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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    18 minutes ago, jvenge said:

    A picture tells a story. All of Europe going mild, if the GEFS are to be believed. 

    gefs_t2anom_16_eur_1 (9).png

     

    I'm watching the T144 period at the moment, as the ensembles differ notably in specifics, even if not overall shape, then and I'm curious to see what the longer term message is once they have cleared it up.

     

    Except Moldova oddly enough.

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    Knee-jerk, a joke!?...if that is what you believe then simply don't follow. I was simply highlighting what the EC ENS are showing and to be honest certain people need to read before commentating, perh

    Yes, I recognise these sage pieces of sentiment so well. The signals are always wrong, and the professionals (and others) who try to present and explain them, when an operational appears to take away

    This is an unusual set up for the UK, hence the model variations. The bigger picture according to seriously knowledgeable people like @Tamara tends to suggest that the hemispheric factors that actuall

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

    Despite the trend from the GEM, GFS, GEFS, ECM im not convinced with the handling of the low pressure you see at +120 off the coast of Portugal. The UKMO differs with regards to this and in my opinion could possibly move on to show a GH if we got to see the later frames.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    16 minutes ago, booferking said:

    Yep thats the big thaw going by them charts for europe not so much for uk as there is nothing to thaw.:rofl:

    Some parts could get an inch or so, double that on hills which is better than nothing..I consider this a bonus. We were never looking at a repeat of Jan 1987 after all:)

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    DAILY EUROPEAN TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE CHECK No. 6  

    THE COLD POOL MOVES EVEN CLOSER

    In the build up to our cold spell, I feel that it will be useful to keep up-to-date with the current and trending temperature and pressure changes in Europe. I will try to produce these on a daily basis for the next few days around 0730 (although I am away on a business trip this Friday so no update then and Saturday’s will be around 1300). This will show how the pattern is evolving and allow us to monitor the extent and the severity of the cold that we might expect.

    Now, I shall pick up from my last “check” on page 132. This took us to February 7th.

    European Surface Temperature Charts:

                     Current "live"                                   Feb 8th 0650                                    Feb 7th    1250                                   Feb 7th  0650                                  Feb 6th 1250

    temp_eur2.png  temp_eur2-06.png  temp_eur2-12.png  temp_eur2-06.png  temp_eur2-12.png

    Note that it is important to allow for min/max temps when comparing the charts. The 0650s are usually close to the minimums and the 1250s are usually close to maximums.

    COMMENT:  The pool of "deep" cold only changed slightly during the last 24 hours. The sub -20c temps (purple) has moved slightly southwards and slightly westwards. Scandinavia has become considerably colder with purple colours appearing there. Some of the purple colours just to the east of Scandinavia and on the north-west Russian coast have been replaced by the black sub -12c temps. This slight warming is simply due to the airflow there coming off the sea around the top of the HP.   The better news is that the pool of sub -12c temps has moved westwards through eastern Europe and now across central Europe too. The area of sub -8c temps (dark blue) and sub -4c temps (mid blue) ahead of this have also moved westward. All this can be seen by comparing the two "0650" and the two "1250" charts.

    GFS  0z February 8th T+6 European Charts: 

                    2m Surface Temps                                       850 Temps                                          500 hPa Temps

        gfseu-9-6.png         gfseu-1-6.png        gfseu-13-6.png   

    COMMENT:   Compare today's charts (above) with yesterday's  (below).  Note the further expansion of the "purple shades" area of sub -20c surface temps with a similar area of sub -24c temps and a wider area of sub -28c temps (pink) and sub -32c temps (light grey) in the north-east of the block. I estimate that the whole purple area in around 300 miles further south but only marginally further west. Scandinavia has cooled down with an expansion of sub -20c temps there. The sub -8c temps (dark blue) have reached central Europe and sub -4c temps (mid blue) have progressed further south-west ahead of this.

