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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


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Knee-jerk, a joke!?...if that is what you believe then simply don't follow. I was simply highlighting what the EC ENS are showing and to be honest certain people need to read before commentating, perh

Yes, I recognise these sage pieces of sentiment so well. The signals are always wrong, and the professionals (and others) who try to present and explain them, when an operational appears to take away

This is an unusual set up for the UK, hence the model variations. The bigger picture according to seriously knowledgeable people like @Tamara tends to suggest that the hemispheric factors that actuall

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11 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

UKM and GFS at 120, I'm happy with this as a starting point if we get there... lack of cold uppers on tap is of concern thougg

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Agree , for most the SouthEasterly source is now from the med..Cold but no where near cold enough, would think any showers would be sleety by this time..

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2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

All I see is a northerly for Lapland?

To be honest wouldn't trust anything past Friday at the min don't worry about these runs the models are not at grips beyond 2 days I should think the ecm is not correct yet has it as not happened I remember about 4 weeks back it showed an easterly out at 5 days you no what happend with that. Lol

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7 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Sorry but I have to say it, game over at 144 on both, look at the jet screaming over the north. As I say, I only look to 168. GEM going the same way. Nice one ECM, right again.

Game over for what exactly Warren? 

This weekend looks pretty good to me (for cold and a bit of snow). 

After that, all cards are on the table. 

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

It's not that stupid, the source of the air is actually Africa!!

gfsnh-0-198.png?12

I can see that, but anyone with some sense will analysing the charts in more aspects than just what it is showing at the time. We all know it will get somewhat milder next week, this isn't groundbreaking news. These posts don't help new people to the thread!

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If people can't see what is staring them in the face on all the models so far at 144, then I think people need to clear their caches. I see so far we have FI is at 120 (that has come down from 168)

Edited by warrenb
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6 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Different times, mine was for 120-144, Chino was later in the run. But the damage has been done by then

"Damage" is a tiny bit over the top. Synoptics are still great, a lack of immediate northeasterlies doesn't make the run a disaster. We'll see where this takes us.

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I wouldn't say milder, more like somewhat less cold at worst but again this upcoming cold spell could last quite a while..I would say give it chance, the weekend looks cold and next week could be cold too..cold scandi blocks tend to stick around!:D

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5 minutes ago, Johnp said:

How exactly is that close to anything wintry?  This run doesn't look like developing the same retrogression we saw on the 6z.

Deep and entrenched HP over Scandinavia starting to retrogress NW'wards, southerly tracking jet, moribund Atlantic, split vortex.

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4 minutes ago, warrenb said:

If people can't seem what is staring them in the face on all the models so far at 144, then I think people need to clear their caches. I see so far we have FI is at 120 (that has come down from 168)

Defo an African sourced flow for several days on the GFS, it would be very warm in any sun if this was the case with temps maybe hitting 10/11c.  This is what this run is showing anyway.  All will change next run for sure.

Edited by Ali1977
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Just now, CreweCold said:

Some unsavoury attitudes towards Warren on here this afternoon...Not nice to see given he's only commenting on this run & what he sees infront of him. Reminiscent of some of the crap that has been thrown at me for going against expectations in the past. It was obvious early on when it started aligning to the ECM around days 5/6 that it would be more of a slog to get heights to Greenland (not to say it's impossible on this run, mind).

I apologise if I seem rude, but according to some people on this forum we might as well book a summer break for next week.  

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Need to learn how to read charts before commenting, lots on netweather.tv to help you with that. 

Beyond Friday is up for debate still but given this would be the third cold spell for the south east nothing to moan about here.. 

It's interesting that the GFS has thrown the idea out of a very long fetched southerly source of weather. Interesting to see where this goes... 

For now lets just stop and enjoy what's staring us in the face 

Edited by Surrey
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3 minutes ago, Johnp said:

How exactly is that close to anything wintry?  This run doesn't look like developing the same retrogression we saw on the 6z.

angle of heights near greenland blocked of zonal flow with lows diving south east.

and its not a retrogression and its a normal high pressure being pumped up from the azores but it then sets up between iceland and scandi area it then gets pulled west towards greenland thats only my opinion.

bring northerly or north easterly.

but to be fair both gem and ukmo look different from the gfs but im only commenting on what believe the models are showing.

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Whilst we could do with the Iberian low pushing east in the short term, it is actually intensifying in situ and therefore driving the air North from the med region. The surface flow is generally east of south for the uk so will be chilly, especially if it's cloudy. The uppers are positive by early next week so any frontal incursions will be rain, whatever the surface flow ahead of them.

the day 6 UKMO is intersting - is that just a rum chart ? If it isn't, it could provide quick renewal of energy for the Iberian trough to push a bit further east - we need something to help advect those colder uppers back across nw Europe before the possible retrogression later week 2.

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GFS gives the south double-figure temps on Monday

12_147_uk2mtmp.png?cb=736

Past Monday it's more of a north-south split with high single figures possibly just into double figures for the south but always colder the further south you go

12_171_uk2mtmp.png?cb=73612_195_uk2mtmp.png?cb=73612_219_uk2mtmp.png?cb=736

Based on GFS I would say more cold snap than cold spell

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3 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

I apologise if I seem rude, but according to some people on this forum we might as well book a summer break for next week.  

By day 10 it would definitely feel like spring...some actual warm uppers spreading northwards along with it. Best to keep an open mind and not discount anything. Anyway, I'm still of the opinion any warm up will be fairly brief, even if the first Greenland high attempt fails

gfsnh-0-240.png?12

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