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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    2 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

    Round 2 anyone.?!

     

    gfseu-6-276.png

    Indeed...

    However watch the uppers get moderated over the continent between 300-336 hrs. That would never have happened mid January and is a sure sign that meteorological spring is not far away at that point. Prefer my cold from the NE after mid Feb to negate that issue!

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    Knee-jerk, a joke!?...if that is what you believe then simply don't follow. I was simply highlighting what the EC ENS are showing and to be honest certain people need to read before commentating, perh

    Yes, I recognise these sage pieces of sentiment so well. The signals are always wrong, and the professionals (and others) who try to present and explain them, when an operational appears to take away

    This is an unusual set up for the UK, hence the model variations. The bigger picture according to seriously knowledgeable people like @Tamara tends to suggest that the hemispheric factors that actuall

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    1 minute ago, mulzy said:

    We need a significant westward correction in the 120-144 range otherwise we could be forever chasing!

    Yes without a doubt, its the Atlantic thats holding everything up and creating that bulge in the high. We end up with the dreaded mild easterly. Although it wont feel mild of course.

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

    Indeed...

    However watch the uppers get moderated over the continent between 300-336 hrs. That would never have happened mid January and is a sure sign that meteorological spring is not far away at that point. Prefer my cold from the NE after mid Feb to negate that issue!

    gfs-1-360.png?12

    Not that it happens here

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    And as if it could not get any better, round 2 turns up.:shok:

    gfs-0-384.png

    gfs-1-384.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    1 minute ago, radiohead said:

    Fantastic

    gfs-0-384.png?12

    If only that was tomorrows chart.  Hopefyully we have a good set of ENS for a change as lately they haven't been very cold at all - mean wise!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    Just now, D.V.R said:

    I'm not gonna be choosy, CC - As long as it's cold enough for it to snow, settle and stick around for a while..?:) 

    Aye but given we're now into Feb we need this one to land....we don't have the wriggle room we would have had on the 1st of Jan. The more mileage we can get out of the first attempt (144 hrs onwards) the better. Hopefully we can improve the shape and posture of that HP.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Indeed...

    However watch the uppers get moderated over the continent between 300-336 hrs. That would never have happened mid January and is a sure sign that meteorological spring is not far away at that point. Prefer my cold from the NE after mid Feb to negate that issue!

    I still think we're ok for now on that one ... this famously happened at the end of Feb in 2005 or 2006 I believe? 

    For me, it's always once we get to about Feb 20th, the tide turns on Euro cold-pooling. So we're a week inside the line!! Now or never though!

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Still concerned for the coldie contingent (assume that's pretty well everyone!) that the current modelling has us just too far west

    plenty to enjoy watching in the meantime and always the chance that even with the deep cold not getting here, a battleground could result which, with a continental feed, should provide more than enough interest 

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    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
    Just now, Ed Stone said:

    I really don't get all this 'February-March-is-too-warm-to-snow' malarkey...I've lost count of how many February-March periods have delivered long-lying snow...1963, '65, '70, '78, '79, '85, '86, '96, 2001 (Scotland), 2013, plus many more that I've forgotten.

    IMO, sub-minus ten uppers are sub-minus ten uppers?:D

    Three more for Scotland there - Feb 2002, Feb 2009, Mar 2006.

    In terms of "tapping" into colder air - you need there to be cold air to tap into. Yes, the earth is slowly beginning to warm at this time of the year, but there's bitter cold to be tapped into until at least 6 weeks away. The GFS 12hz show what can happen when you have a favourably aligned vortex! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    The GEFS don't look great at 144 with most of the cold from the East heads to our North - luckily I'm in Norway for the 3rd week of Feb so hopefully at least they get a cold blast!!

     

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    The 12Z is looking good for coldness next week. It would make a big change compared to what the last few Februarys has brought ie rain & gales! 

    With regards to being too mild increasing daylight hours / strength of the sun etc, many meteorologists would tell you that with us being an island, we have more chance of snow falling at lower levels & coastal areas at this time of year because the sea temperatures are almost at their coldest.

    Here on the coast in S Wales, I remember seeing some great snowfalls and even the odd blizzard during February & March, proper snow days they were and there's no reason why it couldn't be possible to happen again sometime  :) 

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    The GEFS don't look great at 144 with most of the cold from the East heads to our North - luckily I'm in Norway for the 3rd week of Feb so hopefully at least they get a cold blast!!

     

    Ohhh don't look, you might be in the mild sector there Ali....Much safer bet heading to Greece for your snow fix! hehe:)

    gfs-1-288.png

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Its a shame the models want to torture the thread with two attempts needed, you'd think that the UK deserved to get there in one attempt without worrying about the second go.

    In terms of the cold pool to the east this clearly is nowhere being agreed on with the GFS and UKMO having a different view of the block. Until this is resolved then theres no way of knowing what the depth of cold might be to draw on and where exactly that will go.

