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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

    I've heard it says the GEM models 850hpa tempa as too high. It seems to me it also models 2m temps too low. Or am I imagining things? Here GEM vs GFS for tomorrow morning. 

    gem-9-18.png

    gfs-9-18.png

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Re any snow for the south east moving north tomorrow. Even the higher resolution models disagree with how much precip will fall and whether its mainly rain or snow initially, the favoured area currently is East Sussex/Kent, London more especially eastern areas running north into East Anglia.

    Lots of uncertainty with this even just 18hrs out. Probably just a case of seeing what develops but it looks like arriving after 5 am, no guarantees it will amount to much even if it does produce some snow.

    PS today is probably the best illustration of why 850 values taken alone without looking at the synoptics can prove very misleading in winter. Today over most of the UK these have been above freezing and yet many locations have recorded their coldest day for several years.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    54 minutes ago, Alexis said:

    This is a good point. I don't remember a high of -2C in South East (which we've seen in Southend) being forecast for today at the beginning of the week!

    today was picked out as being very cold at the beginning of the week. I remember singularity posting after an ecm op (perhaps sunday evening) that Thursday looked bitter

    the forecast has followed suit although you wouldn't find them forecasting sub zero several days away !

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    Can the surface ridge to the north on the ECM at 72/96 gain some traction and deflect the Atlantic south? Probably not, most likely not, but this "tussle" between the the Atlantic vs the Euro block is certainly a continuing saga. By 144 we still don't have a convincing zonal flow.

    72

    ECMOPEU12_72_1.png

    96

    ECMOPEU12_96_1.png

    144

    ECMOPEU12_144_1.png

    At this point it simply leaves the UK in a pretty dull scenario with the Atlantic lows stalling and bringing us a wet and windy southerly. But if we were to see some kind of an underut then the pattern would evolve quickly into something more favourable for colder conditions potentially following on. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Pembrokeshire
    Just now, chris55 said:

    Can the surface ridge to the north on the ECM at 72/96 gain some traction and deflect the Atlantic south? Probably not, most likely not, but this "tussle" between the the Atlantic vs the Euro block is certainly a continuing saga. By 144 we still don't have a convincing zonal flow.

    72

    ECMOPEU12_72_1.png

    96

    ECMOPEU12_96_1.png

    144

    ECMOPEU12_144_1.png

    At this point it simply leaves the UK in a pretty dull scenario with the Atlantic lows stalling and bringing us a wet and windy southerly. But if we were to see some kind of an underut then the pattern would evolve quickly into something more favourable for colder conditions potentially following on. 

    As previously mentioned this is loco-zonal and not where we want to be.

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
    1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

    I've heard it says the GEM models 850hpa tempa as too high. It seems to me it also models 2m temps too low. Or am I imagining things? Here GEM vs GFS for tomorrow morning. 

    gem-9-18.png

    gfs-9-18.png

    for the netherlands gem seems to be better, the fine mesh hirlam model predicts temperatures between -8 and -2

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    you can put lipstick on a pig but its still a pig. no point dressing up the models at the moment. the ops continue to trend towards their extended ens modelling and that doesn't deliver winter to nw Europe.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
    24 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    you can put lipstick on a pig but its still a pig. no point dressing up the models at the moment. the ops continue to trend towards their extended ens modelling and that doesn't deliver winter to nw Europe.

     

    the weather modeled seems to fit the current and predicted mjo-phases(3 and 4, the suckiest phases ), how good are these models in predicting mjo phase and amplitude?

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    46 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    Can the surface ridge to the north on the ECM at 72/96 gain some traction and deflect the Atlantic south? Probably not, most likely not, but this "tussle" between the the Atlantic vs the Euro block is certainly a continuing saga. By 144 we still don't have a convincing zonal flow.

