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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    It really is annoying when people scream "downgrade" because one OP run isn't showing storm force Easterlies and -20 Uppers where they live.

    Another cold or very cold OP and quite similar to the 00Z output in FI which inspires confidence.

    The retrogression process is slow but it does allow the trough to drop into Scandinavia and offers a N or NE airflow with LPs passing along the Channel and that set up in late February is as good as it gets for those wanting snow - it's a similar set up which has provided lowland snow in late March.

    As for the 2m temperatures, oddly enough the 06Z looks colder than the 00Z next week so we may get up to 5c some days (may), there will be some sharp if not severe frosts and no sign of a blowtorch SW'ly.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    2 hours ago, Gibby said:

    The ECM is and has not been poor. It constantly verifies greater than GFS and UKMO. Remember a few days ago when it churned out that awful run when it showed High pressure drifting South and cutting off the cold period while all the other models maintained us in the freezer for next week. A couple of days later all models have caught up on the theme albeit in a modified form. ECM has modified its own version of that event but you cannot discount it because it hasn't been showing what you want it too. Wait till after the event then criticize. We've not even got to the cold spell yet so all models could be proved wrong but not until we reach the end of next week. You have to use longer range charts over say Day 5-6 for trends only not for specifics and that day in my mind when ECM pulled out that rogue run was the beginning of a new trend, one which has now spread across all output. From my POV the current trend is for milder conditions early next week but with the possibility of a return to colder conditions later. My reasoning being that is the trend I accomplish by a blend of all models, ensembles etc over this mornings and the last few runs. Heres the latest 10 Day Verification Stats for the 00zs.

    http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

    It was by far the least keen of all the models on the upcoming easterly. I know that much. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    24 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    Nonsense.

    Some real signs of retrogression on the 06z run

    gfs-0-240.png?6

    Yes, thanks be to the Lord, wave 2 on its way. 

    gfs-0-324.png

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    Posted
  • Location: UK/ EU resident in Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal
  • Location: UK/ EU resident in Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal
    4 minutes ago, warrenb said:

    Meto going to have egg on their faces if it is, as they have strongly gone for cold for rest of feb.

     

    12 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    Wheres the MJO and Strat help when you need it.

     

    13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Yes its bloody typical when gfs especially was going for a prlonged cold spell and john hammond was talking about the mjo etc then along came that ecm op run and the longer term is suddenly looking a lot less clear.

    Hopefully some get some snow fri and sat before it turns less cold sun possibly monday..

    All most of us want is a couple of days snowcover!

    Yes, I recognise these sage pieces of sentiment so well. The signals are always wrong, and the professionals (and others) who try to present and explain them, when an operational appears to take away your virtual snow :) 

    Remember the snapshots in time. Speaking for myself I won't write another book about that. Also remember that the last weekend in January suggested another two turgid weeks of Atlantic driven cyclonic tramlines. The upcoming period was picked up in the ashes of that ahead of NWP and the models have turned around and run with it. The likes of BB62/63 has spent the best part of three weeks (since the demise of the previous cold snap) documenting the apparent decline of the European cold and its expected return. This approach, along with technical information provided by a wide raft of other posters has not been far wrong at all at this type of juncture, so some slack could be afforded instead of stamping of feet. Then of course there is also the small matter of Mr Hammond and the professionals....

    It would be easy to sit and wait for each operational and ensemble suite and chop and change opinions each day from those. Safe that way for sure and can't really go wrong. Each to their own of course, but for some it is good to expansively push the boundaries.

    However, the outlook for the next week, let alone the rest of February is not going to be decided by one or two operational or even ensemble suites.

    Snapshots in time, and look at how many snapshots in time have already occurred.

    There is very much a retrogression signal in play as previously suggested would appear the other day. I'm afraid its a wait to see how things pan out, but lets deal with the unfolding cold advancing across Europe first and let those details consolidate without flapping 4 X per day.

    I might have one eye myself on the next step ahead, but I'm not going to take the other eye of any of the possibilities in the coming days. Its good to actually be aware of the weather out of your window, and not just the maps 4 x per day on your computer screen

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
    12 minutes ago, Doctor96 said:

    3-4 days of cold and pressure high , a little lights snow for a few , then mild for another week or two . 

    As some on here are about to find out an easterly taking air from south Europe is no good at all . What are the experts seeing that I am not , this looks great for three days then all the potential is blown away . This all predicted clearly 48 hrs ago by gfs , it should not come as a surprise to many today . 

     

    Some absolutely outrageous comments this morning in here it's an embarrassment at times im afraid.

    Anything past 120 is fi at the minute, a warming of the uppers is a good bet for next week, but that means absolutely nothing for anything past tue or Wednesday at the very latest, we await new signals from the models every day, and until the models pick up on the way forwards after the initial south-easterly sun/mon then there's absolutely no point in throwing toys about, we have lots of interesting things taking place at the minute not to mention the strat warming which has only just occurred , along with an active mjo for the first time this season so let's just allow the models come to grips with things rather than thinking a chart at t150 hrs away is a dead cert. 