    Overall the huge pool of 850s with sub -8c temps has expanded but the area of deeper cold has changed little. The pool of sub -20c 850s has, perhaps expanded very slightly but only in the far north-east. The region of -12c temps is slightly smaller in the main pool. There is still the area of breakaway sub -12c temps (with a centre of sub -16c temps over Sweden)  which has continued to move slowly westwards and has now reach the North Sea. The sub -8c temps have now extended to eastern UK and the -4c temps now cover most of the country with the greens (over 0c) now far to our south.

    GFS 0z February 7th T+6 European Charts: 

                    2m Surface Temps                                        850 Temps                                          500 hPa Temps

       gfseu-9-6.png        gfseu-1-6.png      gfseu-13-6.png 

    European Surface Pressure Charts:

                    Current "live”                                   Feb 8th 0650                                    Feb 7th    1850                                  Feb 7th  0650                                 Feb 6th    1850   

    pression2_eur2.png  pression2_eur2-06.png  pression2_eur2-18.png  pression2_eur2-06.png  pression2_eur2-18.png                              

    Current Met Office Fax: 0600 Feb 8th             GFS 0z February 8th T+6                       GFS 0z February 7th T+6     

       20170208.0658.PPVA89.png         gfseu-0-6.png        gfseu-0-6.png                             

    COMMENT:  The good news is that the Scandinavian HP has moved very little in the last 24 hours just edging slightly north-westwards and it is now centred over east Sweden. It has continued to slowly but steadily intensify. The pressure reached 1051 mb overnight but the highest reading in central Sweden is now (at 0650) 1054 mb. Yesterday, I estimated that it would end up with a central pressure of 1055 mb later today and it is on course for at least that. The models are still playing catch up with this and under estimating the strength of the HP. It is slightly further north-west than most of the models have indicated - this is good news. There is no powerful Jet Stream to shift it away quickly. I feel that it will more or less maintain its position for longer than currently indicated (see next paragraph). The slightly less good news is that the HP still has a ridge to the south-east. This means that the very cold surface air has a longer path to drift around the southern flank. As the HP is still building in the north-west it may lose that south-east ridge which would then open the floodgates to a more direct flow. So minor changes might make quite a difference. Another bit of good news is that the lower heights to the south has expanded. There is now a broad band of LPs stretching across most of the Mediterranean. Significantly, pressure has been falling over the Black Sea. The pattern of LPs looks very conducive for propping up the HP, should somewhat strengthen the air stream in between and as the bulge of LP currently towards south-east England moves south we may yet develop a more direct easterly than has been indicated. The next 24 hours will be very interesting.

    Looking ahead into week 2, the HP is predicted to sink southwards. @Nouska made a good point last night on the "quiet" thread, that the main reason for its southward movement will probably be due to the PV shifting east towards Siberia next week. The lower heights from the north would do this and this would be good news in due course with HLB building towards Greenland and lower heights into Scandinavia as the pattern transition to phase 2 of the cold spell gets underway. (EDIT: this HLB later on in week 2 was reflected in the strongly negative -AO ensembles yesterday but remember this is based on the GFS model output and will fluctuate until it and other models start to build in the very favourable background signals much more consistently). Several models did indicate this but several others sink the HP without any eastward shift in the PV. This would seem to be illogical. I believe the HP will be very resilient and will only give way when (and if) the PV movement gets well underway - so perhaps rather later into next week.

    Overall, more progress but at a slower pace.

    ADDITIONAL COMMENT: 

    I have just had a chance to look more closely at the 0z model output. This is so illogical, that I cannot accept it. I have banged on about the Euro cold block for over 6 weeks now. The models have been dreadful in factoring in the persistence of this block even when we had a powerful Jet Stream. By this weekend, the block will be further west, much more extensive and more intense than it has been at any time this winter. It will take a great deal to shift it. The Atlantic is extremely weak. The favourable background signals will be the powerful driving forces during the next few weeks. The latter part of the strat warming impacts, probably the PV migrating to Siberia (rather than a split vortex) and the MJO set to be in its most favourable phases and strongest amplitude since March 2013. At worst we will see a less cold (possibly slightly milder in the UK) interlude during the transition but not for "all" of Europe. Finally,, south-south-easterly winds will NOT be mild - read my post last night on this. The models almost always under estimate surface temperatures under slack or quite high pressure following a cold spell. Show me a powerful Jet Stream firing directly towards us and I'll back down on my strong opinion!

