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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

GFS, UKMO and ECM singing from the same hyhm sheet so a short cold spell before temperatures recover to normal values next week. A case of blink and you'll miss it. Hopefully the models will change their mind in the next few days.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

The Control is a belter - this is what I meant!!

IMG_4226.PNG

This is P4 sorry , not much support at all

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
20 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes and the Ecm has been performing abysmally lately..I believe steve murr said as much earlier..and the pros don't see a change to milder weather next week either..sounded wintry to me! Anyway, the mod has descended into chaos again this afternoon..just like this morning..take more notice of Bring Back 1962-63 is my advice.

Sorry mate can't let this one go un-checked. ECM was the first model to predict the scandi high sinking. At that point it was slated by some as it was the only model showing this. Nearly all models Have now come round to the ECM view on things. Our cold spell will end Monday. Some people need to get over that fact. Hopefully cold will return at some point before spring kicks in and we are now looking for signs of this in the output. 

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

 Both Vaasa and Kronoby in Finland now at 1049.0 mbar. Also the area of highest pressure seems to be spreading Westward. 

Edit: this data is just data from  various towns/villages that frequently update so think it's interesting to post as a reminder of the constantly evolving situation. as  @Bring Back1962-63 says; the central pressure is naturaly a little higher than this. 

Edited by Chris.R
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The GFS ens has the coldest 850's gone by Monday likely to still feel cold given the likely wind chill

gens-21-0-144.png?12gens-21-0-168.png?12

It does become a bit colder again later as high pressure moves over

gens-21-0-240.png?12gens-21-1-240.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The Control is a belter - this is what I meant!!

IMG_4226.PNG

The ensembles aren't great in general though, the signal for a GH is not as strong as the 6z but that's not too surprising.

850 mean will be a noticeable uptick on the 6z ones though

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
Just now, Weathizard said:

The ensembles aren't great in general though, the signal for a GH is not as strong as the 6z but that's not too surprising.

850 mean will be a noticeable uptick on the 6z ones though

The chart above is 06z chart old data 12z not as good.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Sorry mate can't let this one go un-checked. ECM was the first model to predict the scandi high sinking. At that point it was slated by some as it was the only model showing this. Nearly all models Have now come round to the ECM view on things. Our cold spell will end Monday. Some people need to get over that fact. Hopefully cold will return at some point before spring kicks in and we are now looking for signs of this in the output. 

Actually it showed it retrogressing into the Atlantic first of all. But even so it's overall the most reliable model at day 5 and 6 with ukmo 2nd.

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
13 minutes ago, The PIT said:

GFS, UKMO and ECM singing from the same hyhm sheet so a short cold spell before temperatures recover to normal values next week. A case of blink and you'll miss it. Hopefully the models will change their mind in the next few days.

Im confused the meto where steadfest with there long range forecast Surly must have seen this coming  a sudden swing to a cold snap.

Edited by abbie123
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Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Wight - Newport
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters/Hot summers
  • Location: Isle Of Wight - Newport

The other day I thanked the posters for their wonderful insight into the models and help people like myself to learn.

Reading this thread tonight and it is like play school and very confusing to read and at least get an understanding!  

Act like grown ups everyone is entitled an opinion, just respect everyone else's! 

onto the Models and I am looking forward to hopefully a bit of snow and my take is a few days warm up and then back into the freezer. It is going to feel pretty cold the next few days and I think we maybe surprised but just how cold it will feel.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
50 minutes ago, MKN said:

Cant be very often we see charts predicting -10 upper and rain in the same place

 

Ignore me you have used different times there!

Yes its going to feel bitter out on Saturday and a fair bit of snow around. I find the Hirlam to be a pretty good short term model, we can see here light snow showers moving inland this Thursday, this confirms the EURO 4 (06z), the 12z will be out soon btw and should be interesting. So this confirms a window of about 4 days in total for snowfall. EDIT: As in snowfall potential.

We also have small amounts of settling snow on the Hirlam which is nice to see.:)

hirlamuk-42-43-0.png

hirlamuk-42-46-0.png

hirlamuk-42-48-0.png

hirlamuk-45-48-0.png

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: South Petherton 41 metres (134 feet)
  • Location: South Petherton 41 metres (134 feet)
20 minutes ago, The PIT said:

GFS, UKMO and ECM singing from the same hyhm sheet so a short cold spell before temperatures recover to normal values next week. A case of blink and you'll miss it. Hopefully the models will change their mind in the next few days.

No models are just struggling with the block next week will remain cold at the surface you wait and see

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
6 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Short ENS rock solid for an 850 warm up and pretty quick to.

The less cold spell has been pretty certain for me these past few days. What happens beyond is up for question. I said jokingly we could have S,lys from Africa or N,lys from the Arctic. Well the trend towards the N,lys via a Greenland HP has definately took a step back after the 12Z GFS/GEM. I haven't had chance to view the ensembles yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

Looking at 12z short ensembles it seems the OP is the warmest for upper 850s between the 12th and 14th for IMBY!

IMG_8764.thumb.GIF.7fa1d02b9bd102ed5b0325662176855e.GIF

Full agreement on the warm up to balmy upper air temps of 0c from the 15th. Beach chair at the ready!

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I do wonder if ukmo has ' gone off one one ' tonight, GEM looks much more like gfs at 96, anyway ecm out shortly that might give a better idea..

 Is the ukmo looking good or bad for the cold fans.

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Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
12 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Short ENS rock solid for an 850 warm up and pretty quick to.

it should feel quite pleasant spring like come mid febuary with uppers of +4 and above another euro slug is the most likely outcome again from this HP for the 10th time this season still at least we have a 4 day cold snap 

Edited by igloo
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
52 minutes ago, MKN said:

Cant be very often we see charts predicting -10 upper and rain in the same place

 

Ignore me you have used different times there!

Looks like slightly milder sector moving in from the North Sea along with the PPN. That shouldn't really be there in this sort of set up, but it is. mmm:cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
2 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

So rather than declare the original post as having 'stupid comments' why didn't you just report the post in question and let the site team look at it, like we've advised on countless occasions?......posts criticising other members posts as 'stupid' don't help anyone in the thread

Well it might stop them posting those kind of comments again, but I digress and apologise for not reporting it. 

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