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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


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Posted
  • Location: South Croydon
  • Location: South Croydon
    1 hour ago, Gibby said:

    The ECM is and has not been poor. It constantly verifies greater than GFS and UKMO. Remember a few days ago when it churned out that awful run when it showed High pressure drifting South and cutting off the cold period while all the other models maintained us in the freezer for next week. A couple of days later all models have caught up on the theme albeit in a modified form. ECM has modified its own version of that event but you cannot discount it because it hasn't been showing what you want it too. Wait till after the event then criticize. We've not even got to the cold spell yet so all models could be proved wrong but not until we reach the end of next week. You have to use longer range charts over say Day 5-6 for trends only not for specifics and that day in my mind when ECM pulled out that rogue run was the beginning of a new trend, one which has now spread across all output. From my POV the current trend is for milder conditions early next week but with the possibility of a return to colder conditions later. My reasoning being that is the trend I accomplish by a blend of all models, ensembles etc over this mornings and the last few runs. Heres the latest 10 Day Verification Stats for the 00zs.

    http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

    With regards to verification stats are they for the global output or more geo specific.  The only reason I ask is that if they are for the model output as a whole I'd imagine the UK with its complicated global position would have lower correlations.  Is this a fair comment to make?

    Edit: Sorry ignore I see this has been answered later in the thread.

    Edited by Trom
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    Knee-jerk, a joke!?...if that is what you believe then simply don't follow. I was simply highlighting what the EC ENS are showing and to be honest certain people need to read before commentating, perh

    Yes, I recognise these sage pieces of sentiment so well. The signals are always wrong, and the professionals (and others) who try to present and explain them, when an operational appears to take away

    This is an unusual set up for the UK, hence the model variations. The bigger picture according to seriously knowledgeable people like @Tamara tends to suggest that the hemispheric factors that actuall

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    49 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    I am not sure i agree, unless you can see the verified locations then your simply guessing, Of course when the Pro's say the ECM is the better performing model i tend to side with them.

    What that graph is asking us to do is is the equivalent of rolling a dice and assuming the number you got based on a percentage without knowing the actual outcome. 
     

    I have to disagree as well. The main ridges and troughs are what govern the weather pattern for us so I stand by what I posted. It certainly is not as you suggest equivalent to rolling a dice. Best we agree to disagree.

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

    Yes this is not what many were hoping for - snow chances look minimal, apart from a few flurries for most and then it's followed after a few days by a less cold SSE flow.  If this is all it can muster then it's not a classic cold spell thats for sure.  It also looks very unlikely we will get a Northerly neither at T174, hard to see much change for the better as once this high sinks a little it won't be quick to budge.  I have a feeling we may have a chance late Feb but these have to be really good set ups for prolonged lying snow.

    All down to the Low sitting over Spain and Portugal and height building over the central med. 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    Yes this is not what many were hoping for - snow chances look minimal, apart from a few flurries for most and then it's followed after a few days by a less cold SSE flow.  If this is all it can muster then it's not a classic cold spell thats for sure.  It also looks very unlikely we will get a Northerly neither at T174, hard to see much change for the better as once this high sinks a little it won't be quick to budge.  I have a feeling we may have a chance late Feb but these have to be really good set ups for prolonged lying snow.

    Yes its bloody typical when gfs especially was going for a prlonged cold spell and john hammond was talking about the mjo etc then along came that ecm op run and the longer term is suddenly looking a lot less clear.

    Hopefully some get some snow fri and sat before it turns less cold sun possibly monday..

    All most of us want is a couple of days snowcover!

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

    All down to the Low sitting over Spain and Portugal and height building over the central med. 

    Yep, next Wed for instance has gone from a -2c nightime temp to a +6c.  Wheres the MJO and Strat help when you need it.

    Edited by Ali1977
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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

    I have to disagree as well. The main ridges and troughs are what govern the weather pattern for us so I stand by what I posted. It certainly is not as you suggest equivalent to rolling a dice. Best we agree to disagree.