    Listen to the people in the know, don'tget hung up over every run, I can say this until I'm blue in the face and it won't make any difference what so ever so what's the point. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent

    I am not screaming downgrade, because downgrade from what, it hasn't happened yet, I was pointing out that the majority of the model runs today have gone for a shortening of the projected cold spell(snap).

    Also the case that yesterday METO were tweeting it will last for February (Majority). Someone needs to get a grip of their social media I think.

    I have said before I don't look past 168, and with respects to this time period we have taken a backward step.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I'm with Bring Back 1962-63..exciting times ahead. 

    The models haven't got next week nailed and they are still showing increasingly cold Ely winds with snow showers pushing westwards from the north sea for thurs and especially fri / sat with widespread frosts and ice.

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
    15 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    Nonsense.

    Some real signs of retrogression on the 06z run

    gfs-0-240.png?6

    I'm glad you said that.

    One gfs run and it's toys time.

    Retrograde been a possibility and recent runs are showing this idea gaining momentum.

    I believe a short brief slightly milder spell early next week.

    Then by the end of next week looking north or northeast for our flow.

    Winter by far is not done yet.

    The meto having egg on there face really is a silly statement they spent most of winter being extremely careful in there longer and mid range forecast there's no egg on there face at all.

    Let's not forget once the cold is in then anything can happen.

    I'm expecting to see a large chunk of the vortex over the siberia side prolonging the deep freeze that's gripped Europe for so long.

    Watch this space there's alot more weather to get through yet.

    Perhaps even into March. 

    And there's no classic zonal to be seen.

    Excellent model watching recently best in years and a chilly easterly so a snow flurry I bank that for sure.

    And it's worth noting that the lower heights to our southwest could retreat further west or build and slide to our south allowing stronger feed from the east.

    I know that the finer details are not a done deal.

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    16 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

    Rapidly turning into a damp squib this...this country is well and truly cursed....out of all the stellar model runs we got 1 crap ecm run and that's the one that verifies....typical.

    Yes I agree with you chicken soup, if you really sit down and think about what you just posted, it would drive you mad, mad, mad I tell you!:fool:

     

    Well at least we have our next carrot hanging there, the Greenland high, better than no carrot at all I guess.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    06_129_uk2mtmp.png

    Surely thats wrong? Se ireland colder than se england ? Wonder if gfs is overstaing temps on sunday.

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    Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl

    Its one run, one run!!! off out on my mountain bike for a few hours and hopefully on my return a better 12z suite .

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    Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl

    looking bitterly cold for the 10th , 11th , 12th before a slight warm up early next week.

    tablevtq2_mini.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    18 minutes ago, stodge said:

    It really is annoying when people scream "downgrade" because one OP run isn't showing storm force Easterlies and -20 Uppers where they live.

    Another cold or very cold OP and quite similar to the 00Z output in FI which inspires confidence.

    The retrogression process is slow but it does allow the trough to drop into Scandinavia and offers a N or NE airflow with LPs passing along the Channel and that set up in late February is as good as it gets for those wanting snow - it's a similar set up which has provided lowland snow in late March.

    As for the 2m temperatures, oddly enough the 06Z looks colder than the 00Z next week so we may get up to 5c some days (may), there will be some sharp if not severe frosts and no sign of a blowtorch SW'ly.

     

    Depends if you're happy with a dry, chilly easterly. It's like settling for a 5/10 when you could have had a 10/10.

    Its not one op run, no sustained cold enough for snow is showing... there is a 48/72 hour window when snow flurries are possible but high pressure is too close by for most its a non event in the near term and we are left chasing clean evolutions to cold in FI again.

    To me it's not reactionary to say this, the ensembles and models are in agreement on a 'warm' up in the medium term, although it will be cold at the surface.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Honestly can't believe some of the posts! Here we are, about to see the first real decent cold spell since 2013, and all I'm reading is about 'mild' southeasterlies?!! Whilst it may look like a mild airflow with winds up from Africa, do not let this kid you into thinking it will be. This air will be massively cooled down through the snow filled Alps and the rest of the European landmass.The windchill will make it feel utterly raw. The only way you will get mild weather is from a long fetched SWerly or WSW'erly at this time of the year (which lets face it, 90% of the time we do!)

    Going by how accurate the models have been, and not even having seen the first signs of the cold yet, how on earth can we be certain of what will be happening in 5+ days. 

