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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Norwich, Norfolk
  • Location: Nr Norwich, Norfolk

    This is an unusual set up for the UK, hence the model variations. The bigger picture according to seriously knowledgeable people like @Tamara tends to suggest that the hemispheric factors that actually drive our weather are in our favour for upcoming 'winter weather' and I for one would trust this rather than six hourly computer predictions that will inevitably try to revert to the climatalogical norm. There are some great members like @Steve Murr, @nick sussex on here that aim to give us viable options as to what may happen based on each run but unfortunately there are others that just wish to hear their own voice and take pleasure in finding opportunities to disappoint the majority. It is going to get cold, it might snow, its still winter, enjoy!

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants
    6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    As Tamara was at pains to stress, two day time lag for the models to get to grips with the background signals. I am very positive with regards to a very cold Feb. I really wouldn't be surprised if the retrogression takes place more rapidly than what the ecm op showed tonight. The models struggle with retrogression and may very well be underplaying it.

    At least in this case the background signals are favourable as well. We all know only too well that retrogression and genuine Greenland heights are modelled way more than they clarify. I guess that's true of several patterns which are outside the envelope of normal for the U.K. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, wind and summer storms
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan

    Reading through today's posts I am in total disbelief at what I'm reading. 

    People have incredibly short memories. 

    Only 6 days ago this cold spell had next to no support from the Met and now we are staring down the barrel of 4-5 days of cold with snow in some locations. 

    Those looking a week ahead do so at their own peril. 7 days is a HUGE amount of time in weather terms. 

    Sit back, relax and enjoy the twists and turns that is model output. 

    This tweet from 6 days ago sums it up. 

    IMG_9106.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    2 minutes ago, Certain kind of fool said:

    At least in this case the background signals are favourable as well. We all know only too well that retrogression and genuine Greenland heights are modelled way more than they clarify. I guess that's true of several patterns which are outside the envelope of normal for the U.K. 

    In these situations, the ensemble means are very useful. Both the gfs and ecm 8 to 10 day means have shown impressive (for means) heights towards Greenland over the last couple of days. This signal really is gaining traction.

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    Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
    3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    In these situations, the ensemble means are very useful. Both the gfs and ecm 8 to 10 day means have shown impressive (for means) heights towards Greenland over the last couple of days. This signal really is gaining traction.

    Still need to lose the Euro heights though. Interesting watching ahead.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
    27 minutes ago, skifreak said:

    Well the Met Office updates were going for the likelihood of colder than average conditions in their extended outlooks, The opposite has been getting progressively more likely with every run, as can be seen in one go from the Aberdeen 850hpa Temp ensembles. A quick flick through the GFS 12z is a horror show  for Scottish Ski Areas not least because after a prolonged spell of settled conditions we could see the peak period of half term holidays being wild and wet! 

     MT8_Aberdeen_850hpa_2017_02_07_12z.thumb.png.f3f4b839f35badabe0dd8e6cfe2c357e.png

    That is assuming the GFS has picked out the correct solution though?!  The actual weather might have other ideas!

    There are plenty of outliers which keep the uppers pretty much cold throughout and that is setting aside the fact it will still feel cold at the surface regardless of the uppers.

    Time will tell but we have seen whole ensemble suites flip at the drop of a hat on more than one occasion recently so I won't be sticking the mortgage on the GFS being correct with the pattern for a week away just yet.

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    Posted
  • Location: Romford, Essex
  • Location: Romford, Essex

    As others have said, a lot of the eye candy charts appear at day 10.

    It's like being promised a date with Margot Robbie in 10 days time, turning up at the pub at said time all excited only to be greeted by Susan Boyle. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    1 minute ago, Roadrunner said:

    As others have said, a lot of the eye candy charts appear at day 10.

     

    Eye candy from day 2..:cold::D

    Cheers Ecm:drinks:

    48_mslp850uk.png

    72_mslp850uk.png

    96_mslp850uk.png

    120_mslp850uk.png

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    1 minute ago, Roadrunner said:

    As others have said, a lot of the eye candy charts appear at day 10.

    It's like being promised a date with Margot Robbie in 10 days time, turning up at the pub at said time all excited only to be greeted by Susan Boyle.