    Edited by Guest
    Correcting typos and to ensure that all the links and charts work properly.
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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Is the sinking of the brief Scandi High not a response to the MJO though? As it moves towards phase 8 we would expect lower heights over Scandinavia and higher heights over Greenland.

    The question is whether we can actually get proper heights to the North West.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    Facing up to facts here....the winter has marked close to 1 in the potential/disappointment factor.  It just seems to have been one of those where everything that could have developed from a promising situation consistently didn't. 

    I had hopes that the spell of successive frosts in January we saw would not be the highlight of the winter. I have suspicions now, in spite of the next few days, that it might turn out to be.

    The potential for a Greenland high is there but tbh more model runs have not shown it than have done....and I know that's no guarantee we won't get it, but I expect the consistent pattern of potential disappearing before fulfilling to prevail.

    But regardless...some fantastic analysis on here  and fascinating model watching has in many ways made it a memorable winter!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, wind and summer storms
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan

    As much as the ECM has been meligned this winter (or certainly in the run up to this cold spell), you cannot deny its output 168h plus being fairly close to the mark for next week and certainly sniffing out the sinking high and mild SSE winds that come with it. In fact the GFS also was sniffing around this idea. 

    If you look generally at the models out to 144h (as that is the far reach of the UKMO) we will see that MOST of the output has been fairly consistent, even the verification stats back this up to a degree. 

    I have said before and I will say it again. Anything beyond 120-140h is purely to see trends emerging ESP in a situation that is not default (i.e. West to east/zonal)

    Of course this MO discussion thread would be totally pointless and a potential bore fest if we were discussing weather that had a 90% chance of verifying (broad Synoptics) within that 120-140h timescale. 

    Some of the comments on this thread beggar belief. Almost as if the models are determining our weather! Lol

    This winter here in the South Wales Valleys has been very dry (in the main), calm, more frosts than the last 3 winters put together and with 2-4 snowfalls (albeit above around 200m)

    Its been a very untypical winter here and for me it's felt a little like those of yesteryear following an incredibly quiet, dry and calm autumn that actually saw our heaviest snowfall since 2013. 

    So lets enjoy the next 5 days and I prey that those of you that crave snow, see some at least falling. It doesn't matter how old you are (I'm 43), it never loses its magic and I still believe that we will see another bite of the cherry later this month and into March that will quench everyone's love for the white stuff 

    On a side note a HUGE thanks to BB1962-1963, Steve Murr, Blue Army, Tamara, Nick Sussex and others that make this forum such an interesting place for weather fanatics like me! 

    James 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Petherton 41 metres (134 feet)
  • Location: South Petherton 41 metres (134 feet)

    Most of the models show less cold air next week but it's past the 5 day timeframe and a cold reload is likely at some stage with the blocking to our north east and west . 

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    4 minutes ago, shane303 said:

    Most of the models show less cold air next week

    Less cold? I would call 12-13c very mild IF the Gfs is correct. 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Petherton 41 metres (134 feet)
  • Location: South Petherton 41 metres (134 feet)
    1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

    Less cold? I would call 12-13c very mild IF the Gfs is correct. 

    But it's still past the 5 day time range anything can happen with the models as they always do 

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    1 minute ago, shane303 said:

    But it's still past the 5 day time range anything can happen with the models as they always do 

    That's why I said IF the Gfs is correct:)

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    Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

    I can't for the life of me see how this block will just sink away so easily as shown, they are known for being a lot more robust than currently shown so I'd expect things to change and I'm sure things won't pan out come next week how they are currently shown. Come Saturday let's see where the models lie for next week then not at this long range.think I got there in the end lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Still some of the more knowledgeable going against the nights runs, I'm hoping they're right.  If the models are lagging beyond MJO/STRAT changes then I expect to see some significant upgrades today or tomorrow, if not then I don't think the effects of the MJO/STRAT are going to be as good as many hoped for late Feb - March may be a diff story but I won't go into the winter synoptics will it/won't it be cold enough argument.  It's all about Feb last chance saloon for many low lying locations so I have my fingers crossed.  

