrong, and the professionals (and others) who try to present and explain them, when an operational appears to take away

This is an unusual set up for the UK, hence the model variations. The bigger picture according to seriously knowledgeable people like @Tamara tends to suggest that the hemispheric factors that actuall

Posted Images

Ensembles give us no clue as to the evolution. Better than they were when only the Op had us under the Easterly which should give us an indication they are trending in the right direction, but who would want to make a forecast based on these! :drunk-emoji:    

MT8_Manchester_ens.png

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Nicholas B said:

Ensembles give us no clue as to the evolution. Better than they were when only the Op had us under the Easterly which should give us an indication they are trending in the right direction, but who would want to make a forecast based on these! :drunk-emoji:    

MT8_Manchester_ens.png

They'll shift one way or another over the next 48 hours. Toss of a coin as to whether we get the deep cold in looking at those. Very few 'flatliners' as Feb would put it which gives some degree of confidence that it may not be a prolonged affair anyway.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

I would almost bet my last pound coin that if this trend for westward corrections continues, next Thursdays potential battleground will just effect the SW of Ireland. 

 

Historically, blocking is inderplayed and ends up further west with the Synoptics on offer currently. 

 

Just my take on things right now. 

Edited by JamesL
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS 06Z Op & Control still on the extreme cold end of the ensemblies for my local in the mid term.

graphe3_1000___2.4457_57.2322_.gif

That's at least 5 run in a row now they've done that. Got to be 'sniffing' at something surely as normally you'd expect them to bounce around at least a bit within the spread at that range.

Then again, I've seen this winter consistently decent looking ensemblies change to **** within a day or two so taking nothing for granted.

Link to post
Share on other sites

The models are currently showing a large blocking high pressure area to our east and low pressure associated with a strong canadian lobe of the polar vortex to our west. The UK looks likely to be stuck (as we often are) in a battleground situation where there are many possible outcomes - a very dynamic situation to be carefully monitored.

Edited by The Weather Dragon
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Control run shows how the cold is kept in better shape when travelling across a more N'ly latitude

gensnh-0-0-300.png

As cold as you'll see Scandi that, pretty much

I've seen  850s of -40 over Scandinavia before ,with max daytime temps of -30 in Helsinki doesn't seem to happen anymore ,one reason why easterlies here are not as cold anymore.

Link to post
Share on other sites

One of the the problems is the low pressure in the Atlantic.we have the block In place next week,but one of the problems moving the cold air west is due to the lows pushing east and north,this is the wrong track! We really need them to dive south and then east,or just straight north and then west.until the latter happens we won't see a freeze up.just chilly conditions nothing to extreme.do people agree with me here?

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

They'll shift one way or another over the next 48 hours. Toss of a coin as to whether we get the deep cold in looking at those. Very few 'flatliners' as Feb would put it which gives some degree of confidence that it may not be a prolonged affair anyway.

Yeah see what you are saying about the flatliners. Models have always had a tendancy to break down blocking to the east too quickly or easily so not too worried about that yet as it could well change......If we get lucky and the stars all align for the cold to reach our shores in the 1st place. 

One way or another we will have a decent idea by Saturday what's in store like you say!

Link to post
Share on other sites

Just moved a whole bunch of posts into the model banter thread, because they had zilch to do with the model output - winters of the 70's, meto updates and the like don't fit in here.

 

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

I've seen  850s of -40 over Scandinavia before ,with max daytime temps of -30 in Helsinki doesn't seem to happen anymore ,one reason why easterlies here are not as cold anymore.

The all time record low for Helksinki is -34.3C. I don't know if there has ever been a day with a max temperature of -30?

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, Glenn Redwood said:

Is the track of Saturdays storm good going forward for the block and our chances of cold?

At T48 its way early to tell, however toggling between the last 2 runs we have another Westward correction, which isn't a bad thing.

Edit - by T90 we are v similar to the 06Z, so I think to this juncture we know where we'll be sitting, it's now about how the block holds up against the incoming Atlantic, and where the block sits to our NE.

By 132 again quite similar but a noticaby stronger block, it's just not quite oriented do really produce the good but still another improvement I'd say.  Lets see where the Atlantic front on it's way in goes - slider event then easterly reload hopefully.  The Scandy block is further North so this may help if a reload is on, it shouldn't sink as fast as on the 06z.

Edited by Ali1977
  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

The Atlantic vs Scandi block battle continues with a statemate over the UK virtually, it does look like the westerlies will win out initially but the models seem to hint the block battling back and we get under a more continental airflow.

I see very little evidence of a convective easterly though which to be fair most on here want too see but a chilly airflow from the continent does look possible sometime soon.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Low risk of snow for Southern England on Saturday with a shortwave tracking  S of the south coast very marginal. Also Sunday some sleet/snow could be in places. As tweeted by Ian F.

image.thumb.png.f0fb4fa89a7eb129e73f828af0ea194f.pngimage.thumb.png.a2b8146eabb2071b7a92ccc056fd44bc.png

image.png

Edited by Daniel*
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS on it's own at 144 with both GEM and UKMO going with azores link up

 

Actually liking the GEM as it then pushes the block further west and the trough to the west can only disrupt one way.

Edited by warrenb
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, warrenb said:

GFS on it's own at 144 with both GEM and UKMO going with azores link up

And as been discussed on here plenty...that will lead to the UKMO outlook of mostly dry weather moving in and any fronts decaying in the west...it will also turn colder as winds swing round to the south east. I must admit tho. That is a mighty big block on the 144hr ukmo

Tasac

Edited by There's a storm a coming
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, warrenb said:

GFS on it's own at 144 with both GEM and UKMO going with azores link up

Yes, fabulous Gem and very similar to the ukmo at 144hrs. Would be nice to see similar on tonight's ecm.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...