    Whose Margot Robbie? lol Eye candy at day ten not supported by background signals isn't the case this time. If the UK can't get some decent cold and snow during the next few weeks then that would be akin to missing an open goal from 3 feet! I don't think you'll have to meet up with Susan Boyle! lmao

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Another fascinating day at the models and I can't help but think "where is the next twist"? Some thoughts for the pot:

    1. I've said it before, I'll say it again - 8 times out of 10, that Iberian low will try to make its way north, not west. Tonight's UKMO had hints of that. If that happens, bin everything past D7.

    2. I don't buy these huge areas of slack pressure. When do they ever verify? Happened last month, massive slack area forecast at the end of that SEly, we all scratched our heads in confusion ... and it didn't get close to verifying. I translate that as model talk for "We do not know what is going to happen next". So another possible reason to bin the output coming up.

    3. Large low coming off the states at D6-D8 - why aren't all models throwing up a decent ridge ahead of it? All except UKMO, of course. I would have thought a ridge could separate that nothing low in Atlantic from the US low, head towards Greenland, build over the top of the Atlantic low and further encourage retrogression.

    Will any of these theories come to pass? In the meantime, did I hear someone say snow??

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    38 minutes ago, captain jack said:

    This is an unusual set up for the UK, hence the model variations. The bigger picture according to seriously knowledgeable people like @Tamara tends to suggest that the hemispheric factors that actually drive our weather are in our favour for upcoming 'winter weather' and I for one would trust this rather than six hourly computer predictions that will inevitably try to revert to the climatalogical norm. There are some great members like @Steve Murr, @nick sussex on here that aim to give us viable options as to what may happen based on each run but unfortunately there are others that just wish to hear their own voice and take pleasure in finding opportunities to disappoint the majority. It is going to get cold, it might snow, its still winter, enjoy!

    Conversely you have to remember that using teleconnections also relies on using data which is a projection to some extent. I've seen plenty of instances where promising background signals have faded into obscurity along with the stellar model output. November 2016 being a case in point, just 3 months ago. 

    I don't think people aim to disappoint the majority as for one that line of thinking comes across as slightly paranoid and secondly, people cannot control weather or the atmosphere- they can merely comment on what is unfolding and how they expect it to unfold going forward. Their point is just as valid as the so called 'positive' people whom you suggest seem to have more weighting on this forum. Just because it's something that you personally don't wish to hear, it doesn't mean that they are trolling or being negative nellies. 

    Soundbites like 'this is an unusual pattern for the models' and 'blocks won't be pushed aside so easily' and 'reverting to climatological norm' are fine but add nothing to the debate nor do they embellish any of the analysis of what we actually physically see represented in the modelling in front of us. Perspective and balance is sorely lacking sometimes in this thread. Being able to analyse model trends involves taking the rough with the smooth and not shutting your mind off to the less desirable outcome just because it's not what you want to see.

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Whose Margot Robbie? lol Eye candy at day ten not supported by background signals isn't the case this time. If the UK can't get some decent cold and snow during the next few weeks then that would be akin to missing an open goal from 3 feet! I don't think you'll have to meet up with Susan Boyle! lmao

    Well we have the next 5 or 6 days of eye candy for a start of course.:) 

     

    Anyone notice the updated met office Uk Outlook for 12 Feb-21 Feb? States snow showers likely in the east, with a small chance of these becoming heavier. Also, It will feel very cold in the easterly wind. This was updated at 13.28 today and is for next week of course from Sunday 12th Feb, what are they seeing that we ain't for next week? mmm

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    Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs

    just catching up here after first looking at the met office forecast for the next 7 days and left uninspired regarding cold, temp of 2c tomorrow but 5c by monday and dry, the weather outlook 16 day forecast has spring arriving by the middle of feb and temps upto 13c by the 20th, and with reading comments here i guess the prolonged cold spell that was being touted about has all but gone and is now a cpl of colder days, so glad i have not told my so there is snow on its way, lol,  but still forever hopeful that one winter will deliver the goods, but its not looking like this one, but to all those who still have the faith, keep up the hunt and i hope you find it, lol  i so want to see some snow

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Oooo hello. Did someone say Greenland ridge??

