Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[mb018538]

ECM really delivering the goods this morning!



Perfect.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Just now, mb018538 said:

ECM really delivering the goods this morning!



Perfect.

So despite the concerns being raised by some things still look very much on track this morning.

A battleground scenario over the weekend followed by an increasingly Easterly influence to our weather which seems to be steadily counting down in the models from around Wednesday or Thursday next week as has looked the case for a few days except for perhaps the odd run that has bought in an Easterly over the UK A little earlier.

The ECM 0z run looks very much like how I expect the next 7 days to pan out.....

Gradually but steadily colder from the East with an increasing chance of the white stuff as the week goes on!  

[Seasonality]

18 minutes ago, shane303 said:

Borderline cold with the alantic winning I think will be the likely outcome 

Lol. The Atlantic always wins eventually for the UK. Been getting a battering this winter though.

Meanwhile, nothing borderline about current output by UK standards.

[jvenge]

ECM output looks like it was done in Photoshop by coldies. Very clean.

Okay, ECM, we can forgive you for yesterday now.

[mb018538]

I'd be interested where the ECM OP sits in comparison to the other ensemble members - one of the coldest I'd imagine, but not without interest.

[SMU]

216 another excellent chart with deeper cold spinning across europe alligned 'our way' -

Also no azores ridge NE either - we do NOT want the azores feeding into our high unless its right up over iceland, lows diving SE through ireland is much better

looking forward to the European 850s at 240 - how far does the -16 line get?!!

S

[Gowon]

A very cold run with a solid block that's going nowhere!

 

[jvenge]

4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I'd be interested where the ECM OP sits in comparison to the other ensemble members - one of the coldest I'd imagine, but not without interest.

i can't see it being one of the coldest, but it might be one of the options bringing it so far west. 

[Ali1977]

Great run but scuppered a little by the slider at 240, as it shuts of the feed from the east - still a great block to our NE though . Reload again looks very cold for Eastern Europe 

If we are to really hit the freezer we need the high to move NW a few hundred miles

Edited February 2, 2017 by Ali1977

[Gowon]

 

1 minute ago, jvenge said:

i can't see it being one of the coldest, but it might be one of the options bringing it so far west. 

Yeah, looking at uppers they're not very cold but on the plus side the pattern is further west.

[winterof79]

Forecast according to GEFS ensembles.

Easterley winds running through Germany (Berlin)

Possibly touching our East coast but no further(Norfolk and West Yorks).Scandi high building and decaying somewhat.(Helsinky)

[Frosty.]

Very pleasing Ecm 00z for coldies, a significant upgrade on last night's 12z..hopefully it will be turning progressively colder from the east next week with snow in the forecast too!!

[The Beast From The East]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

216 another excellent chart with deeper cold spinning across europe alligned 'our way' -

Also no azores ridge NE either - we do NOT want the azores feeding into our high unless its right up over iceland, lows diving SE through ireland is much better

looking forward to the European 850s at 240 - how far does the -16 line get?!!

S

Could Steve or anyone els on here tell me with what the models are showing at this point this morning which looks to me fantastic, are we closer to the planned Easterley in terms of timescale?. Like i believe around the 28th december just gone we had a fantastic set up showing and i believe it all went wrong at the last minute but not sure how many days out it did go wrong and then are cold weather went off down to greece and turkey i believe. Hopefully we are closer in terms of timescale this time round and things will turn out good this time round.

[northwestsnow]

Excellent EC 00Z mean.

Off to bed hoping for upgrades for when i wake..

[carinthian]

Two  synoptic pictures from UKMO this morning. The fax at 120t shows a developing battle ground between the maritime air mass to the west and the Arctic continental to the NE. Looking at the extended Atlantic chart at 168t looking like a backing of the wind flow across the British Isles with a continental SE ly favoured for the east. Looks like the stand off will just hold the true Ac air mass out of reach of the UK. at this stage.  Maybe a snow threat to develop from the west rather than the east as the fronts come up against the increasing cold air. Still a lot to play for. Think UKMO will hold back on full easterly convectional attack at the moment but a second bite of the cherry could easily evolve post 240t.

 C

[Matthew.]

