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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


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Knee-jerk, a joke!?...if that is what you believe then simply don't follow. I was simply highlighting what the EC ENS are showing and to be honest certain people need to read before commentating, perh

Yes, I recognise these sage pieces of sentiment so well. The signals are always wrong, and the professionals (and others) who try to present and explain them, when an operational appears to take away

This is an unusual set up for the UK, hence the model variations. The bigger picture according to seriously knowledgeable people like @Tamara tends to suggest that the hemispheric factors that actuall

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Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    The ECM is very progressive and its already going pearshaped at T144hrs. You have to have the block facing the troughing head on and not angling away.

    Its not until T192hrs that the upstream pattern helps to leech some energy away from the troughing near the UK and there might be another chance if we get trough disruption at T216hrs.

     

    Edited by nick sussex
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  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

    Despite shorter term uncertainties in detail, the 144 UKMO and ECM are very close, both show the Scandi Ridge too far east to effect the uk...now we can see why the Met were never really interested. Odds on a proper Easterly lengthening this evening, Atlantic has too much energy. I personally  feel cold will come from the north later in the month and not the east.

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  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    23 hours ago, nick sussex said:
    1 minute ago, The Weather Dragon said:

    I did mention the grounding yesterday - this is reflected in the latest model output and METO update - further dampens the mood. 

    I agree. This just didn't look a goer to me. The meto would have mentioned the possibility but it was most improbable so they didn't. The PV in just the most convenient place to prevent the cold getting to the UK - again! 

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

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  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
    58 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    Are there signs that the cold will build before it 'leaks'  west in full around mid month?  Signs of potential slow up showing but still overall looking very good with huge build up to E and NE developing.  UKMO has the slider at t144 punching further east but still disrupting with negative tilt.  Is GFS picking up that the main solution will eventually retrograde to a GHP?  

     

    BFTP

    I agree very much that a retrograde is a strong possibility.

     

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  • Location: Otley(Leeds)
  • Location: Otley(Leeds)
    3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    The ECM is very progressive and its already going pearshaped at T144hrs. You have to have the block facing the troughing head on and not angling away.

     

    Look at how far north the scandi blocking extends, almost through the north pole splitting the vortex.  ECH1-192 (2).gif.

     

    I think this will come good late in the run. The ECM might just be showing us the slow route to deep cold rather than the gfs quick route!  

     

    Please refrain from knee jerk reactions run to run people.

     

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  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    And just to add insult to injury, the ecm delivers brutal Arctic cold to the north east US - again!

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  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    15 minutes ago, The Weather Dragon said:

    I did mention the grounding yesterday - this is reflected in the latest model output and METO update - further dampens the mood. 

    All the update does is mention wet and windy and milder in the West.

    It constantly refers to the East being cooler and with more frequent periods of cold in the East.Maybe I am reading it wrong.This is usually how the Met portray impending easterly influences

     

    Edited by winterof79
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  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    ECM 12z is a very realistic synoptic evolution, and with the UK climatology of recent years you would think the most plausible solution, however we are a long way off a certain forecast.

    ECMOPEU12_192_1.png

    And a slower route to cold ensues

    ECMOPEU12_216_1.png

    Edited by chris55
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  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

    Look at how far north the scandi blocking extends, almost through the north pole splitting the vortex.  ECH1-192 (2).gif.

     

    I think this will come good late in the run. The ECM might just be showing us the slow route to deep cold rather than the gfs quick route!

     

    Please refrain from knee jerk reactions run to run people.

     

    It may well do, but this does mean that we're back into territory where another variable might pop up. Its not just about getting the Scandi high but having the best cold pool to tap into.

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  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
    1 minute ago, s4lancia said:

    Made the schoolboy error of reading some comments on here before I went and viewed the charts myself (ECM currently part through).

    What a great 12z suite all in all. Nothing to worry about (any more than there was before they came out). All still VERY much to play for. Absolutely nothing has changed.

     

    No your right not alot has changed at all since lasts nights runs.

    It's a slow burner ecm slowest ukmo 2nd and the quickest gfs I do reckon were have cross model agreement by tomorrow  12z

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  • Location: Sheffield - 228m/748ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Sheffield - 228m/748ft ASL
    4 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

    Look at how far north the scandi blocking extends, almost through the north pole splitting the vortex.  ECH1-192 (2).gif.

     

    I think this will come good late in the run. The ECM might just be showing us the slow route to deep cold rather than the gfs quick route!  

     

    Please refrain from knee jerk reactions run to run people.

     

    Quite.

    +216h shows the enormity of the block, and an longdraw easterly flow being established.

    ECM1-216.GIF?01-0ECH1-216.GIF?01-0

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  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Well I guess getting a proper cold spell nearer 240 is more realistic going off the METO forecast. Looks like it could be the way on this run. So many variations to be confident of anything at the minute 

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  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Ian F

    12z ECMWF Det simply echoes the majority (30-odd from memory) 00z members that didn't go for cold/E'ly.

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  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    3 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

    Look at how far north the scandi blocking extends, almost through the north pole splitting the vortex.  ECH1-192 (2).gif.

     

    I think this will come good late in the run. The ECM might just be showing us the slow route to deep cold rather than the gfs quick route!  

     

    Please refrain from knee jerk reactions run to run people.

     

    Not sure on other people but I'm referring to the first attempt failing which I always thought it would, we are going to have a few fails on this one but ultimately have a moderate - good(ish) chance of getting there eventually, yes your right with that sharp ridging, that's bound to have some strat feedback, looking forward to tomorrows berlin plots.

