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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


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Knee-jerk, a joke!?...if that is what you believe then simply don't follow. I was simply highlighting what the EC ENS are showing and to be honest certain people need to read before commentating, perh

Yes, I recognise these sage pieces of sentiment so well. The signals are always wrong, and the professionals (and others) who try to present and explain them, when an operational appears to take away

This is an unusual set up for the UK, hence the model variations. The bigger picture according to seriously knowledgeable people like @Tamara tends to suggest that the hemispheric factors that actuall

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The issue is as I have coined it is the Balkans bottom of the high. As soon as it dips down to the Adriatic, the whole lot will pivot. Both GFS and Meto doing this, to make this a very short lived blast.

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6 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Indeed it does. So just goes to show nothing is 100% nailed. It will probably end up being a very short range forecast situation and nowcasting.

The 72 and 120 chart on the UKMO show a decent Easterly but the 96 one, well it looks broken!!! Not sure if that's correct or not, but to me it doesn't look right!!! 

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I've mentioned a few times now about a quick transition to a Northerly - well here it is!! can't post pictures but even by next Tue something is brewing if a little too far East on this run.

Edited by Ali1977
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06z: hgt300.png   12z: hgt300.png h850t850eu.png

Looking at this, the loop in the jet is closer to closing off to our NW than it was on previous runs, and we see a corresponding stronger height and SLP rise just south of Iceland. 

There is a notably stronger switchback of the jet into the N. Atlantic which should discourage the ridge to our east from hanging around... yet it seems the surface cold there is so strong that it maintains the surface high in the face of the upper pattern!

h850t850eu.png

Anyway it's interesting to see an extra kink in the flow on this run going into Sunday; this should hold up the influx of less cold air from the SE, albeit only briefly.

 

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3 minutes ago, Anon90 said:

Dismiss the ECM at your peril, could tell very early on that this run wasn't going be good in the medium/longer term.

You're joking right? We'd give our right arm for a starting point we could have at 120/144... if anything the building blocks on this run are better

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1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

You're joking right? We'd give our right arm for a starting point we could have at 120/144... if anything the building blocks on this run are better

It has stepped towards the ECM at 144

ECH1-144.GIF?07-12

The ECM chart is above...GFS very similar..

gfsnh-0-138.png?12

Edited by CreweCold
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Sorry but I have to say it, game over at 144 on both, look at the jet screaming over the north. As I say, I only look to 168. GEM going the same way. Nice one ECM, right again.

Edited by warrenb
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5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I've mentioned a few times now about a quick transition to a Northerly - well here it is!! can't post pictures but even by next Tue something is brewing if a little too far East on this run.

All I see is a northerly for Lapland?

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This GFS although doesn't look great it was a decent run, it wouldn't take much more retrogression of the WAA  around T132 and we'd have a Northerly - on this run the pattern moved 500 miles closer compared to the 06Z, and I'm sure the GEFS will make more of this.  

When the GEFS are out look for some Perbs quickly going colder after the milder blip - and look for some having us in a full blown Northerly by late next week.

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5 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Sorry but I have to say it, game over at 144 on both, look at the jet screaming over the north. As I say, I only look to 168. GEM going the same way. Nice one ECM, right again.

 

4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

As I said last night - mid term mild for long term gain. Could be stonking NEasterly on this GFS run in FI. Look at the jet profile off Canada. No northern jet.

 

Totally confused by this!!! 

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4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

As I said last night - mid term mild for long term gain. Could be stonking NEasterly on this GFS run in FI. Look at the jet profile off Canada. No northern jet.

indeed you did chiono and we are so close 

gfsnh-0-192.thumb.png.34eb3d8c25324f51e29b013970ea68ba.png

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7 minutes ago, Johnp said:

All I see is a northerly for Lapland?

And on the 06z it was over central Russia, it moved way back west like some of the 06 GEFS, just saying keep an eye out for this happening!!

 

Also we could have a split vortex by day 10, by day 9 look around Greeny, it's thinning fast!!

Edited by Ali1977
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