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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    UKMO T144

    UW144-21.GIF?01-17

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    Knee-jerk, a joke!?...if that is what you believe then simply don't follow. I was simply highlighting what the EC ENS are showing and to be honest certain people need to read before commentating, perh

    Yes, I recognise these sage pieces of sentiment so well. The signals are always wrong, and the professionals (and others) who try to present and explain them, when an operational appears to take away

    This is an unusual set up for the UK, hence the model variations. The bigger picture according to seriously knowledgeable people like @Tamara tends to suggest that the hemispheric factors that actuall

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    4 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

    Why? 

    Very similar but UKMO probably colder air to our east.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    UKMO ... probably 40% chance of going on to be very cold from the east, or 60% chance the Azores ridge /Altantic low will time unfavourably and keep the pattern too far north.

    From previous experience, better to be too far north than south at this stage in the modelling...

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

    Why? 

    Better shape to the high over Scandinavia with the lows running underneath from west to east .

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    Just now, frosty ground said:

    A correction west before then would be useful

    Yes this is what as been lacking, we still have time.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    1 minute ago, D.V.R said:

    Better shape to the high over Scandinavia with the lows running underneath from west to east .

    Perhaps a nod to February-March 1947?:yahoo:

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    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    h850t850eu.png

     

    Interesting, not far away from a major snow event for Scotland if the cold air collides with that heavy rain coming in from the Atlantic. Only 5 days away too! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl

     

    Just now, Ed Stone said:

    Perhaps a nod to February-March 1947?:yahoo:

    Are you that old, Pete..?!:laugh:

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

    Perhaps a nod to February-March 1947?:yahoo:

    OMG do you really think so?:help::clapping:

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    4 minutes ago, snowray said:

    Yes this is what as been lacking, we still have time.

    We may not need a correction west- as Steve Murr has pointed out several times it's the second attempt post 144 hrs that looks to pull the deep cold pool westwards....you can see this on the 12z GFS...

    144...all too far E as per UKMO

    gfsnh-0-144.png?12

    180...we're in the E'ly flow

    gfsnh-0-180.png?12

    Could be an interesting FI as that HP starts to extend N&W

    gfsnh-0-192.png?12

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    1 minute ago, snowray said:

    OMG do you really think so?:help::clapping:

    Only in so far as quite few lows moved west-to-east in that cold spell...Don't get too carried away!:D

    And no, DVR, I'm not 'that old'!:clap:

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

    What an epic run this is. Colder than the 06z.

    gfs-9-204.png

    gfs-9-198.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

    Very very near miss on GEM

    gem-1-180.png?12

    Near miss in terms of a direct hit of the coldest uppers, but unlike GFS we get a decent snow event with attendant occluding front traversing the UK

    gem-0-186.png?12

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    So, out to T200 ish we have the same type scenario as the last few runs and we do get some cold feed from the East, I'm pretty sure a cold feed is going to happen later next week but the variations of how this happen are very different from run to run.  Not really worth looking to far beyond 144 at the minute other than to do some FI booming here and there, the key set up is between day 6 and 8, longevity depends on so many factors many of which are hard to hold onto on our island.

    All in all we are no further on than at this point yesterday other than a fight between the East and West looks likely to start late next week - the East initially looks the one with bigger muscles!!! Big Freeze is by no way guaranteed.

    This GFS run isn't an upgrade that is for sure, SE feed but not very cold, you watch though - it'll not be on the warmer side of the ensembles and we'll all be saying "follow the ensembles".

     

    Edited by Ali1977
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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Very very near miss on GEM

    gem-1-180.png?12

    I will take that miss. The East could take a pounding over the next week or two. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    And as usual, guess who never missed out......yup you got it, coldest air heading towards GREECE!

    gfs-1-264.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    5 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    I will take that miss. The East could take a pounding over the next week or two. 

    I find it worrying that some of the models are showing the cold moving northwestwards which can create a low of the north sea that can cut off the cold supply.

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl

    Round 2 anyone.?!

     

    gfseu-6-276.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    Just now, karyo said:

    I find it worrying that some of the models are showing the cold moving northwestwards which can create a low of the north sea that can cut off the cold supply.

    I agree, not just that but it's also not ideal to be having air mixed in from Greece & SEwards. We could do with seeing the HP sorting out it's 'saggy bottom' and lifting its tail a little more. Would also make it more effective at maintaining a cold feed of uppers.

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    We need a significant westward correction in the 120-144 range otherwise we could be forever chasing!

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