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  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    2 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

    No your right not alot has changed at all since lasts nights runs.

    You're right enough. Today is just as dreich as yesterday was!:good:

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  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

    The charts are looking good  for some cold maybe a easterly with snow but the meto don't look to keen on a easterly maybe later in to February but you never no something could pop up and surprise us all and  Professionals .

    IMG_0313.PNG

    IMG_0313.PNG

    Edited by abbie123
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  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Ian F

    12z ECMWF Det simply echoes the majority (30-odd from memory) 00z members that didn't go for cold/E'ly.

    I guess he means initial Easterly!!

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  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    ECM 240, make of it what you will

    ECMOPEU12_240_1.png

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  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Not even Mr Trump will stop this Migration from the East

     

    That cold pool on the Scandi flank will find it's way here sooner or later

    C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_ECH1-216.gif

    Edited by winterof79
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  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    17 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    The ECM is very progressive and its already going pearshaped at T144hrs. You have to have the block facing the troughing head on and not angling away.

    Its not until T192hrs that the upstream pattern helps to leech some energy away from the troughing near the UK and there might be another chance if we get trough disruption at T216hrs.

     

    The ECM reminds me why I hate chasing easterlies so much! Everything has to be perfect to get a decent easterly to the UK.

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    MONITORING THE COLD TO OUR EAST AND THE SHORTER TERM PRESSURE PATTERNS OVER EUROPE

    I believe that there are three phases to watch out for in the models during the next few days.  These are the current and very short term pattern during the next 3 to 6 days through this weekend and into early next week. Then the "possible" evolution to an easterly around D7 to D12 - the medium term period. Finally D15 to D30 - the longer term period from mid-February through to early March. I already covered my views on the medium and longer term periods in my post earlier today (on page 38). Just to add to that, even if the first attempt at bringing the easterly right across us fails to fully deliver the goods, I believe that we will be primed for the second much stronger push with easterlies and then northerlies. The models will take some time to nail down the detail. I will not be surprised if the 12z ECM (just starting to come out as I am writing this) is not quite as good as the 0z - we just need to be patient and wait for a few more runs. Right now, I am returning to my assessment of the short term which may well influence the evolution to the interim or medium term easterly.

    Those of you who have read some of my previous posts will know that I "stubbornly" continued to stress the importance of the cold block to our east and how the models were continuing to under estimate it. My post on Tuesday morning (see page 23) demonstrated that the cold had only been shifted slightly to the east and had only lost a little of its intensity. I also drew attention to the cold intensifying over Scandinavia.  I showed that the HP was still hanging on around the Black Sea and had only weakened slightly. I also indicated that there was a ridge developing towards Scandinavia. I produced that update in response to some posters on the MOD querying "where would the cold come from". I see that a few posters have re-stated this since then and also said "that it is too far east". Well, not only is it much closer than some believe but it is showing signs of intensifying again, not just over western Asia and north-west Russia but even more so over Scandinavia - just where we will need it in the D7 to D12 period. 

    The temperature and pressure charts below show the current position with "live" updating, the position around lunchtime today and yesterday (close to maximum temps) as well as for early this morning (close to minimum temps). For those wanting to look at the last couple of days, for continuity, please refer back to my charts on page 23. The cold has only weakened slightly over central Europe but has become more widespread again further east. The cold over Scandinavia has steadily intensified. The HP has become much more meridional in its orientation. There is still a cell close to the Black Sea but the ridge to the north has developed further with a separate cell starting to appear just to the east of Scandinavia over Finland. With the southerly Jet Stream becoming the main arm and the northern arm weakening and moving around the top of Scandinavia (see the chart below for current position), I just do not see the Atlantic pushing this pattern too far east and perhaps, not at all. So, already a strong block with the cold never too far away and showing signs of strengthening, particularly over Scandinavia. This should be available to tap into when (or if) the right synoptic pattern unravels. The cold should also be topped up from the east as time passes. 

    European Surface Temperature Charts:

                        Current "live"                                                               Feb 1st    1250                                                               Feb 1st  0650                                                              Jan 31st 1250

    temp_eur2.png                        temp_eur2-12.png                       temp_eur2-06.png                      temp_eur2-12.png  

    The two "live" charts above and below are usually updated at regular intervals (at every 10 minutes). When comparing temperatures, you should take account of the time of the day and the natural min/max variations.

     

    European Surface Pressure Charts:

                       Current "live"                                                              Feb 1st    1250                                                               Feb 1st  0650                                                               Jan 31st 1250

     pression2_eur2.png                       pression2_eur2-12.png                       pression2_eur2-06.png                      pression2_eur2-12.png                                                                                                               

    Jet Stream - GFS (updates on each run)

     gfs-5-18.png?12

     

    EDIT:  It is worth reminding those of you that missed it, that I did a comparison between the end of January 1972 and the end of January 2017. The charts looked very similar to the current D5 to D10 charts. My January 23rd post entitled "JANUARY 2017 MODEL OUTPUT COMPARED TO JANUARY 1972 - SOME REMARKABLE SIMILARITIES" appears on page 299 of the December 29th winter model thread which was closed shortly after my post appeared. I do not think that there is any way of copying it across as it contains many current and archive charts and the moderators might object to this.  If I get several PM requests, I might consider reproducing it in full.

     

    Edited by Guest
    Correcting typos and to ensure that all the links and charts work properly.
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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    ECM 240, make of it what you will

    ECMOPEU12_240_1.png

    Most on here were hoping for much more than this by day 10. Cold and dry would sum that chart up.

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