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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    i see to-night  if  the  gfs  is  right  deep  into  FI    the  u.k.could  get snow from feb 8  onwards  !!!  dont tell the  express!!!

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    3 minutes ago, booferking said:

    Ecm mean not to shabby @240

    EDH1-240.gif

    That's a cracking mean from ECM, best I have seen all winter.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    1 minute ago, booferking said:

    Ecm mean not to shabby @240

    EDH1-240.gif

    That is a very good mean from the ECM, looking forward to the ECM ensembles this evening.

    Once more we are getting all the right signals from the models, but can they be trusted, after all the disappointments I think I will just take one day at the time until we enter the D4/5 range, then I will get the bottle of Chamagne that I bought today from Marks's and put into the fridge ready for a celebration when the flakes start to fall. I notice that a few of us have birthdays coming up, could be a white birthday week coming up for some if we are lucky. :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    I'm not so worried about ens when the operational is not interested - you should be worried no cause for concern yet. I've not had a scan through, but I bet there are some very wintry ones. Across the board it's looking pretty damn good (minus the GEM) which has been a real scarcity. Pretty good consensus on a cold bullet to the east the orientation of the blocking which looks pretty expansive, looks set to funnel rather severe cold into Eastern Europe at least IMO. Although details are still uncertain. If it can be advected to us which is certainly possible, then this will not be any standard cold spell it'll be premium once in xx type of stuff :wink:.

    "Later in February and into March there are signs of a quieter and rather colder spell developing, but confidence remains low in the likelihood and details of this development." 

    ^ it's not as if cold signal is eluding the MetO. There's much to happy about if cold floats your boat. Understandable caution considering all that we've put through but I do not see a repeat.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Main issue preventing cold flooding in on ensembles appears to be low pressure setting up to our SW rather than south. Been there before this winter. Eventually, too much of a southerly influence gets in. For instance:

    gens-20-1-240.png

    looks good, but within a couple of days there may be too much Mediterranean air sucked in.

    Still at D10, perhaps a little early to worry about that one. But it does explain why some 850s are not as high as they could be.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Although the Op is on the cold side its supported by the control and plenty of EPS members, this is de Bilt so imagine there are many saying an Easterly is game on. This is a huge upgrade on this mornings suite but still not enough for any confidence

    IMG_4119.PNG

    I would say about 25% support for the ECM op on the long range suite as posted below by winterog79

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    pluim_06260_10D.png

    pluim_06260_15D.png

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
    1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

    At last the ECM is joining our expedition!

    We could still though do with losing that bloated troughing to the west, more sharpness increases our margin for error as that's more likely to disrupt energy se under the high.

    With the MJO on the move and increasing in amplitude and the SSW we do have at least reasons to be optimistic that the models are reacting to that and we might yet see more westwards corrections, hopefully!

     

    I'm still unconvinced as you say that energy just might help us or hinder us by God what a beautiful 240 chart but I'm still not convinced I reckon by Thursday Friday were know for sure as the lows will either stick over the uk or they might disrupt into France Spain area.

    Which of coarse the latter would be a good start.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
    7 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

    Ive seen some comments re the Ensembles :

    Heres 2 very clear obsevations relating to the ENS from 16 years of model watching

    * When a decent easterly does varify which of course is rare as hens teeth- so 2005,2009, etc - the ENS suite is ALWAYS 1 day behind the ops trend setter- to put this into context where we are now-

    yesterday 12z GFS had one sub -10 run for london now the 06z has 3 / 4

    same as ECM yesterday only having one cobra run- now the 00z has many more plus the control -

    So ensemble means charts poinless in isolation, only good if your comparing trends along a time - say GFS 00z 156 V GFS 06z 150- your looking for incremental movements of the ENS towards the Ops - its been shown time & time again this winter than at this current time in resolution accuarcy that when there os significant change - the ENS cant handle it

    As the ensembles are being posted the points Steve made earlier are coming to fruition. Ensembles coming round to the OPs

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    Hahaha. Bloody hell, here we go again then I suppose!

    Cracking ECM and to some extent GFS this morning. One of the best Scandi heights i've seen in the models for literally years.

