Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
    3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    When someone tweets 42 unsettled and milder most people assume that's the Atlantic roaring in and you can't have that with that mean. I stand by comments these types of tweets do nothing for this thread. If Matt wants to put more detail at least giving an overall view fine but if we saw the full 51 members I can guarantee you there won't be 42 members with no pressure rising over Greenland and that's what people may have taken from that tweet.

    Funny enough I took that tweet as meaning that 42 members were milder and more unsettled than the Greenland Block scenario that Matt favours after day 10. He didn't say that they were mild and the Atlantic is roaring in so I don't know why you would think he means that, Nick - especially as you have seen the mean at day 10?

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 3.8k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Knee-jerk, a joke!?...if that is what you believe then simply don't follow. I was simply highlighting what the EC ENS are showing and to be honest certain people need to read before commentating, perh

    Yes, I recognise these sage pieces of sentiment so well. The signals are always wrong, and the professionals (and others) who try to present and explain them, when an operational appears to take away

    This is an unusual set up for the UK, hence the model variations. The bigger picture according to seriously knowledgeable people like @Tamara tends to suggest that the hemispheric factors that actuall

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

    Funny enough I took that tweet as meaning that 42 members were milder and more unsettled than the Greenland Block scenario that Matt favours after day 10. He didn't say that they were mild and the Atlantic is roaring in so I don't know why you would think he means that, Nick - especially as you have seen the mean at day 10?

    I cannot fathom how there was any ambiguity at all seeing as the GEFS are freely available and can be used to cross check. Plenty of members in those where Greenland heights never fully establish.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    pluim_06260_15D.png

    pluim_06260_10D.png

    Some one will tell me the OP or Control are not on the mild side

    Edited by winterof79
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    Evening All ,,,,The cold is coming  in at t+120 Look Out:yahoo:589a394ab251c_bigdaddy.thumb.png.1f9d4d2f56a038aa33414ca184f555a6.png

    chocolate-teapot1.jpg

    big daddyx.png

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Forget March. This week is cold from Thursday

    170207_1200_60.png

    170207_1200_102.png

     

    170207_1200_132.png

     

     

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
    1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

    Chaps. A tweet is by definition short. Hard to put much fine grain detail in a tweet. As some of us have pointed out @MattHugo tweets what the latest output is showing. He does it accurately and succinctly so it makes an excellent snapshot for those who maybe don't want to scroll through lots of pages on a forum. For greater detail beyond the latest output we have Matt's informative blogs. We're very lucky indeed to have input from Met Office pros, one of the best meteorological bodies in the world. Keep it up Matt, your contribution is highly valued.

    I also like the tweets, as means are pointless without knowing how it got there, but it's really tricky to compress all you want to say in the character limit and reflect the output changing run to run as well. Add in the emotional wrecks here as well and it's messy :-)

    Re the GEFS, there are some saying it still showed surface cold after the upcoming spell passes. Really doesn't. Average, to slightly above or below. No blow torch either, though. Worth pointing out here every so often, especially to casual observers, but the colours on the Z500 don't always mean cold or warm, there is more to it.

     

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    I foresee light flurries for some eastern (mostly north-eastern) areas on Thursday and then snow showers pepping up on Friday, giving a dusting in many inland parts of eastern Scotland and north-east England (and locally a few centimetres, in areas that end up under a train of showers).  Saturday morning is probably the main window of opportunity for most areas, before it turns less cold and sleety with a general thaw.

    The following charts indicate that Friday looks set to have snow to all levels in areas that catch showers, with maximum temperatures between 2 and 4C (maxima of 2C look set to be pretty widespread) and dewpoints down at -2 to -4.  While Saturday's maximum temperatures only look a little higher, dewpoints are forecast to rise above freezing in the east which is where I'm getting my prediction of sleet from.

    https://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20170207;time=12;ext=72;file=ukgrndtemp;sess=d9dcfe32236a469badb635fd9c033ef0;

    https://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20170207;time=12;ext=72;file=ukdew;sess=d9dcfe32236a469badb635fd9c033ef0;

    https://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20170207;time=12;ext=96;file=ukgrndtemp;sess=d9dcfe32236a469badb635fd9c033ef0;

    https://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20170207;time=12;ext=96;file=ukdew;sess=d9dcfe32236a469badb635fd9c033ef0;

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
    8 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

    GFS 06z (P) at 384 hours just to lighten the mood.:)

    gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.a6ee0148de66d8d84f1ec797aa31a5ed.png

     

    Perfect! A chart that shouts snow and very cold. Looks like one from the famous cold months of the past.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    13 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

    GFS 06z (P) at 384 hours just to lighten the mood.:)

    gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.a6ee0148de66d8d84f1ec797aa31a5ed.png

     

    Tamara drew that bad boy :wink:

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    Quite disappointed with some of the stuff I'm reading on here tonight. Anyway several stations around 63N 20E just a smidgen below 1050 mbar now. 

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

     

    Too soon because the ecm ensembles say so? The same ensembles that have been so fickle for the last couple of months?