    72

    ECMOPEU12_72_1.png

    96

    ECMOPEU12_96_1.png

    144

    ECMOPEU12_144_1.png

    At this point it simply leaves the UK in a pretty dull scenario with the Atlantic lows stalling and bringing us a wet and windy southerly. But if we were to see some kind of an underut then the pattern would evolve quickly into something more favourable for colder conditions potentially following on. 

    Indeed. The models haven't exactly covered themselves in glory this winter past the day 5 timeframe. I won't be worrying about any charts past day 5 as these always change to some degree and sometimes quite markedly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
    44 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    you can put lipstick on a pig but its still a pig. no point dressing up the models at the moment. the ops continue to trend towards their extended ens modelling and that doesn't deliver winter to nw Europe.

     

    Yes that's about the sum of it Nick.

    A return to our normal westerly Atlantic driven muck. Probably best for cold/snow lovers to take this chance to have a week or so away from the models in the hope that come mid Feb something more appetizing may be on offer. That's certainly what I intend to do.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    8 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    Let's close the thread then.... 2nd post like this today

    Not everyone is interested in looking out for wintry cold patterns, also if that's what's been showing then there's no covering that up, Knocker might come out the woodshed at least. 

    Is the JMA a credible model with the strat? Probably not.. It has a very beefy warming at 10hpha off the scale at T48 looks pretty major GFS isn't so bold, nice colours it must be said. :p 

    Winter is not done with us yet....

    image.gifimage.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(
    14 minutes ago, mcweather said:

    Yes that's about the sum of it Nick.

    A return to our normal westerly Atlantic driven muck. Probably best for cold/snow lovers to take this chance to have a week or so away from the models in the hope that come mid Feb something more appetizing may be on offer. That's certainly what I intend to do.

    Yeah I agree, still find it pretty amazing that we have had nearly two months of winter without much zonality at all and the weather has been pretty stagnant right through, yet we have somehow got to this point without a real cold spell...The kind we are looking for anyway. As Nick (bluearmy) says..You can't polish a tu rd and that's the cross agreement with the models, 

    Hey ho we can handle it, we're all cross-eyed from the chances shown this winter anyhow!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Less said about the ECM the better! Deep 940mb low, wind and gales. I guess it's all eyes on the potential SSW for some divine intervention!

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    19 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    UKMO extended = wet and windy

    ukm2.2017020212.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

    Personally i dont like the rendering of these 168 UKMO charts, they do not show the bigger picture! For all we know a giant Scandi high could be to our north east or a incoming Kettly high and we would be none the wiser.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    Ecm 12z ensembles are interesting in the sense that there are many more cold runs at days 4 to 6 than this morning's suite. Mmm!

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    Ecm 12z ensembles are interesting in the sense that there are many more cold runs at days 4 to 6 than this morning's suite. Mmm!

    And still differences between the models in the mid range juncture. Yes, looking likely for an atlantic spell for a little while for the UK but after that, who knows. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Whilst the models are in full agreement that the atlantic will finally nudge out the influence of high pressure, I can't say they are doing it in convincing style, hints we will maintain a more amplified flow with fronts struggling to make speedy assaults across the country, it looks a feeding ground for secondary low formation rotating around the parent low anchored out to our west, no long drawn southwesterly fetch, in northern parts some colder air at times as well - jetstream more southerly positioned, fronts splintering off from the low anchoring there way northwards across the country and back in on themselves. A messy picture, not your clean cut marked warm/cold sectors pattern.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

    8 out of the last 11 posts have been removed as they're not model discussion.....quality posting, well done :80:

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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
    30 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Whilst the models are in full agreement that the Atlantic will finally nudge out the influence of high pressure, I can't say they are doing it in convincing style, hints we will maintain a more amplified flow with fronts struggling to make speedy assaults across the country, it looks a feeding ground for secondary low formation rotating around the parent low anchored out to our west, no long drawn southwesterly fetch, in northern parts some colder air at times as well - jetstream more southerly positioned, fronts splintering off from the low anchoring there way northwards across the country and back in on themselves. A messy picture, not your clean cut marked warm/cold sectors pattern.

