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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    This cold pool looks excessive!! GFS probably overdoing things, but all part of the models finding the correct pattern, and if the GFS 12z has it right ill eat my hat!

    GFSOPEU12_240_2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    UN144-21.GIF?31-17

    Probably one of the best charts this winter in terms of HLB. UKMO is a beauty but the deep low is a little too deep very hard to raging westerlies from it but may be a little while before any cold moves in.

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    12 minutes ago, IDO said:

    I was just pointing out the UK perspective, and of course your location the Europe picture is more interesting, as it really does not have much interest if Poland is snowed in and the UK is in a westerly flow; the same for the US going into the freezer when  the forecast was much milder! For my location the block being more persuasive has made little difference as to surface conditions, that being my point. I have no interest in that block bringing a continental flow for the last remnants of the winter as I want snow rather than cold.

    The GEM moving from one cluster to another:

    0zgem-0-162.png  12zgem-0-156.png

    Which is my point re the models clueless at the moment. Expect changes run to run, cross and inter model.

    And again you're completely missing the point of my post as you did with TEITS post. You deliberately misinterpreted his post and you are deliberately misinterpreting mine, I made no reference to interest in my location or your location or the US. I'm not sure what your point is other than being deliberately contrary, The fact is that TEITS was correct in pointing out Atlantic low pressure is not going as far into Europe as forecast and that this pattern has happened before this winter. I'm not sure why you keep trying to go off on tangents. TEITS made a valid point, you didn't understand what he said. Simples, as the Meerkat says. 

    And if you have a look at the current run it even shows a little snow for you!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset

    A little chilly next Saturday....:cold:

     

    Brrr.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
    13 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    gfs-0-144.png?12GFS

    UW144-21.GIF?31-17UKMO Colder in Europe

    Ukmo is much quicker than gfs to I like it alot.

    But still skeptical until the ecm is on board at 144 hrs

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    I find the gem solution more plausible than the gfs 

    don't expect to get too many likes for it but that's where the modelling is currently headed - fi ops will lead us a merry dance. 

    Unless the ecm has a flip in 90mins then I don't expect my stance to change 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    I find the gem solution more plausible than the gfs 

    don't expect to get too many likes for it but that's where the modelling is currently headed - fi ops will lead us a merry dance. 

    Unless the ecm has a flip in 90mins then I don't expect my stance to change 

    The GFS op is a little isolated within its ENS so this is probably not a good thing. Over to the ECM 

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    3 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

    Ukmo is much quicker than gfs to I like it alot.

    But still skeptical until the ecm is on board at 144 hrs

    Im thinking we have quite a few ships we could possibly board, so to speak, and as yet no model has a clear direction with regards to this Arctic/Scandi high and where things will ultimately end up.

    Just look at the differences in how the three models handle the high out east at 144

    GFS

    GFSOPEU12_144_1.png

    UKMO

    UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

    GEM

    GEMOPEU12_144_1.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    I find the gem solution more plausible than the gfs 

    don't expect to get too many likes for it but that's where the modelling is currently headed - fi ops will lead us a merry dance. 

    Unless the ecm has a flip in 90mins then I don't expect my stance to change 

    What about the UKMO, blue.. I've been very impressed by it of late and it's pattern at 144hr matches closer to the GFS than the GEM?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    I find the gem solution more plausible than the gfs 

    don't expect to get too many likes for it but that's where the modelling is currently headed - fi ops will lead us a merry dance. 

    Unless the ecm has a flip in 90mins then I don't expect my stance to change 

    I agree, even worse though the strat vortex has returned to the pole and the wave doesn't break high, that's probably why in deep FI the trop PV is once again revving up with LP to the NW.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    I agree, even worse though the strat vortex has returned to the pole and the wave doesn't break high, that's probably why in deep FI the trop PV is once again revving up with LP to the NW.

    This Artic/Scandi high has appeared from nowhere and has no relation to the SSW thats happening at 10hpa in the coming days. So for me at least the lower strat pattern is being troph led and the warming at 1hpa is yet to effect the troph. I'd put the deep FI  troph PV revving up down to climatology rather than any link to the Strat!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    252, lucky number on 12Z, shame though as it's first chart of low res

    h850t850eu.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, chris55 said:

    This Artic/Scandi high has appeared from nowhere and has no relation to the near reversal that's happening right at the top now. So for me at least the lower strat pattern is being troph led and the warming at 1hpa is yet to effect the troph. I'd put the deep FI  troph PV revving up down to climatology rather then any link to the Strat!

    But I think if the split we had the other day (yesterday 6z I think) would occur (also trop led), that went right to the top of the strat nearly, to me we would have a longer blocked pattern therefore more time for the block to orientate to advect cold uppers to us, I'm saying the first few attempts are likely to be fails, so we want to give us further chances down the line.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    GEFS are reasonably good, cant picture them being a massive upgrade in graph form (a few more maybe flatlining??) but more blocked definitely.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    16 minutes ago, The Weather Dragon said:

    Think that we are going COL here tbh

    No blocking over greenland - no severe spell

    Canadian PV to strong

    This is going to let you down - BIG time !

    Blocking over Greenland?? Well of course there is no blocking over Greenland, the charts are clear on that!