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
    Just now, CreweCold said:

    And no-one has said we can't get snow in February 

    :rofl:

    Do people actually read?!

    I know exactly where you're coming from mate. Given the severity of the cold pooling, I'm not surprised it has shown to be slightly modified. The Black Sea is also playing a part in that somewhat too I'd imagine. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    11 minutes ago, The Weather Dragon said:

    We will miss out on the first attempt at this easterly - next week

    Sorry to dissapoint the coldies

    The Atlantic is still to powerful to allow the westward movement of the blocking high

    However we may be successful with a second bite of the cherry

    Reinforced with Greenland blocking

    You'll all have to be patient - Although time is running out !

    Your evidence for this assertion please? 

    To me UKMO looks poised for a very cold easterly. The GFS gets a easterly flow into SE England as early as day 5 cripes the Atlantic will be hold back, I'd say it's unmistakeable it will turn colder from the east/se. The question is the depth of the cold, the duration and the trajectory of the deep cold is very uncertain. We're seeing quite big changes between GFS op runs, but they follow the same path it's cold. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl

    Arpege at 96hr closer to UKMO.. Could be quite a stormy day Sunday!

     

    arpegeeur2-0-96.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    As much as a week or more of snow would be fantabulous, just having some snow at all would be a good start, and I can pick out plenty of Feb-Mar snow events even at my location south of the strategically placed M4, some that produced more than just 1 day of snowcover:

    20th-21st Mar 2001 / 26th Feb - 02nd Mar 2004 / 12th Mar 2004 / 28th Feb 2005 / 01st Mar 2006 / 12th Mar 2006 / 04th Mar 2009 etc etc

    In terms of the current models, FI for me starts as early as Sunday and what happens with that low. It looks like each approaching low will take an increasingly southerly track, tomorrow's swinging up over the country, Friday's across the south of the country and Sunday's south of the country. What happens after that is anyone's guess and I'd still say it's very much 50/50 Atlantic vs. the east. The GFS 12Z however is encouraging in that the next Atlantic onslaught next week is stopped in its tracks and gobbled up, leading to a sort of undercut which would produce a brilliant snowy scenario by next Friday if only a more continental drift could be established ahead of time with slightly lower uppers. As for FI, well it's just that, but what a lovely reload the 'westerly GFS' brings us.

    h850t850eu.pngh850t850eu.pngh850t850eu.png

    The ECM to my eyes, makes for a cleaner transition to a cold easterly flow with better uppers in place for a potential snow event next Friday without the mixing out of uppers from SE Europe.

    ecmt850.216.png

    Annoyingly I can't seem to load the UKMO charts to compare but it definitely seems like their forecasts are being a lot more cautious than their model. 

    All in all, so nice to have an interesting period of model watching (so long as it actually delivers) and lots to be positive about after the next few days of autumnal weather.

    Edited by MP-R
    To add 12th Mar 2006.
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    I see the February issue re snow has reared up again. The issue isn't so much snow won't lie or last just that as you head towards the latter part of winter what can deliver changes slightly. As long as you get the right synoptics theres no need to worry but the European mainland can't say produce its own cold pools as you might get in the heart of winter.

    Later in February shade is more important to preserve snow, but as long as you keep negative dew points snow can last for a good while. I can say from experience down here that I've been shocked at how long snow can last even with temps well into single digits, importantly the low dew point slows any thawing.

    That's always something to keep an eye on if you want your snow to last.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    This very strong Arctic/Sacndi high, at this latitude, will have the "clout" to deflect the incoming Atlantic, and to a point that will be regardless of whats happening directly to our west, a retrograde pattern would surely emerge, and one way or another we would end up with a flow from the east.

    Whether that includes some record breaking 850s or not the cold continental flow would be sufficient for any approaching fronts to produce some potential snowfalls.

    Just look at how the Atlantic onslaught gets crushed into submission by the building block.

    120, block building, very cold uppers moving into Scandinavia

    GFSOPEU12_120_1.png

    144, Atlantic lows doing there best to push east, but with the block and associated cold surface conditions, they are hitting a brick wall

    GFSOPEU12_144_1.png

    164, what looked like a raging Atlantic at 144 with two strong lows, now shows one low retreating/disrupting against the block, in turn actually supporting the growth of the block!! its almost a self fulfilling prophesy! As long as we don't see the Atlantic "over the top" of the high then I think we are in for a continued period of colder conditions

    GFSOPEU12_165_1.png

    Obviously the eastward/westward correction of the pattern as a whole is very important, and corrections either way could have big differences on how the UK ends up being affected, but overall its not a bad place to be NWP wise as we head into Feb.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Just sensible Model discussion please from here on in.

    If your post happens to go missing it's because it doesn't belong in this thread. 

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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