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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


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Knee-jerk, a joke!?...if that is what you believe then simply don't follow. I was simply highlighting what the EC ENS are showing and to be honest certain people need to read before commentating, perh

Yes, I recognise these sage pieces of sentiment so well. The signals are always wrong, and the professionals (and others) who try to present and explain them, when an operational appears to take away

This is an unusual set up for the UK, hence the model variations. The bigger picture according to seriously knowledgeable people like @Tamara tends to suggest that the hemispheric factors that actuall

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    Not even Mr Trump will stop this Migration from the East

     

    That cold pool on the Scandi flank will find it's way here sooner or later

    C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_ECH1-216.gif

    I admire your optimism lol.

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  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

    A classic example of why the UK is so ridiculously unlucky for proper easterlies if the 12z runs are anything to go by.

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  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
    1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

    Most on here were hoping for much more than this by day 10. Cold and dry would sum that chart up.

    When have you seen 240 chart verifie from ECM get the block established and we might get lucky this time:)

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  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    12 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

    The charts are looking good  for some cold maybe a easterly with snow but the meto don't look to keen on a easterly maybe later in to February but you never no something could pop up and surprise us all and  Professionals .

    IMG_0313.PNG

    IMG_0313.PNG

    Erm, if it has not been a particularly high likelihood, well let me think, why on earth have most of the operational runs been showing an easterly over the last couple of days then?

    And then the ECM 12z turns up.

     

    Should we be looking at the control runs then instead of the operationals now then going forwards, after all they have not been showing an easterly? In fact the operational has been an outlier most of the time.

     

    So its maybe an easterly at the end of Feb sometime then, at T 650 or something. ok.

     

     

    ECM1-240-1.GIF

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  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    1 minute ago, snowice said:

    When have you seen 240 chart verifie from ECM get the block established and we might get lucky this time:)

    I do hope you are correct :) From many years of watching very similar scenarios, I don't think this is going to have the happy ending most on here crave.

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  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
    11 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    ECM 240, make of it what you will

    ECMOPEU12_240_1.png

    Maybe azores high ringing ne to scan it then retrograde nw opening a northerly? 

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  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    For the most part, the Ecm 12z doesn't look mild, indeed it looks rather chilly, especially later. unbelievably I noticed some coldies on here were complaining about this morning's  Ecm 00z at days 8, 9 and 10 even though it showed minus 10 850s over the uk!

    It's all to play for as the models still don't agree on Fridays low whether it will impact northern France or southern england but I'm remaining cautiously positive about a cold or very cold spell evolving, whether it happens to be early or mid Feb I think signs are there for cold / snow fans.:)

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  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset

    ECM whilst disappointing compared to last nights classic is really just showing a slower evolution which ties in with the Met office thinking with any real cold more likely to arrive later in the month. I,m always wary when the classic charts are a 168nplus rather than 96-120.  Hence my warning about not getting carried away yesterday evening. It could still come good but may take a bit longer than was suggested yesterday

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    2 minutes ago, snowray said:

    Erm, if it has not been a particularly high likelihood, well let me think, why on earth have most of the operational runs been showing an easterly over the last couple of days then?

    And then the ECM 12z turns up.

     

    Should we be looking at the control runs then instead of the operational now then going forwards, after all they have not been showing an easterly? In fact the operational has been an outlier most of the time.

     

    So its maybe an easterly at the end of Feb sometime then, at T 650 or something. ok.

     

     

    ECM1-240-1.GIF

    You make a valid point with regards to quite a few of the op runs showing easterlies and the ensembles not following. This makes a mockery of all those comments advising people to ignore ensembles and to only follow the operationals. The gfs ensembles have performed very well this winter.

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  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Taking the output as a whole today I think any chance of a quick Easterly has taken a bit if a backseat with a little too much Atlantic energy pushing East.

    This is more in line the MetO thinking that several bites at the cherry may be required before any kind of prolonged cold spell can back west.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    ECM is both much weaker with the low into Europe Sun-Mon and a bit faster with the Atlantic troughs over the following few days than UKMO and GFS

    Standard practice would be to view it with suspicion, but with the UK and end-of-line easterlies something like the ECM does feel all too familiar. The retrogressive signal for next weekend onward offers more reliable promise, provided the Euro trough doesn't become too broad while too far west.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    100% spot on - if the bulk of the ensemble members had shown the same, and then it disappeared you could complain....as it was (and still is) low probability, it needs to be treated as such.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

    Too much against the quick easterly option, there always was, nothing has changed. That northern arm has too much energy to relent (for now). I think Ian's 20% is a very fair shout.

    This is all leading into the more realistic window of opportunity, 10-14 days on from now.

    Anything decent before this (and it is most certainly feasible, if not exactly the favourite right now) will be a bonus (albeit a very welcome one!).

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    For the most part, the Ecm 12z doesn't look mild, indeed it looks rather chilly, especially later. unbelievably I noticed some coldies on here were complaining about this morning's  Ecm 00z at days 8, 9 and 10 even though it showed minus 10 850s over the uk!

