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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

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  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    ECM at 168 looking great, much better position of the block and more akin to the others. 192 is the key frame, maybe Bluearmy will change his thinking!! Or not if 192 isn't so good but that looks primed to my very novice eyes!! Looks like the Jet is about to dig south to our SW, should aid an undercut and an Easterly.

    IMG_4113.PNG

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  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    Its getting closer, so much to be decided yet, but for me the ECM up to 168 is pretty good, even if we have to wait for the northern arm to calm a little the building blocks are there for sure

    ECMOPEU12_168_1.png

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  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    I am going to be honest, I personally think the Scandi high will verify for once this season, the problem at the moment is that the pattern is too far east.

    ECM1-168.GIF?31-0

    That said the chances of the pattern backing west are certainly possible if the Atlantic trough disrupts. So all in all a cyclonic south to south westerly is favoured but that brutal easterly is there a possibility.

    Both the ECM and UKMO bring a very cold airmass into eastern Europe at day 6, the GFS more watered down, the point being we can be a little patient with this one if the block verifies.

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  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

    ECM smells the coffee

    ECM0-192 (4).gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    3 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

    I am going to be honest, I personally think the Scandi high will verify for once this season, the problem at the moment is that the pattern is too far east.

    ECM1-168.GIF?31-0

    That said the chances of the pattern backing west are certainly possible if the Atlantic trough disrupts. So all in all a cyclonic south to south westerly is favoured but that brutal easterly is there a possibility.

    Both the ECM and UKMO bring a very cold airmass into eastern Europe at day 6, the GFS more watered down, the point being we can be a little patient with this one if the block verifies.

    I agree with that, if the block verifies and doesn't sink, then we may just have to wait a little before the cold get sent towards our shores.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    So close to being vv good,cold air still filtering in from the SE and a big strong Scandy high 

    IMG_4114.PNG

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  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    Some crazy charts being churned out by the OPs!

    Look at that cold pool!

    ECMOPEU12_192_2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    I know some complain about tweets, however thought this is relevant to potential changes that lay ahead.

    IMG_4115.PNG

    And what a beautiful Scandy high, poor Eastern Europe into the freezer once again - this time it looks more aligned to head our way.

    IMG_4116.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    The key here is the MJO which should unlock the rarely opened door to a major block moving generally west from Asia via Scandinavia.

    Good to see ECM making more of the second trough disruption. Euro low has improved in position and orientation a lot over the past day of runs.

    A trickier aspect is how much undercut happens from the east side of the block. Prior to the Nov-Dec 2010 spell, the extent of that was vastly underestimated while at more than a week's range, but the models have had a great many tweaks since then so who knows if such foibles remains.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    And - BOOOOM. What a chart, long big deep freeze if this came off. 

    IMG_4117.PNG

    IMG_4118.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Dear Exeter....

     

     

    C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_ECM1-216(1).gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
    1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

    And - BOOOOM

    IMG_4117.PNG

    I new there would be a boom very interesting times ahead and not talking cold and dry but  snow fest.:yahoo:

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    Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

    ECM are 240 hrs is simply stunning, with the Gfs and ukmo looking just as good. We are due some luck this winter that's for sure,  deep deep cold is knocking on the door again for continental Europe can we tap into it properly for the first time this winter. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire SACRA MEMBER 16/122
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire SACRA MEMBER 16/122

    -13 uppers just across the Channel at T240

    C.S. 

    Edit imagine if it were a mild outlier LOL:rofl:

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    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

    I posted GFS P7 earlier as a bit of a joke and then the ECM says hang on I'm serious!!!

    Not exact but you get the idea. :cold::cold::cold:

    7.pngECH1-240.GIF.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Whitby north yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold , snow . Hot sunny
  • Location: Whitby north yorkshire

    Great charts , fingers crossed this easterly can get into the 96hr time frame . Fingers crossed :yahoo:

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    At last the ECM is joining our expedition!

    We could still though do with losing that bloated troughing to the west, more sharpness increases our margin for error as that's more likely to disrupt energy se under the high.

    With the MJO on the move and increasing in amplitude and the SSW we do have at least reasons to be optimistic that the models are reacting to that and we might yet see more westwards corrections, hopefully!

     

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