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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


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Knee-jerk, a joke!?...if that is what you believe then simply don't follow. I was simply highlighting what the EC ENS are showing and to be honest certain people need to read before commentating, perh

Yes, I recognise these sage pieces of sentiment so well. The signals are always wrong, and the professionals (and others) who try to present and explain them, when an operational appears to take away

This is an unusual set up for the UK, hence the model variations. The bigger picture according to seriously knowledgeable people like @Tamara tends to suggest that the hemispheric factors that actuall

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21 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

If ECM had varified there wouldnt even be a cold spell to enjoy.... its been woeful

I don't recall the ECM showing (in last few days) that there wouldn't be a cold spell from Thurs-Sun ? It was slated by some though for sinking the Scandi high as shown by most output now. Flick back through the last 4 ECM runs and compare to last 4 GFS runs for example and you will see how the GFS is now following the ECM with regards to nxt week. 

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3 minutes ago, Singularity said:

The interaction of the Iberian low with the Atlantic jet continues to cause a lot of problems either for the modelling or for those seeking a swift return to cold conditions after a blip Mon-Tue, which seems to have fallen off the table (but can't yet be binned).

For a time we see the possible longer-term benefits being hinted at as the broad trough W of Europe supports height rises to our NW... but then we start to see lows drifting N/NE from the trough and this is where my dubious alarm goes off given the MJO forcing that looks almost ideal for shutting off any path in that direction.

Uet given that the models have actually trended in the wrong direction today there must be something else at play. Maybe the unusually vigorous tropical signals are causing unstable model progressions that can't be trusted - that would explain the Met Office outlook not yet changing. Or perhaps the deep Iberian low is so unusual that outcomes which are usually illogical actually become possible... as you can probably tell I'm reaching far and wide for possible explanations to help me keep my faith in the background signals pulling through. I'm not quite as able to distance myself from the model madness as Tamara is - much to my own cost!

 

I'll politely ask if I may, what are your thoughts on the direction of the Iberian low over the weekend? 

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That's a really shocking ENS suite compared to the 6z set... but the ensembles are just as fickle as the ops so not going to read too much into it unless we see it a see the trend sustained more.

you just know the ECM will throw out a stronker now, would be so typical

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

Just a snippet but tomasz on the beeb just now talking of cold easterlies setting in and i quote ' lasting well into next week'.I know that probably doesnt tie in with the NWP this evening but thought i would mention it.

Could well be reflecting back on older data as he'll be busy preparing for the forecast and won't be able too see the latest updates. Anyway can the ECM save the day that's the question.

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Don't understand why people are dissapointed too see the cold flow getting cut off for next week as that is the most likely thing to happen from all the runs I have seen, I think we shoud be happy that there is actually a genuine risk of some snowfall this weekend although details on this is really is sketchy. We were looking at a dry cloudy horrible cold ESE'ly flow with high thicknesses but the short term upgrades includes slightly lower thicknesses, slightly lower pressure thanks to a shallow low that is forecast to develop over the North sea and head towards the UK. I see 'snow showers' being mentioned but to me its not snow showers, its outbreaks of PPN from a weather front/trough rather than anything convective, question will be, will it be cold enough to fall as snow as with higher thicknesses and the fact the PPN is not convective then temps do seem slightly higher than one might expect so for some eastern areas it could be more rain/sleet but its one to watch with interest and see how the forecasts plays out.

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19 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I don't recall the ECM showing (in last few days) that there wouldn't be a cold spell from Thurs-Sun ? It was slated by some though for sinking the Scandi high as shown by most output now. Flick back through the last 4 ECM runs and compare to last 4 GFS runs for example and you will see how the GFS is now following the ECM with regards to nxt week. 

Ironically the ECM has been doing a GFS & vice versa-

ECM to agressive on the push through & sinking away to the SE, GFS to amplified- UKMO in that 70% middle ground zone again where its been all winter- pretty much spot on-

although I can see where your coming from... 

Let see what today brings, I was just looking at the ECM 00z & it looked primed for a polar outbreak post the end - which is good as im off for 3 weeks from next week friday- hoping for a good few snow days either here or even if I have to drive !

S

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People talking about this being a short cold snap. A 'blink and you will miss it' event. Can't say I agree. We may lose the cold upper air temperatures next week but, it will probably still be cold at the surface 

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7 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

5 day snap will do Thursday through Monday with several 100% chances of snowfall.

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Totally agree, it's been glossed over by some who are just going on about milder weather next week but this looks like a noteworthy cold outbreak and hopefully it won't be the last!

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4 minutes ago, mother nature rocks said:

Or possibly the METS GLOSEA is seeing a different route??

Yup like last weekend when they kept on going on about storms while the big three really wanted to play ball with that idea at that point in time.

Good agreement upT96 on the ECM it's next few charts that are important. If they show something different from the GFS and UKMO then it's all to play for.

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8 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

People talking about this being a short cold snap. A 'blink and you will miss it' event. Can't say I agree. We may lose the cold upper air temperatures next week but, it will probably still be cold at the surface 

im not sure matt mid febuary sun getting stronger +4 uppers daffs ready to push open first signs of spring is in the air still if its clear skies we will still get hard frosts during the night unless the models change again of course 

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Just now, Johnp said:

Didn't we have a potential cold spell earlier in the winter derailed by a poxy little Atlantic / Azores low just meandering around?

Or did I imagine that?:cc_confused:

Start of Jan had cold snap with with aggrement across all models acept for UKMO

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