    There is however a big block developing over norther Scandinavia and its something we should watch with interest, if we can achieve the correct orientation it has the ability to deliver some colder conditions to the UK. Nothing is clear at the moment and the ensembles are not supporting the cold advecting to our shores at present, so nothing is nailed down.

    In summary no let down "big time" (how dramatic"!) just a case of watching and enjoying the output. If the cold ends up missing us, so what!

    EDIT

    and just for reference you do not need a greenland block to develop a colder pattern for the UK

    NOAA_1_1991020300_1.gif

       

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    I will take a number 4 please.

    gensnh-4-0-348_ecz2.png 

    As good a chart as Jan 1987,

    gensnh-4-1-348_upi9.png

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    Blocking over Greenland?? Well of course there is no blocking over Greenland, the charts are clear on that!

    There is however a big block developing over norther Scandinavia and its something we should watch with interest, if we can achieve the correct orientation it has the ability to deliver some colder conditions to the UK. Nothing is clear at the moment and the ensembles are not supporting the cold advecting to our shores at present, so nothing is nailed down.

    In summary no let down "big time" (how dramatic"!) just a case of watching and enjoying the output. If the cold ends up missing us, so what!

     

       

    Someone mention blocks over greenland anything could happen fl is as early as this weekend.

    gensnh-5-1-384.png

    gensnh-1-1-384.png

    gensnh-9-1-312.png

    gensnh-11-1-384.png

    gensnh-13-1-384.png

    gensnh-20-1-312.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    4 minutes ago, booferking said:

    Someone mention blocks over greenland anything could happen fl is as early as this weekend.

     

    One step at a time eh boofer! :) 

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    Posted
  • Location: UK/ EU resident in Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal
  • Location: UK/ EU resident in Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal
    On ‎29‎/‎01‎/‎2017 at 12:47, Tamara said:

    Taking into account response timelines to -ve mountain torque this advertises an upstream amplification over the Pacific to occur around the 6 day period which will have downstream ramifications in terms of retracting the Azores High westwards and taking the Jetstream southwards across the Atlantic as fuelled by the displaced Canadian lobe of polar vortex

    Upstream amplification in the Pacific. Yep:)

    On ‎29‎/‎01‎/‎2017 at 12:47, Tamara said:

    However, the upstream jet, is set to decelerate rapidly as pressure rises over the Pacific and re-build the Aleutian Ridge.  In the Atlantic sector, the retrogression of the pattern will tend to angle the Jetstream more NW/SE and, conceivably, enable build of pressure over Scandinavia

    Pressure build over Scandinavia. Yep:)

    On ‎29‎/‎01‎/‎2017 at 12:47, Tamara said:

    Meanwhile, with (hopefully) a split enabled in the vortex

    Split vortex assisted by Wave 2 action Yep:)

    On ‎29‎/‎01‎/‎2017 at 12:47, Tamara said:

    With time, as the disrupting trough gets separated from the Canadian lobe of vortex, downstream amplification from the Pacific sector becomes possible

    Downstream amplification? Yep - just coming into day 10 period:)

    On ‎29‎/‎01‎/‎2017 at 12:47, Tamara said:

    the chances of the jet crossing through the northern arm with spoiling energy to inhibit amplification are reduced (also assisted by tropical signal progressing through Phases 7/8 which would teleconnect to an increasing -NAO signal and help back cold air advection west)

    So we move onto the next part of the jigsaw. The eastward propagating tropical signal has been well documented by others today. With the downstream amplification signal becoming increasingly advertised within NWP suites from the day 10 period then we have the double lock scenario that has been AWOL so far this winter in terms of potential ambush from both NE and NW vectors. The amplification key in drawing cold air advection westwards and leading to the prize in the extended period

    2 hours ago, Seasonality said:

    IDO said:

    The GEM moving from one cluster to another:

    0zgem-0-162.png  12zgem-0-156.png

    Which is my point re the models clueless at the moment. Expect changes run to run, cross and inter model.

    Yes indeed obviously expect changes in face value intra suite operational detail - but that applies whatever the synoptics

    However the models are far from clueless. They are reading the script perfectly - see above :)

    What is key is that the downstream amplification posse is clearly coming over the hill at day 10 into complete model ensemble suites. Look at the wider hemispheric model plots and see the retracted Atlantic ridge providing the ambush of the troughing from the west to squeeze the vorticity energy out, while the continental influence bumps it from the east.

    The intra model operational details do not matter a jot at this stage within that time as long as the polar field and NE Europe is modelled the way it is. The jet deceleration downstream will take care of itself as the amplification comes closer into model radar. Then, just perhaps, we can start to think about the prize

    So far, so very very good :)

    Edit: Thanks Mr ECM !

    The pincer ambush of the Atlantic energy c/o expected downstream amplification perfectly illustrated by 12z ECM - which allows a glimpse of the prize as the deep cold is then backed westwards...

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
    14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    I will take a number 4 please.

    gensnh-4-0-348_ecz2.png 

    As good a chart as Jan 1987,

    gensnh-4-1-348_upi9.png

     

     

    P7 ain't bad either...

    7.png7a.pngindex.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    ECM op with that mega cold pool on a decent trajectory!

    ECMOPEU12_144_2.png

    Comparing it with the UKMO at the same time id say the ECM is better with the Atlantic low a lot weaker!

    ECMOPEU12_144_1.png

    UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

     

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