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    At D7 this morning we have ECM going for more of a south westerly

    ecm2.2017021500_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.6b2159f37db75c5a3070974a931e35cf.png

    UKMO and GFS are a bit more southeasterly

    gfs2.2017021500_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.0f442336d677e19ea2584bc3b08adc6d.pngukm2.2017021500_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.dd2ed17f025a2e2d73a5175d8206a3c4.png

     

     

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    At D7 this morning we have ECM going for more of a south westerly

    ecm2.2017021500_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.6b2159f37db75c5a3070974a931e35cf.png

    UKMO and GFS are a bit more southeasterly

    gfs2.2017021500_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.0f442336d677e19ea2584bc3b08adc6d.pngukm2.2017021500_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.dd2ed17f025a2e2d73a5175d8206a3c4.png

     

     

    Indeed Gavin, there is no point sticking our heads in the sand and pretending next week looks cold because it clearly doesn't, however, like all coldies I'm hoping this is just a wobble and that Bring Back 1962-63 is right..top poster!

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    A quick look at the ECM ens obviously shows it becoming less cold fairly early next week as we know by now

    15th onwards the Op is clearly on the warm side of the mean it get's to around +7 whilst the mean slowly heads back down to 0 which could indicate something cooler / colder again say W/C 20th

    graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.896b634dc8cc9aff45d9940977bc2c74.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers. cold snowy winters
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl

    The forum is back! Alas I was without the miserable posts for an hour. It was nice! Mind you some of the more excitable posters have reason I guess. Looking at this chart... is winter over? No still got 3 weeks yet!

     

    gfs-0-192.png?6

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Similar to the 00z with best snow chance for many on Sat, can't post pictures but is that a Thames streamer at T96!!

    This was wrote earlier on, FI looks better than the 00Z with som extremely cold air to our NE - now can we tap into it

    Edited by Ali1977
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    It might only be a cold blip  but some might see a bit of Snow  even for our friends in the south east

    90-574UK.gif

    96-574UK.gif

    Edited by weirpig
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    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

    My round up of where we are.

    Today until Sunday a deepish cold spell with 850's of -5/-11 is a fairly deep spell albeit 5 days long with snow showers for some perhaps significant snow for the North York moors/dales at times. 

    Sunday-Wed milder users but feeling raw in asoutheast wind and low dew points.

    After that I'm sorry I just don't buy or agree with mild southerlies dominating, the models are in complete limbo and haven't got a clue of what to do, granted the mjo signal isn't been picked up at the minute, I'm not sure why, because it's a more amplified mjo for many months, perhaps it's a lag, also the strat warming should at least propergate down more than is been shown at the min, this easterly is trop led in my opinion not strat led.

    I think once we have this wkend out the way we all should see a clearer more definitive path of where we're heading.

    Edited by Severe Siberian icy blast
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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
    7 minutes ago, Lamposangel delightcher said:

    Thames streamer on the gfs 6z for sat :yahoo:

    No is the simple answer.

    The main focus of shower activity is from Lincs northwards. Further SE just a few flurries.

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    Pattern of the entire winter, models show promise, everyone gets over excited, cold spell vanishes or tuns into a two day wonder, then models show promise, everyone gets over excited and so on and so on. It was always going to be one of those winters because this failed cold spell pattern established itself early on. Look for repeating patterns rather than taking 'epic' model runs literally.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    GFS again shows things gradually turning milder next week the further north you are the longer it takes

    ukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.png

    ukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.png

    ukmaxtemp.png

    Edited by Summer Sun
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