    814day.03.gif

    Nice, but wasn't this saying the beast a few days ago?

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Norwich, Norfolk
  • Location: Nr Norwich, Norfolk
    21 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Conversely you have to remember that using teleconnections also relies on using data which is a projection to some extent. I've seen plenty of instances where promising background signals have faded into obscurity along with the stellar model output. November 2016 being a case in point, just 3 months ago. 

    I don't think people aim to disappoint the majority as for one that line of thinking comes across as slightly paranoid and secondly, people cannot control weather or the atmosphere- they can merely comment on what is unfolding and how they expect it to unfold going forward. Their point is just as valid as the so called 'positive' people whom you suggest seem to have more weighting on this forum. Just because it's something that you personally don't wish to hear, it doesn't mean that they are trolling or being negative nellies. 

    Soundbites like 'this is an unusual pattern for the models' and 'blocks won't be pushed aside so easily' and 'reverting to climatological norm' are fine but add nothing to the debate nor do they embellish any of the analysis of what we actually physically see represented in the modelling in front of us. Perspective and balance is sorely lacking sometimes in this thread. Being able to analyse model trends involves taking the rough with the smooth and not shutting your mind off to the less desirable outcome just because it's not what you want to see.

    I do not profess to have the knowledge of some on here and cannot read the charts as well as many, so rely on the interpretations of others. my point is not in the least paranoid as I am not attached to the outcome. I just want to see a balanced analysis based on more factors than one operational run as that is how you learn. I think you are being disingenuous to suggest that some people on here do not 'troll' as you put it and I am certainly not using soundbites, just logical thinking.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Oooo hello. Did someone say Greenland ridge??

    814day.03.gif

    With respect, we've seen these charts several times this winter and it's never verified. 

    I get why people are trying to be positive but we are fast running out of time and that's why most people are frustrated, this winter has promised so much at times and delivered little to nothing for most and for MOST on here this 'easterly' looks like not delivering anything, hence why people are frustrated at the let downs and left chasing day 10 charts again

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Not much change in the de bilt ENS. Op milder at the end, more spread nearer the end is expected in this set up!!

    IMG_4227.PNG

    IMG_4228.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    5 minutes ago, captain jack said:

    I do not profess to have the knowledge of some on here and cannot read the charts as well as many, so rely on the interpretations of others. my point is not in the least paranoid as I am not attached to the outcome. I just want to see a balanced analysis based on more factors than one operational run as that is how you learn. I think you are being disingenuous to suggest that some people on here do not 'troll' as you put it and I am certainly not using soundbites, just logical thinking.

    Never rely solely on the interpretation of others...It sounds harder than it is to interpret NWP output, once you get the hang of it the first thing you will end up doing is looking at the models and forming your own conclusions. This forum then acts as a subsidiary to cross check the views of others and perhaps supplement your own views with the views of some of the seasoned members on here (and there are a fair few). 

    Yes, there have been a fair few trolls over the years but most members on here are well meaning, even if they only profess to possess a rudimentary handle on all things NWP!

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore
    1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

    With respect, we've seen these charts several times this winter and it's never verified. 

    I get why people are trying to be positive but we are fast running out of time and that's why most people are frustrated, this winter has promised so much at times and delivered little to nothing for most and for MOST on here this 'easterly' looks like not delivering anything, hence why people are frustrated at the let downs and left chasing day 10 charts again

    To be fair, those anomaly charts have been very good most of the winter. They've often pointed toward milder outcomes than the operationals, and more often than not that was proved correct. Not every time of course, and prior success or failure doesn't mean anything when it comes to a forecasting model, but there's plenty to be said for them. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex

    As charts go, this is possibly the strangest I have seen in yonks. Are we back in the scenario where FI is T96ish?

    ECH1-144.GIF?07-0

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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

    Everything heading nicely in the right direction I am very happy with how things are panning out indeed

    A good looking (in fact a lot better than the charts were showing a few days ago) initial cold spell on the way.

    An Inevitable, unavoidable and predicted mild(er) spell to follow

    Then a growing retrogression signal filtering through very nicely indeed thank you very much, which will likely mean our mild(er) spell could well only be an insignificant mild(er) snap.

    All is still good

     

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