    It's all to play for as the models still don't agree on Fridays low whether it will impact northern France or southern england but I'm remaining cautiously positive about a cold or very cold spell evolving, whether it happens to be early or mid Feb I think signs are there for cold / snow fans.:)

    Because some of us saw this morning's ecm run for the downgrade that it was. Once a downgrade ocurrs, it is generally followed by more downgrades and hence the ecm 12z came along and proved the point.

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  • Location: Orebro, Sweden
  • Weather Preferences: Summer time: 26-29 degrees and partly cloudy. Winter time: -4 to -7 and sun
  • Location: Orebro, Sweden

    I think it still looks fantastic next week for most parts of especially northern and central europé, UK not so good only chilly conditions. Right now GFS and ECM does not agree on wether the center of the high pressure over scandinavia will be, GFS is the better option beacuse on ECM it looks like it's too much to the east of Scandinavia. This might be the last chance for any longer period of cold and snow this winter, just hope charts like these continues to show coming days

    GFS wednesday 8 february.png

    ECM 8th february.png

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  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
    5 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    Taking the output as a whole today I think any chance of a quick Easterly has taken a bit if a backseat with a little too much Atlantic energy pushing East.

    This is more in line the MetO thinking that several bites at the cherry may be required before any kind of prolonged cold spell can back west.

    Yep, I think that is exactly where we are.

    In order to stop us being stuck in the dreaded No Man's land setup, we are going to need some Pacific forcing to help slow down / reverse zonality and back things west. It certainly looks like in that respect, the timing (just for once) may just be perfect!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
    33 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    All the update does is mention wet and windy and milder in the West.

    It constantly refers to the East being cooler and with more frequent periods of cold in the East.Maybe I am reading it wrong.This is usually how the Met portray impending easterly influences

     

    Not that this the place to dissect Met Office outlooks but the update today is actually better for cold than it was yesterday because it suggests a battleground scenario as early as next week (much like this evening's model output) whereas yesterday it was quite bullish about Westerlies prevailing right through the week so I feel the original posters comments are a little misinformed.

    The ECM 12z looks fine to me.  No early Easterly but no suggestion the block is going anywhere fast either.  Hopefully the Atlantic will relent just enough in the next week or so to allow the block to retrogress North and West?  Here's hoping.....

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  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    11 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    You make a valid point with regards to quite a few of the op runs showing easterlies and the ensembles not following. This makes a mockery of all those comments advising people to ignore ensembles and to only follow the operationals. The gfs ensembles have performed very well this winter.

    Indeed blizzard, time to start following the ensemble mean and not pay too much attention to the operationals, who quite frankly seem to have been on a P. Take!

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
    14 minutes ago, snowray said:

    Erm, if it has not been a particularly high likelihood, well let me think, why on earth have most of the operational runs been showing an easterly over the last couple of days then?

    And then the ECM 12z turns up.

     

    Should we be looking at the control runs then instead of the operationals now then going forwards, after all they have not been showing an easterly? In fact the operational has been an outlier most of the time.

     

    So its maybe an easterly at the end of Feb sometime then, at T 650 or something. ok.

     

     

    ECM1-240-1.GIF

     I was going what meto thinking later part Feb easterly I would love true easterly with snow to come off the models have been sniffing at something colder from the east for a few days now I just hope there right and not  taking us on a Merry dance again..:D

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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone

    Okay VERY STRANGE in here tonight still nothing has changed lets compare the differences at 120hr,

    Ecm looks more progressive with low at 120hr closer to the uk but a weaker low vs the uk & gfs model which have it as a stronger low but futher west so a blend of both could be the jackpot to achieving an early Easterly.

    Still all to play for in my eyes chill.

     

    ECM1-120 (11).gif

    gfs-0-120 (2).png

    UW120-21 (6).gif

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  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    3 minutes ago, snowray said:

    Indeed blizzard, time to start following the ensemble mean and not pay too much attention to the operationals, who quite frankly seem to have been on a P. Take!

    I'm not sure that I buy into that at all, SR; what exactly does the mean represent? Isn't it rather like planning to have 2.4 children?

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  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    8 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

    Not that this the place to dissect Met Office outlooks but the update today is actually better for cold than it was yesterday because it suggests a battleground scenario as early as next week (much like this evening's model output) whereas yesterday it was quite bullish about Westerlies prevailing right through the week so I feel the original posters comments are a little misinformed.

    The ECM 12z looks fine to me.  No early Easterly but no suggestion the block is going anywhere fast either.  Hopefully the Atlantic will relent just enough in the next week or so to allow the block to retrogress North and West?  Here's hoping.....

    Thank god ......thought I was reading it wrong

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    The more I view the ecm run the more horrible it seems. The 168 and 192 charts are horrific. Plus, anyone pinning their hopes on the more easy on the eye 216 and 240 charts I have some advice - Don't hold your breath! Why? Well, the obvious timescale involved but for a more important reason which is as follows - toggle between the 192 and 216 charts and there is one glaring mystery. What happens to the Icelandic low? Does it get abducted by aliens or something? It seems to just vanish into thin air. Now imagine if that low doesn't get abducted by aliens. I bet the day 9 and 10 charts wouldn't look so pretty.

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