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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Though we continue to see spectacular possibilities, a bit of honesty needed too.

    We're not looking at a zonal train - certainly no, the Atlantic is going to be held back by heights to the east.

    But we're not looking at a convincing cold trend either. What we're looking at here is a complete mash-up between T144 and T240.

    The near-certainties are: 1. HLB even further north than Scandi and 2. low pressure pretty much to our west and possibly on a negative tilt.

    Sounds good. But the trouble is in the middle. Current modelling for T192 favours a large area from the UK out to the Baltics which is a complete mix e.g.

    gens-9-1-192.png  

    and of course the ECM op

    ECM1-216.GIF?01-12

    There are all kinds of possibilities here. In the first chart, a ridge could poke through from Iberia, splitting the east trough and west trough and forcing mild up through the UK. Or the colder air could simply flow north of us. The NE ridge may even be close to collapse. 

    The ECM chart is even worse. There's all sorts of combinations possible here, depending on how and when the troughs merge or miss each other.

    What is needed to get the cold in is a much cleaner pattern. A more solid, round Scandi High, and a more organised area of troughing to the south. Also, we need ridging from the south to force to the west of the Atlantic low rather than to the east - a tricky call.

    I do remain fairly optimistic, because we've seen just last week a situation where the models had us in a complete muddle at T240 (with that weird Atlantic mini-high), but by the time we got nearer to T0, the picture was far less muddled. 

    I think it is quite possible that in the next 48 hours, the models will work out a much simpler solution, where the phasing of troughs will become cleaner. If that works in our favour, a big freeze is possible. If not, a complete miss again.

    If this messy picture is correct, though, I would be surprised if deep, deep cold makes it to the UK as it usually only gets through on a clean, unobstructed path.

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    Knee-jerk, a joke!?...if that is what you believe then simply don't follow. I was simply highlighting what the EC ENS are showing and to be honest certain people need to read before commentating, perh

    Yes, I recognise these sage pieces of sentiment so well. The signals are always wrong, and the professionals (and others) who try to present and explain them, when an operational appears to take away

    This is an unusual set up for the UK, hence the model variations. The bigger picture according to seriously knowledgeable people like @Tamara tends to suggest that the hemispheric factors that actuall

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Coffee has been smelt wafting on an Easterly breeze at Exeter:D

    East meets West a possibility

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Overall the models all trending the same way but the set up of the block is now the issue. I think I remember something similar to the ECM output in Feb 2012 where the deep cold moved in that direction forming a shortwave and running nw not west.

    What we want to see is not an extension of the ridge from the east with high centre over Russia but the main centre over Scandi, that's the main difference with todays ECM compared with yesterday evenings.

    The orientation and exactly where any blocking sets up is still open to changes.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    Coffee has been smelt wafting on an Easterly breeze at Exeter:D

    Not according to their long range!! Yet.

    I think they're concentrating on the possible storm track on Friday first 

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    Not according to their long range!! Yet.

    I think they're concentrating on the possible storm track on Friday first 

    Updated for North 11.47:DSorry mods

    "Colder interludes widely for East"

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: Kent
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy winters
  • Location: Kent

    Check out Big Joe B. Daily update on Weatherbell. Joe talking about what the models are showing for Europe/UK

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Just Model Output Discussion please in here otherwise posts will go missing. There is the model banter/chat thread open for all other discussions.

    Thanks.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Here we go with the 12z, both UKMO and GFS so hopefully between them we are a little closer to knowing where we may head early next week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
    2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

    Overall the models all trending the same way but the set up of the block is now the issue. I think I remember something similar to the ECM output in Feb 2012 where the deep cold moved in that direction forming a shortwave and running nw not west.

    What we want to see is not an extension of the ridge from the east with high centre over Russia but the main centre over Scandi, that's the main difference with todays ECM compared with yesterday evenings.

    The orientation and exactly where any blocking sets up is still open to changes.

     

     

    Yes this is the 2012 one - as you say the problem here was partly because the high wasn't centred over Scandi but too far East etc.

    feb 2012.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Wa

    1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

    gfs-0-96.png?12

    Storm for the south, a feature that keeps appearing.

     

    Yes the Sunday one looks more potent than the Fri one, as this low moves SE I think it will open up  the Easterly flow a little faster.  Wasn't so sure early on but the cold is closer at 102 that the 06z.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    GFS vastly different at day 3, can only imagine this having a big knock on effect. 

     

    Edit: apologies linked wrong charts

     

     

    Edited by Weathizard
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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    This looks very good at D5, nice low there over Italy propping up the high.

    gfs-0-114.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    gfs-0-108.png?12

    Easterly by day 5....

    Meet Spoilers arch enemy.....Trigger

    East meets West coming to a window near you soon

    gfs-2-120.png?12

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl

    UKMO at 96 looks slightly better than GFS at the same time.

     

    UN96-21.gif

    gfsnh-0-96.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    Just now, D.V.R said:

    UKMO at 96 looks slightly better than GFS at the same time.

     

    UN96-21.gif

    gfsnh-0-96.png

    Look at that train of frigid air attacking Europe on the UKMO. Need a slow animation of its progression with a music backing of the "The Imperial March (Darth Vader's Theme)" from Star Wars.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Cold running along the base of our developing Scandi heading for the Channel Ferry not the North Sea:wink:

    gfsnh-0-138.png?12

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    T144 Atlantic fighting back, but not for much longer surely.

    UKMO looking good at T96.

    gfs-0-144.png

    gfs-1-144.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
    2 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

    UKMO at 96 looks slightly better than GFS at the same time.

     

    UN96-21.gif

    gfsnh-0-96.png

    Why? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    UKMO T120, yes better than GFS.

    UW120-21.GIF

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