     

     

    Quite agree. Little doubt we are heading into a more Atlantic sourced weather, just not convinced the ECM of the other day wasn't actually on to something, just much too early. It all looks a little half hearted, it won't take too much more of a southerly track/angle of the jetstream to swing things fairly quickly back in our favour.

    Watch this space, I get the feeling we may not have seen the end of that meandering weak, yet increasingly influential, wedge of heights over GL that the ECM was showing the other day.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

    Must apologise as I don't get to spend as much time viewing the models as I used to. However to me I am spotting a slight backtrack from the Atlantic with a correction W by the 18Z.

    http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1021.gif

    Still not convinced about next week. I am sure a milder spell will occur but this could be much shorter  lived than the models currently suggest.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    There's no ignoring the deep trough signal extending from the mid-Atlantic across to the UK, but at the same time, the jet will be tracking south of usual and with that configuration there will always be a chance that one of the potential intense lows doesn't find a sweet spot and remains as a shallow secondary low that could make a run south of the UK with a bit of luck.

    Okay, a lot of luck :D

    From the latest guidance it'll take until about a week into February for the MJO to start providing some useful ammunition with which to reconfigure the pattern to something more pleasing to those not happy with stormy weather and highly variable temperatures (I'm actually quite alright with a bit of that down this way, as long as it doesn't go on for too long). At that time it'll either be battling a vortex returning to the pole, an unhelpfully displaced vortex or, in the by far most desirable scenario, a vortex that has been knocked right of its feet and displaced bodily into western Eurasia as a result of a secondary wave of warming that starts around day 10 and which ECM seems particularly keen on - much more so than GFS

    Chances are the MJO gets there ahead of any vortex knock-out so there could be a(nother) difficult period of model watching in early Feb as the models struggle to resolve a more finely balanced situation. None of this is at all certain though, what with model MJO projections having proved unusually dodgy at times so far this season. Yet I continue to focus on it as a key driver because it's integral to adjusting the global atmospheric angular momentum budget in favourable ways for wintry weather in our part of the hemisphere, as Tamara has kindly been reminding us from time to time. Other key components include mountain torque events for example, but I'm less well practiced at spotting these in advance.

    ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

    I can be said though that this is the best picture painted by ECMF and UKME (based on extrapolation) this season so far. GEFS is a bit quick to leave the W Pacific behind to be what we really want, despite how good phase 7-8 transitions can be in Feb. CANM paints an undesirable version of events that, as much as I want to, I can't go ahead and discount due to the usual slew of caveats. 

    Right, that's the net of hope cast out yet again in  'the winter of the dangling carrot' or whatever you might wish to call it. Jan has essentially been a very near miss - those epic model runs at the turn of the year showed us what ended up romping across pretty much the whole of Southern Europe and has only now decided to come roaring at us, from the southeast, as the brunt of it makes its (long-awaited by S. European residents) departure. We got to experience a single day with some of the conditions that we could well have had for a fortnight or longer. A small mercy, I say! :vava::rolleyes:

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Not a great deal of changes so far from the 18z in the reliable timeframe, other than to say the initial resistance from the block to the east means fronts making really slow progress across the UK next Tuesday/Weds, parts of England and Wales could get rather wet, though I guess rainfall is in deficit this winter - so every little helps.

    gfsgif_tues.gif

    It's not until after mid-week next week that we see the big Atlantic storms modelled to roll in towards the NW, as we see a strong jet streak push across the  Atlantic and fragments of the  trop vortex engulfing N Canada and Greenland break off and head across the Atlantic as shortwaves that engage and deepen intense lows.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Does anyone know what the latest EC46 is suggesting please?

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Does anyone know what the latest EC46 is suggesting please?

    I think most have sacked that one off after it's dismal performance this season lol

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