    Besides, even if we do have to face this possibility, what we see in FI has to be one of the most epic Greenland highs and split vortexes I've ever seen in the history of model outputs. Definitely a 1947 type chart if any come close! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    A quick look at the ensembles  and in the near term  around half on them have quite a bit of snow covering large parts of England  i still think most will see a shower or two.  For whats its worth  and probably not a great deal  but here is the mean.

    gens-21-2-108.png

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    the reason for my fence sitting was based on the model output not being convincing on bringing deep cold across our shores for more than a fleeting visit 

    the uptick in uppers now showing cross model was picked by the eps a few days ago. It didn't sit well with the general euphoria but it has grown over time

    the agencies that do this stuff for a living seem keen to emphasise that this will not be a short snap so I'm comfortable that the telecons will begin to show through (as they are already on the extended ens) and the next fortnight will be cold. Perhaps a few days of continental flow as a transition is considered to be unlikely to be noticed by the general public as not cold!  Whilst we see raw op temps approaching double fig maxes on the ops, the reality will be either that together with overnight frosts or grey and raw. Either way that's probably considered chilly to cold for forecasting purposes. 

    It does seem that this thread will continue to be busy for the next couple weeks at least. 

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    This threads a joke sometimes. Its like the BBC snowatch from 2001. All we need is Bill Farkin & his grebes & seaweed.

    For those with a nervous disposition & the inability to control your emotions I suggest you avoid the GFS & just view the ever reliable UKMO - which is far less volatile.

    Snow for many this weekend, slightly warmer next week but feeling colder - then Greenland high opportunities... 

    UKMO 168- cold SE flow, snow possibilities for the extreme NE/Scotland- also primed for high pressure build over Scotland- 

    IMG_2390.thumb.PNG.516e7fe4412b7b9b365441c333ccee1e.PNG

    have a good day ....

    PS @Gibby- The ECM has been disgraceful post 144 in the last week, the only model coming out of this with any credibility is the UKMO- didnt you base your forecast on the ECM which was clear- no snow for the UK & a SE wind...

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Well there's the most recent Euro4 @ +T48...Showers certainly turning wintry from the off on Thursday morning it would seem.

     

    Edit: As I have said many times along with other posters on here, lets focus on this cold spell, at least its going to happen now and some if not most will see snowfall light, or heavy at times. As for FI, second waves, third waves, they may never happen. So have some fun now while it lasts.:)

    17020906_0706.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
    2 hours ago, TEITS said:

    I did warn a few days ago when the ECM Op was a massive outlier compared to its ensembles that we should be wary of ruling it out. I am however referriing to the SE,ly early next week rather than the ECM +192 to +240 charts. Still think a return of cold from the N is more likely than what the ECM is showing.

    Just add it looks as though I am wrong about the snow shower distribution for Fri/Sat. Does appear the S extent of shower activity could be around Wash/Lincs/Norfolk. The poor old SE which normally does well appears to currently miss out.

     

    well i have to say for this part of lincs the forecast is very poor if its snow you are after, temps of 4c and a north wind equals rain apparently, then temps recovering to 6/7c by monday, so i have a hunch that this cold spell is going to turn into just a damp, cloudy chilly affair for 2/3 days

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    Posted
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(

    Can't understand any negativity? It's nailed on cold from Thursday to Monday with snow very likely in a fair few areas and not just the east coast, this is followed by a settled spell with frosty mornings for next week and then a good chance of a Greenland High setting up shop! In my book this is all good! And the best outlook for cold in many a year :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Cant post charts   but it seems the Gfs 6z  is on the milder side of the ensembles    above the mean.  plus cant erase these charts either GRR

     

     

     

     

    gens-21-2-108.png

    gens-21-2-108.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.

    Looks like the Op is on the milder side for the evolution after the weekend. Although it might not be above average spell as the op shows, i think the likely route is a weak easterly from then on, which would not likely be cold enough for snow. But, things can and do change :-)

    gefs_t2anom_16_eur_1 (8).png

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    GEFS calls a prolonged milder "blip" into serious question. Most members cut off the Mediterranean influence by T216 and a majority of member have east or north-easterly influence once again. 8 out of 22 members even have a cold pool back over the UK.

    The milder T144-T240 on some of the ops is rather like a summer plume - now how many forecasted plumes actually make it to the UK? 

    I may have suggested no snow possible next week, but if I may, I'd like to go back on that please - I rate chances of another cold blast by the end of next week at 30%.

    Roll on further to next weekend and lots of northerlies starting to appear...

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    The transition period from the SE flow to the potential Northerly is interesting in the ENS, several have this occurring much quicker and cleaner than the GFS Op.  By next Fri many have us back in a colder flow coming through Scandy.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

    GEFS calls a prolonged milder "blip" into serious question. Most members cut off the Mediterranean influence by T216 and a majority of member have east or north-easterly influence once again. 8 out of 22 members even have a cold pool back over the UK.

    The milder T144-T240 on some of the ops is rather like a summer plume - now how many forecasted plumes actually make it to the UK? 

    I may have suggested no snow possible next week, but if I may, I'd like to go back on that please - I rate chances of another cold blast by the end of next week at 30%.

    Roll on further to next weekend and lots of northerlies starting to appear...

    Beat me too it, milder blip of longer than 2 days is still in doubt according to the GEFS.  

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