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    Posted
  • Location: Alston, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Proper Seasons,lots of frost and snow October to April, hot summers!
  • Location: Alston, Cumbria
    4 hours ago, Weather-history said:

    To give further examples, look at the 4 winters from 1988-89 to 1991-92 in that link 

    Out of the 4 winters, which was the best winter for snowfalls and indeed coldest? The only westerly QBO out of the 4, The other 3 were mediocre to almost snowless.

     

    @Weather-history; Certainly the QBO phase is not the only factor and I do not mean to suggest that this is so. It is certainly, on the other hand, an important factor- along with the El Ninó/La Niná phase, the stage of the Solar Cycle; the period you refer to of 1988 to 1992 occurs during and just after the peak of Schwabe Cycle 22- the previous Solar Cycle but one- an active Sun with more sunspots and solar flares promotes a stronger Circumpolar Vortex in higher latitudes through interaction with Earth's magnetic field (this would also help explain some of the mild winters over Britain at that time despite easterly QBO phases). Also very relevant for NW Europe are sea-surface temperatures over the North Atlantic and the extent of Arctic ice-cover, not to mention factors such as winter snow-cover and the consequent entrenchment of frigid conditions over Eurasia and indeed North America (when these conditions encourage the expansion of the Circumpolar Vortex with the displacement of the jet-stream into lower latitudes this greatly increases the likelihood of cold weather over Britain in the winter months).

    I am confident that, over the next few winters that the trend towards a very inactive Sun, with the QBO being turning easterly and the right ENSO conditions (weak-moderate El Ninó) will help to set the scene for another major winter cold spell in Britain (by which I mean most locations dropping well below -10C and staying below freezing point for a week or more). A major volcano in the tropics over these next few years would be a Godsend in that regard because it would provide further assistance towards creating conditions for severe winter cold in western Europe: It would do this by warming the Stratosphere and cooling the low troposphere (due to dust and sulphur dioxide): That would weaken the Hadley Circulation and sharply reduce the regular production of Westerly Atmospheric Angular Momentum that ends up powering the higher-latitude Westerlies in the winter months- ergo weak Westerlies and high-latitude blocking bringing severe winter weather from Russia or the Arctic towards the UK. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

    I posted earlier about watching the ensembles further east. Now much better support for a colder outcome compared to 24 hours ago when op was a wild outlier. Fingers crossed it pushes all the way west.

    gefsens850Warsaw_Poland0 (6).png

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Looking at the wind directions on the ECM ensembles theres a strong cluster taking that towards the e/ne from around the 9th. The uncertainty might be more in relation to what kind of cold pooling develops to tap into.

    The op might look like a bit of an outlier but its not a case of the ensembles seeing a raging Atlantic and the op being in the small minority, blocking is looking likely but its the more important detail re exactly how this sets up that's the main uncertainty.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Quite alot to discuss.. in the short term, both GFS and more so ECM showing some form of trough disruption, a shearing effect, with low heights pulled SE to our SW shores, lots of rain, and mild couple of days, trending cooler through the weekend but still wet as frontal activity comes unstuck against developing heights far to our NE.

    For the first time this season, the models are showing a rapid build of heights in the Svalbard / N Russia area - and quickly ridging westwards with a trough sat underneath, ECM today is very bullish in pulling the block our way, and a 1055mb high which will easily fight off what looks like a weak ineffectual atlantic. Warm air advection through scandi helping to pump up a strong ridge to the east.

    Lets see if the trend continues, are GFS and ECM being a bit over keen.. they might back away from such rapid developments over next few runs, only to then quickly resurrect them once it becomes much clearer they will verify. 

    We are in a very different set up now compared to December, one that appears much more conducive for something significantly colder from a much more northerly sourced airstream, and perhaps much more longer lasting. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    24 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Main issue preventing cold flooding in on ensembles appears to be low pressure setting up to our SW rather than south. Been there before this winter. Eventually, too much of a southerly influence gets in. For instance:

    gens-20-1-240.png

    looks good, but within a couple of days there may be too much Mediterranean air sucked in.

    Still at D10, perhaps a little early to worry about that one. But it does explain why some 850s are not as high as they could be.

