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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    18z follows the normal uk winter mantra in that anything that can go wrong will go wrong.

    I think given the lack of solid ensemble support it was inevitable that GFS would throw something like this particularly given the short term variables on offer.

    I would still say 70% chance still of some sort of cold shot, with some snow

    Perhaps 25% of something noteworthy (Noteworthy being a Feb 2009, Jan 2010 type event)

    Less than 5% of something epic (Epic being Feb 1991, Jan 1987)

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
    47 minutes ago, The Weather Dragon said:

    The pub run gives us a slap in the face - it says 'get real' - fridays synoptics not sorted yet - never mind next week - expect a further dose of grounding tomorrow 

    Does appear that 'something' each time is  stopping cold weather heading further west. Seen it a few times this winter.

     

    Rinse repeat.png

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    NIPPY FEBRUARY 850s

    Just for a bit of fun, I thought I'd have a look into the archives to pick out some charts where we have seen some pretty low 850s over the UK during February cold spells and compare these to today's ECM12z T+240 chart.

                                                                                                                                                              2017   ????                                                

                                                                                                                                   ECM0-240.GIF

                             2009                                                          1991                                                       1986                                                       1979                                                       1963                                                        

    archives-2009-2-2-0-1.png archives-1991-2-7-0-1.png archives-1986-2-9-0-1.png archives-1979-2-15-0-1.png archives-1963-2-3-12-1.png 

                            1956                                                       1947                                                          1941                                                        1940                                                     1929          

    archives-1956-2-1-12-1.png archives-1947-2-7-0-1.png archives-1941-2-4-12-1.png archives-1940-2-13-12-1.png archives-1929-2-13-0-1.png 

                            1917                                                         1895

    archives-1917-2-1-0-1.png  archives-1895-2-7-0-1.png

    These were all events associated with continental flows with winds somewhere between south-east and north-east. There are very few examples on northerlies but one stands out - 1969:

                           1969

    archives-1969-2-9-0-1.png

    These are from my memories of famous cold spells - those that I witnessed (from 1956 onwards) and those that I read about. I only included examples where somewhere in the UK had 850s at or below -12. I have obviously missed a few, especially those that occured in otherwise mild winters. I did not include December or January events or Februaries with multiple cold pooling events (just the main one). The 1940s and 1960s had other Februarys which came very close. So these events have always been quite rare, even when Arctic sea ice was over 500 miles closer to the UK. Now, let's add another example this year!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Cracking UKMO 144 with a hint of undercut.(or at least trough disruption)

    UN144-21.GIF

     

    GFS puts the Atlantic in overdrive which means slow burner.

    gfsnh-0-144.png

     

    So a game of patience but it does build a super block

    gfsnh-0-186.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Yes - putting all those eggs in the one UKMO basket this morning !

    UKMO 144 has the -24c isotherm in central europe pushing west,..

    GFS good but needs more undercut....

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Well its only my opinion (and im getting so excited already)...

    BUT..

    UKMO is looking good at 144- its GOT to undercut at 168 SHIRLY!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, Steve Murr said:

    Yes - putting all those eggs in the one UKMO basket this morning !

    UKMO 144 has the -24c isotherm in central europe pushing west,..

    GFS good but needs more undercut....

    Steve if ECM looks like ukmo at 144 we are in, im sure of it.

    GFS is making an absolute dogs dinner of it all, stick with the slayer...:D

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Plenty of water to pass under the bridge before an Easterly can be called if GFS ensembles anything to go by,

    Anyway here is a best case/worse case comparison just to underline the uncertainty.

    gensnh-2-1-180.pnggensnh-15-1-180.png

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, Mucka said:

    Plenty of water to pass under the bridge before an Easterly can be called if GFS ensembles anything to go by,

    Anyway here is a best case/worse case comparison just to underline the uncertainty.

    gensnh-2-1-180.pnggensnh-15-1-180.png

    Its an utter junk model though mucka- stick with ukmo/ecm and you won't be far wrong...

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    Just now, northwestsnow said:

    Its an utter junk model though mucka- stick with ukmo/ecm and you won't be far wrong...

    I can't agree with that I'm afraid NWS. All the models have their faults (ECM has repeatedly trolled coldies this winter) and have been pretty poor at times. Where there are large differences a blended solution has usually been the outcome.

    What we really need is cross model consensus before having any real confidence and even then it can all go TU.

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Its an utter junk model though mucka- stick with ukmo/ecm and you won't be far wrong...

    :laugh:it's ranked third so it's not that bad! We all know how impressive the ukmo has been but I wouldn't discount the gfs just yet. 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    5 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    I can't agree with that I'm afraid NWS. All the models have their faults (ECM has repeatedly trolled coldies this winter) and have been pretty poor at times. Where there are large differences a blended solution has usually been the outcome.

    What we really need is cross model consensus before having any real confidence and even then it can all go TU.

    No probs mucka.

    Ukmo will be boss here, and i will bet my bottom dollar ecm looks similar at 144 in an hours time.

    I stand by my assertation Gfs is a pile of junk..:ninja:

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

    No probs mucka.

    Ukmo will be boss here, and i will bet my bottom dollar ecm looks similar at 144 in an hours time.

    I stand by my assertation Gfs is a pile of junk..:ninja:

    LOL Hope you're right - even if not GFS isn't a disaster.

    But, a wise man once told me, "confidence with substance is foresight, confidence without substance is blind faith." :wink:

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Pretty good agreement across all models at t144 although ecmf is 24hours older.  So plenty of model watching to come.

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    I await the ecm with extreme caution.

    Gfs has back tracked.

    however the ukmo is steady and the ecm really needs to be close to the ukmo hopefully they stay in sync with each other until Friday then I will be happy.

    Gfs does not have the split vortex like the other models it could be that we might miss out again and Europe enjoys another blast of cold.

    I'm not convinced as the Canadian lobe of vortex on the gfs just to much Atlantic energy.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    GFS hasn't backtracked at all...

    IMG_3891.PNG

     

    its still on the colder side of average. I did warn people yesterday about taking the coldest ensemble run at face value! Still good trends there, and a fair few bone chillers. Lots to play for!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    @northwestsnow ECM looking very good at 120 :good:

    ECH1-120.GIF

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    168 undercut would make for a snowy chart N and E I suspect.

    ECH1-168.GIF?01-12

     

    That pool of very cold air to the East right on target

    ECH0-168.GIF?01-12

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    Just now, Mucka said:

    168 undercut would make for a snowy chart N and E I suspect.

    ECH1-168.GIF?01-12

    Some very cold air on its way in, the low over SW England may help the cold blob come in on more of a SW direction from the Baltic Sea as it sinks away. 

    IMG_4126.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    168 undercut would make for a snowy chart N and E I suspect.

    ECH1-168.GIF?01-12

    Only gold from there surely

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    Posted
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain

    I dont like seeing the high getting fat and inclined to Eurasia, it cuts the stream of very cold aire flow, that didn't happen in yersterday runs

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Now that's a boom :bomb:

     

    ECH1-192.GIF?01-12ECH0-192.GIF?01-12

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