7 minutes ago, Unleash the Beast said:

Could Steve or anyone els on here tell me with what the models are showing at this point this morning which looks to me fantastic, are we closer to the planned Easterley in terms of timescale?. Like i believe around the 28th december just gone we had a fantastic set up showing and i believe it all went wrong at the last minute but not sure how many days out it did go wrong and then are cold weather went off down to greece and turkey i believe. Hopefully we are closer in terms of timescale this time round and things will turn out good this time round.

Somewhere around the 10th of Feb so still nothing set in stone. On the professionals website the wind arrows do turn SE from then which is a good thing. From my experience if you get the -10c uppers in then your chances of seeing snow instead of rain is certain.

[Cheshire Freeze]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Excellent EC 00Z mean.

Off to bed hoping for upgrades for when i wake..

It's good in the medium timeframes but out at day 10 the mean is iffy...to be more specific, interference from the Azores high rather than a continual stream of disrupting lows

I think Steve Murr touched on this earlier. This isn't an issue if there is less pressure from the Canadian lobe of vortex and the Azores high can be displaced slightly further north as this wouldn't preclude a second wave of cold from the east. Too far south, however, and it's goodnight Vienna to a more sustained easterly outbreak. 

In terms of output later on today I'd A) like to see less interference from the Azores HP around day 10 and if it is to interfere, let's B) see if we can give it a nudge to a higher latitude.

On balance, given the factors we have going in our favour at present compared to earlier on & reduced intensity of the strat vortex, I believe we may actually see the further outlook evolve into something more favourable as time progresses (over the next few days). As ever, time will tell.

Edited February 2, 2017 by CreweCold

[Summer Sun]

Matt Hugo on ECM

 

Edited February 2, 2017 by Summer Sun

[snowice]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Matt Hugo on ECM

 

Thats a big improvement in the last 24hrs in the ENS,upgrades in the coming runs!

[SMU]

29 minutes ago, Unleash the Beast said:

Could Steve or anyone els on here tell me with what the models are showing at this point this morning which looks to me fantastic, are we closer to the planned Easterley in terms of timescale?. Like i believe around the 28th december just gone we had a fantastic set up showing and i believe it all went wrong at the last minute but not sure how many days out it did go wrong and then are cold weather went off down to greece and turkey i believe. Hopefully we are closer in terms of timescale this time round and things will turn out good this time round.

Yes we are closer

t120-144-168 is the transition

Scandi high is 99% a dead cert now - just the flow allignment towards the UK very unclear however ECM mean is excellent now all the way out to T240

 

expect the 10 - 15 debilt ENS to be the best yet...

S

[Man With Beard]

Worth bearing in mind that the ECM mean this morning is better than the GEFS mean at D9 (point taken about Azores HP at T240)...

  

... and that the GEFS produced a multitude of stonkers - 12 out of 22 options were the real deal for a HLB and lows on a southerly-tracking jet combo.

So you can only assume the ECM ensembles are even better.

[jvenge]

I'd tend to trust the high res operational runs for what happens between T120 and T144, especially with some ensemble support.

[Coopsy]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Yes we are closer

t120-144-168 is the transition

Scandi high is 99% a dead cert now -

Bold call - I'll eagerly await the transition. Hope you're right and that its position favours the UK

Still chance IMO of slack SE and battleground scenario....familiar story but hopefully not.

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes we are closer

t120-144-168 is the transition

Scandi high is 99% a dead cert now - just the flow allignment towards the UK very unclear however ECM mean is excellent now all the way out to T240

 

expect the 10 - 15 debilt ENS to be the best yet...

S

Yes, De Bilt should be COLD

I disagree that the day 10 mean chart is excellent though. There will be a fair few members in there which extend the Azores high NE and pull the main block S, jet over the top etc. It's something we ideally want to see eradicated in future runs IMO as it has been hinted at within GFS runs too. 

The good news is we have plenty of time until that point for amendments (for the better) to take place.

Edited February 2, 2017 by CreweCold

[SMU]

14 minutes ago, Daryl Dixon said:

Bold call - I'll eagerly await the transition. Hope you're right and that its position favours the UK

Still chance IMO of slack SE and battleground scenario....familiar story but hopefully not.

Yes - however the scandi high is all but a dead cert

its the flow around it which isnt still clear as well as how far it nudges west ..