    Yes this is all important, I have posted about this a few times now, the low must move south of us, ideally setting up shop around Northern Italy/Switzerland. Too far south, or SE of us towards the Azores and our case is lost.

     

    Thanks for posting the ensembles, certainly a big improvement compared too the ECM 00z suite.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Evening All

    so a rare call of the ECM to follow the GFS  / UKMO blend has seemingly landed on the runway tonight with all 3 models on the same page evolution wise - 

    Following on from last nights post - where I was trying to highlight the importance of the cycle 1 & 2 process & the possibility of the UK just being to far west for cycle 1 seems to have gained a little clarity today- 

    Taking the big 3 into consideration sees cycle 1 leaving the UK upstream of an easterly 'waft' - think 1980s bisto advert...

    The UKMO 144 shows this very clearly with perhaps the residents of Lowestoft who have a cold persusion peering east out the window- watching & waiting-

    IMG_2218.PNG

    Even the best alligned GFS op doesnt quite get there -

    IMG_2220.PNGIMG_2221.PNG

    so T144 looks to cold but not deep cold...

    post that the 'big 3' all have cycle 2 undercutting - ive checked UKMO 168 its good to go- 

    However ECMs shape is EPIC - 

    IMG_2222.PNGIMG_2223.PNG

    so post 144 the old fashioned 'classic' southerly draw veering Easterly - spanning 2-3 days with dewpoints draining away..

    well thats the plan anyway....

    Also note the Cobra runs on the increase now in ECM ENS with Op & control in harmony-

    IMG_2217.PNG

     

    FWIW I think the longwave pattern is pretty reflective of what to expect- Scandi + Eastern Pacific High - then cycle 2 throwing a low amplitude atlantic ridge in the mix as well which angles the jet SE over the UK producing the trigger low-

    - key areas to watch for everyone over the next 24-72 hours which is mainly 2 clear things-

    * European flow allignment of the upper air cold pool- This is critical as the UK is at the end of the line with a cold pool span of about 700 miles North to south but an available target area of about 3-4 thousand miles- so changes in the angle of attack of that upper air pool has repercussions- in recent years the high has flattened slightly to quick & the cold pool has alligned more North -South heading towards Italy, or equally of the block has weaknesses on the SW flank then the cold pool moves west quickly before North west & North up through scandi curving away yet again from the UK

    so this chart- about T150 ish is crucial -

    IMG_2224.PNG

    we could do with this being alligned perfectly SW towards the UK, GFS isnt bad -we need to maintaing low heights across Southern & Eastern Europe to keep funnelling the cold west-

    * The other issue will be the trigger low, so many times in recent failures where instead of dropping SE into the near continent to support the final leg of the colds migration west- it actually heads NE & gets lodged in the SW portion of Scandi- This then blocks the retrogression of the high & it quickly sinks SE- so again GFS looks great- Notice the little kink dropping SE on cycle 2

    IMG_2225.PNG

    So there you have it- all seems great tonight but it could all go titicus verticus over the next 24-48 hours-

    T144 is the key line tonight to see everything falling into place so not total FI but far enough to have to wait till friday...

    Eyes down for the pub run....

    S

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Wellingborough

    Looking at the satellite images, looks like the west vs east battle has already begun. As some others have said , most promising charts of the season for deep cold. 

    Screenshot_2017-01-31-21-34-52.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Just to highlight the cold pooling in Eastern Europe on the ECM - this is Warsaws weather according to the ECM...Frigid.

    IMG_4122.JPG

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Strong EPS z500 mean support for Scandi high at day 10, trop PV well and truly retreated to N Canada by then

    IMG_0063.PNG

    Extended EPS z500 mean features  negative height anomaly over SW Europe and western Mediterranean and positive anomaly over Barents and Scandi  days 10-15, what could possibly go wrong? :ninja:

    IMG_0064.PNG chart courtesy of weather bell

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Will we get sucked in again? Last time, we had great ECM and GFS charts, virtual full ensemble agreement and support from anomalies - and it never happened!

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Can we do it

    can we do it on cycle 1 of the diving low...?

    IMG_2227.PNG

    S

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Looking OK at 126.  Deep cold slightly closer than vs the 12z and moving WSW

    .  gfsnh-0-126.pnggfsnh-1-126.png

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