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    All the models are fairly close tonight GFS & GEM Op's are on the warm side from the 13th to 15th but no major disagreements

    12zt850.thumb.png.0c11f6631d560ca3fa812bf223c7fef2.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    13 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    Too soon because the ecm ensembles say so? The same ensembles that have been so fickle for the last couple of months?

    Or too soon because most outputs don't seem to suggest retrogression and its too far out to be certain! I get the feeling from some people that they are looking at all these fancy background signals which may help with HLB therefore basically saying just back and relax, the blocking will come.

    We should know the weather doesn't always work out like that and as Crewecold pointed out, there was loads of hype in here about December's prospects because of these background signals and we all know how that turned out! At the moment, I see very little evidence of any retrogression to Greenland and I'm always skeptical about Greenland highs because the models could well indicate one could arrive but shortwaves tend to scupper them nearer the short term so we always end up with the half hearted attempt.

    What I do see in the output is a blocked outlook, none of the models are suggesting any Atlantic based weather for a while yet but unfortunately the block is going to set up which will deliver more in the way of milder air, at least for the timebeing.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)

    Well i took off a week looking at models and just relied on bbc forecasts until i decided to dip in the MOD thread yesterday.Fair to say quite a bit going on and quite a bit of unsavoury stuff on here in last 24 hours which is disappointing tbh. There are so many good views on here from many members(they know who they are) which makes it even more strange when on one particular run a comment sparks all sorts of nonsense. I have been part of this great forum for 6 years now and am a self confessed coldie but realise you have to be realistic when it comes to snow in the UK.We are not a Sweden,Germany or Poland and dont get the cold that these countries get along with the snow that comes with the cold. If we come to terms with that we start off at a better starting point .Enough said i think.

    Onto the Models and we are in for quite a potent cold snap/spell for the UK with daytime maxs only a couple degrees above zero Thurs-Sat with the Possibility of snow showers(not likely to be too heavy but enough for a covering in some places).Thereafter i think we will have a fairly settled but chilly week next week with some frost at night and sunny days that will probably take us till around 16th-17th Feb.Day time highs will be i would say between 4 up North and upto 8/9 in the South.Then we may have a GH that could produce a possible last hurrah for winter but it is too early to say as that in Weather terms is a long long way off lol!!.

    Just enjoy what happens from tomorrow night,you may be pleasantly surprised as we all know how hard it is to predict snow in the UK!!

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
    1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

     

    Bit like the 51 that were going for cold the other week eh?? Hmm

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    God bless the 18z, it can even go off on one in the short term lol. Or is it onto something? :)

    Edited by blizzard81
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    58 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Last week ( & @bluearmy) will back me up

    I posted the ECM ENS suite which had just 1 member from 51 showing an easterly - I called it the cobra run - that has now verified...

    iI will be posting up some info this eve around 1030 that should make some interesting viewing....

    S

    I remember it well steve - though it was a tad colder than we will actually see verify. 

    It is my main gripe with the eps that they generally fit the op theme. 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    1 minute ago, A Frayed Knot said:

    hugo.JPG

    Now that's a good tweet:drinks:

    Well the cold is incoming, there could be wet snow in parts of the s / se tomorrow and then it turns even colder for thurs / fri and stays cold over the weekend with further snow showers..winter bites back!

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    God bless the 18z, it can even go off on one in the short term lol. Or is it onto something? :)

    I think its playing catch up with the ECM. Colder run than the 12z.

    gfs-1-132.png

    ECM0-144.GIF

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    52 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

    I foresee light flurries for some eastern (mostly north-eastern) areas on Thursday and then snow showers pepping up on Friday, giving a dusting in many inland parts of eastern Scotland and north-east England (and locally a few centimetres, in areas that end up under a train of showers).  Saturday morning is probably the main window of opportunity for most areas, before it turns less cold and sleety with a general thaw.

    The following charts indicate that Friday looks set to have snow to all levels in areas that catch showers, with maximum temperatures between 2 and 4C (maxima of 2C look set to be pretty widespread) and dewpoints down at -2 to -4.  While Saturday's maximum temperatures only look a little higher, dewpoints are forecast to rise above freezing in the east which is where I'm getting my prediction of sleet from.

    https://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20170207;time=12;ext=72;file=ukgrndtemp;sess=d9dcfe32236a469badb635fd9c033ef0;

    https://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20170207;time=12;ext=72;file=ukdew;sess=d9dcfe32236a469badb635fd9c033ef0;

    https://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20170207;time=12;ext=96;file=ukgrndtemp;sess=d9dcfe32236a469badb635fd9c033ef0;

    https://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20170207;time=12;ext=96;file=ukdew;sess=d9dcfe32236a469badb635fd9c033ef0;

    Dew points are higher on Saturday because of precipitation. Think back to Feb 05 and 06 and 09 when the fronts came from the east (clearly this is less organised) and we'll probably see similar. The east and south east struggled while inland we were fine. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells
  • Location: Cirencester

    Yes good call SteveM, clocked that post (my god you do stick your neck out sometimes! Why not though hey..). Interesting to see if the block modifies those warmer 850s as they come in to range - ensembles run on the same but simpler dna so even when unanimous they're not necessarily real odds. 

    Interesting times! 

    :) Samos

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...