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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

    Well here we go gang. Let's hope we get a good gfs12z and ukmo and hopefully the grinch that's the ecm falls into line later. Strap yourselves in for the model rollercoaster. Scream if you wanna go faster!!!!!

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    Knee-jerk, a joke!?...if that is what you believe then simply don't follow. I was simply highlighting what the EC ENS are showing and to be honest certain people need to read before commentating, perh

    Yes, I recognise these sage pieces of sentiment so well. The signals are always wrong, and the professionals (and others) who try to present and explain them, when an operational appears to take away

    This is an unusual set up for the UK, hence the model variations. The bigger picture according to seriously knowledgeable people like @Tamara tends to suggest that the hemispheric factors that actuall

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

    I think some peoples expectations of the upcoming easterly is far too high to start off with and I think its because we are seeing uppers of -10 heading our way, some are assuming that will equal a snowfest hence some of the posts stating there dissapointment at today's runs.

    The easterly is NOT a snowy convective easterly to start off with and any PPN that does form will be either from weather fronts/troughs and because of cold air and pressure being fairly high then PPN amounts will be quite limited. The trend has been for the air to start mixing out a little bit hence by Sunday and when we pick up that SE'ly flow the uppers will start to rise.

    The ECM evolution is plausiable because I have seen so many retorgression attempts fail because of shortwaves, some people on here who should know better should not dismiss it out of hand, whether we will end up with the Euro high developing is far too early to say but past experiences may suggest this is more likely than a Greenland high.

    There could be some surprises this weekend regarding snowfall as these shallow lower thicknesses/heights can produce more PPN than expected and it will be slow moving but for me this is not a classic easterly and never has been. The only impressive thing about it is the cold pool but in terms of weather excitment then I don't think it will be a memorable one unfortunately as frosts could well be more limited, sunshine very limited and convective snow showers virtually non existance.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants
    30 minutes ago, connorlad1974 said:

    Really a plume? Some models are expressing some change of air mass to come from a SE quadrant over a fairly cold continent, surface cold would see be very viable under these circumstances, the ensembles see a less cold period but no plume, do you have any charts to back this up please?  

    you need to also read the quoted post to put it in context - I don't think anybody was actually calling it a plume in the summer sense LOL. MWB was just referring the milder uppers being dragged up from the south next week - "rather like a plume".

    just taking the 06z ensembles there is pretty good agreement on the warmer uppers making inroads:

    t850London.png

    after that plenty of scatter but there is a downward trend again.

    So based on that I'd say the "change of airmass from a SE quadrant" has - AT THIS STAGE - more chance of verifying than a cold northerly at day 10.

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    the low out to our west is already further south not huge amount but enough to make a difference azores is pushed out the way ideal situation its not building to our south ive got a feeling greenland heights will start popping out more often.

    certainly ive climb down of the fence.

    gfs-0-42.thumb.png.a262407f382063c5ff7c465be226d460.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Less cold uppers are coming early next week, it's 100% happening but where we go from here is the interesting bit.  

    I'm hoping only 2/3 days less cold then mid next week we get a quick transition to a Northerly flow, to do this we may need the WAA coming up the Atlantic on the weekend to come on a sharper axis and then have enough forcing out of the Scandy high and Easterly to retrogress that into Greenland. 

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    scandi heights 1050mb thats a true block incredible.

    gfs-0-60.thumb.png.3ccd8812e13ac2552fcf7b9e71cca15f.png

    and this screams retrogression lows into europe and another pulse of deep cold coming in from the back door and atlantic well and truely blocked low to our sw is sliding under will help to sharpen easterly flow.

    Edited by MR EXTREMES
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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
    9 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

    scandi heights 1050mb thats a true block incredible.

    gfs-0-60.thumb.png.3ccd8812e13ac2552fcf7b9e71cca15f.png

    and this screams retrogression lows into europe and another pulse of deep cold coming in from the back door and atlantic well and truely blocked low to our sw is sliding under will help to sharpen easterly flow.

     It's only just below that now. 1048.8 is the highest airport reading I have so far. 

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    south coast eastern coasts could see some wintry weather and a deeper area of snowfall moving out of scandi area possible disturbance running east to west through the channel mmmmmm its a cold spell thats for sure.

    gfs-2-84.thumb.png.04bd84a8332eed59088d615c4e6acff7.pnggfs-2-96.thumb.png.d5c23db27cfed4b0c99ef5a78e81ab3d.png

    and country wide snow event at 96hrs 

    gfs-0-102.thumb.png.2d9ef07b9e1e6429dfd33d4dbad69dd4.png

    oh forgot to mention hlb nice lovely run not a retrogression just a straight build of greenland heights from the azores.

    Edited by MR EXTREMES
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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    21 minutes ago, Certain kind of fool said:

    you need to also read the quoted post to put it in context - I don't think anybody was actually calling it a plume in the summer sense LOL. MWB was just referring the milder uppers being dragged up from the south next week - "rather like a plume".

    just taking the 06z ensembles there is pretty good agreement on the warmer uppers making inroads:

    t850London.png

    after that plenty of scatter but there is a downward trend again.

    So based on that I'd say the "change of airmass from a SE quadrant" has - AT THIS STAGE - more chance of verifying than a cold northerly at day 10.

    When you explain it in detail it makes sense. The detail is the key. Being closer in time and with less "scatter" in the ensemble suite then that is true. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    It has to be said, this is a much better run for the weekend with a strong Easterly and a decent snow fall chance for many.

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
    7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Interesting - a double cold pool at T78. I wonder if this run is going to be a tiny bit different.

    gfs-0-78.png?12  

    The pool is further south on this run and the snow showers.

    gfs-0-96_dek6.pnggfs-2-96_rgx5.png

    Edited by Dancerwithwings
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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Upgrade! !

    Much better alignment 12z..

    Westward correct of main arm azores ridge....

    Could be synopticly better than its 6z 

     

     

    gfs-0-90.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Just 3 days ago GFS only had the real cold air for the east

    gfs-1-168.png?12

    3 days on

    gfs-1-96.png?12

    Upgrades from what was shown over the weekend just gone

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

    Upgrade! !

    Much better alignment 12z..

    Westward correct of main arm azores ridge....

    Could be synopticly better than its 6z 

     

     

    gfs-0-90.png

    Be wary though as the UKMO at 96 looks different.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
    2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    Be wary though as the UKMO at 96 looks different.

    Could you post it please? Thanks 

    Edit: it's been posted above so no worries

    Edited by danm
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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

    Be wary though as the UKMO at 96 looks different.

    yes the UKM looks worse for snow prospects but the Azores ridging is much better alligned

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

    Snowy Saturday for much of the UK from the GFS, brrrrrrrr

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Saturday looks quite 'snowy' on GFS 12z quite frequent widespread snow showers I would not expect them to be heavy, across the country London joins in too. BOO UKMO..

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    Be wary though as the UKMO at 96 looks different.

    Indeed it does. So just goes to show nothing is 100% nailed. It will probably end up being a very short range forecast situation and nowcasting.

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