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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

    UK just delays the progression west a little. Perhaps a disturbance in the flow? Could be interesting but I cannot determine that from data I have.

     

    120 is good.

     

    UW120-21.GIF

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    Posted
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers and cold winters with snow.
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
    4 minutes ago, Racing Green said:

    Is it me or is the GFS sending the Iberian low back to Europe on Saturday?

    Looks like it is sending it back in the mid Atlantic?

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent

    The issue is as I have coined it is the Balkans bottom of the high. As soon as it dips down to the Adriatic, the whole lot will pivot. Both GFS and Meto doing this, to make this a very short lived blast.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    6 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

    Indeed it does. So just goes to show nothing is 100% nailed. It will probably end up being a very short range forecast situation and nowcasting.

    The 72 and 120 chart on the UKMO show a decent Easterly but the 96 one, well it looks broken!!! Not sure if that's correct or not, but to me it doesn't look right!!! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Well at least Saturday is a BOOM:D

    12_99_preciptype.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    UKM and GFS at 120, I'm happy with this as a starting point if we get there... lack of cold uppers on tap is of concern thougg

    IMG_7560.GIF

    IMG_7561.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    GFS following earlier ECM at 144

    gfsnh-0-144.png?12

    ECM leading the way with the progression it seems

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    I've mentioned a few times now about a quick transition to a Northerly - well here it is!! can't post pictures but even by next Tue something is brewing if a little too far East on this run.

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    this chart screams retrogression from scandi to greenland energy going under excellent run from the gfs any milder blip wont last to long certainly no zonal.gfsnh-0-150.thumb.png.d0ae96d9385aaa9cd10272fcb8db6d66.png

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    06z: hgt300.png   12z: hgt300.png h850t850eu.png

    Looking at this, the loop in the jet is closer to closing off to our NW than it was on previous runs, and we see a corresponding stronger height and SLP rise just south of Iceland. 

    There is a notably stronger switchback of the jet into the N. Atlantic which should discourage the ridge to our east from hanging around... yet it seems the surface cold there is so strong that it maintains the surface high in the face of the upper pattern!

    h850t850eu.png

    Anyway it's interesting to see an extra kink in the flow on this run going into Sunday; this should hold up the influx of less cold air from the SE, albeit only briefly.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

    I think the 96hr UKM chart drops a shortwave south across Ireland/west Scotland into Wales....by around 108hrs... then exiting south allowing the easterly to flow in by 120hrs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    3 minutes ago, Anon90 said:

    Dismiss the ECM at your peril, could tell very early on that this run wasn't going be good in the medium/longer term.

    You're joking right? We'd give our right arm for a starting point we could have at 120/144... if anything the building blocks on this run are better

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

    You're joking right? We'd give our right arm for a starting point we could have at 120/144... if anything the building blocks on this run are better

    It has stepped towards the ECM at 144

    ECH1-144.GIF?07-12

    The ECM chart is above...GFS very similar..

    gfsnh-0-138.png?12

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent

    Sorry but I have to say it, game over at 144 on both, look at the jet screaming over the north. As I say, I only look to 168. GEM going the same way. Nice one ECM, right again.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
    4 minutes ago, Anon90 said:

    Dismiss the ECM at your peril, could tell very early on that this run wasn't going be good in the medium/longer term.

    ECM isn't out yet?

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    As I said last night - mid term mild for long term gain. Could be stonking NEasterly on this GFS run in FI. Look at the jet profile off Canada. No northern jet.

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
    5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    I've mentioned a few times now about a quick transition to a Northerly - well here it is!! can't post pictures but even by next Tue something is brewing if a little too far East on this run.

    All I see is a northerly for Lapland?

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    This GFS although doesn't look great it was a decent run, it wouldn't take much more retrogression of the WAA  around T132 and we'd have a Northerly - on this run the pattern moved 500 miles closer compared to the 06Z, and I'm sure the GEFS will make more of this.  

    When the GEFS are out look for some Perbs quickly going colder after the milder blip - and look for some having us in a full blown Northerly by late next week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
    5 minutes ago, warrenb said:

    Sorry but I have to say it, game over at 144 on both, look at the jet screaming over the north. As I say, I only look to 168. GEM going the same way. Nice one ECM, right again.

     

    4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    As I said last night - mid term mild for long term gain. Could be stonking NEasterly on this GFS run in FI. Look at the jet profile off Canada. No northern jet.

     

    Totally confused by this!!! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
    7 minutes ago, warrenb said:

    Sorry but I have to say it, game over at 144 on both, look at the jet screaming over the north. As I say, I only look to 168.

     

    7 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    As I said last night - mid term mild for long term gain. Could be stonking NEasterly on this GFS run in FI. Look at the jet profile off Canada. No northern jet.

     

    :cc_confused: 

    So it looks like a cold and snowy weekend for many followed by some milder uppers but still bitter at the surface and then a probable Northerly / North Easterly if / when the high retrogresses.  Things are looking great (if you are a coldie)!  :cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
    4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    As I said last night - mid term mild for long term gain. Could be stonking NEasterly on this GFS run in FI. Look at the jet profile off Canada. No northern jet.

    indeed you did chiono and we are so close 

    gfsnh-0-192.thumb.png.34eb3d8c25324f51e29b013970ea68ba.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    7 minutes ago, Johnp said:

    All I see is a northerly for Lapland?

    And on the 06z it was over central Russia, it moved way back west like some of the 06 GEFS, just saying keep an eye out for this happening!!

     

    Also we could have a split vortex by day 10, by day 9 look around Greeny, it's thinning fast!!

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