    But the graph does not show you any information to determine where the Ridges and Troughs are.They certainly don't show you how the UK is affected by it

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Well at least Scotland will do ok out of the 06z. As for the rest of us, if it verifies, after a few flakes here and there just staying cold but not too cold. 

    Uppers, start to go up on Sunday and stay above 0c, this is turning into one of the worst easterlies that I can remember.

    Maybe we can import some of that cold back up here from Greece?

    gfs-0-144.png

    gfs-1-144.png

    gfs-0-192.png

    gfs-1-192.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
    Just now, Trom said:

    With regards to verification stats are they for the global output or more geo specific.  The only reason I ask is that if they are for the model output as a whole I'd imagine the UK with its complicated global position would have lower correlations.  Is this a fair comment to make?

    Oh I dunno. I don't think anyone would disagree that the ECM is the top model and has been for some time. From my own perspective, in Eastern Europe, to me it seems to have chopped and changed a lot each run for the past week or so. It seems to have found some consistency the past few runs though.

    Now, if you change each run, you have more chance of being right than something that broadly stayed the same :-D, I guess. Or maybe, taken as the northern hemisphere as a whole, where it ranks overall better, it may have been better.

    It can be a little bit perception at times as well. We can see all the GEFS evolutions, so we can kinda see what the other options are and how it is thinking things can go. With the ECM, we broadly have the Op run, unless we are lucky enough to get some comments from the others that can see how its suite was.

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

    But the graph does not show you any information to determine where the Ridges and Troughs are.They certainly don't show you how the UK is affected by it

    If you wish to chat then please pm me rather than in the model thread, happy to do that to try and explain

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    Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
    13 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    If you wish to chat then please pm me rather than in the model thread, happy to do that to try and explain

    Would that not be a perfect opportunity to use the new 'slower' model thread. I'm sure many of us would like to read the explanation and reap the benefit of all your years of experience. :)

    There are statistics for Europe - the WMO collate them but only update monthly.

    @johnholmes link for WMO verification.

    http://apps.ecmwf.int/wmolcdnv/scores/mean/500_z

    Edited by Nouska
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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent

    Oh dear, this is going wrong very quickly, now looks like 2-3 days of cold and that is your lot. Meto going to have egg on their faces if it is, as they have strongly gone for cold for rest of feb.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    Yep, next Wed for instance has gone from a -2c nightime temp to a +6c.  Wheres the MJO and Strat help when you need it.

    We do have some Greeny heights building again Next Thurs so this is where we need to be looking I guess , if we are to get a proper severe spell this is where I believe it starts..

    If we are to get 3/4 days of less cold in order to set up a greeny high I'd take that but I'd like to see a quicker transition as per a few ENS members over the last few days.

    Edited by Ali1977
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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    3 minutes ago, Nouska said:

    Would that not be a perfect opportunity to use the new 'slower' model thread. I'm sure many of us would like to read the explanation and reap the benefit of all your years of experience. :)

    There are statistics for Europe - the WMO collate them but only update monthly.

    have you got the link please?

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Hmmm.

    Everything beginning to look very-displaced now in unfavorable location's. 

    The med waa arm linking to Scandinavian hp slashing through cold pooling and taking it to cut off point. 

    However still not convinced' via the track evolution' as the hp cell looks to odd via its mixing out!!.

    Even the 12z today could turn on there head s again. ..

     

     

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl

    AO index goes negative for the first time since 6th Dec 

    ao.obs.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    2 minutes ago, festivalking said:

    Everybody needs to just breath. Its just another run, its the GFS after all! Study the ENS and wait for 12z UKMO before ringing the Samaritans! 

    It's another run with a massive sinking Scandy high, nothing will change next week that will change our weather dramatically, cold SE flow wioth warmer uppers is nailed on, time to look to Greeny for the next cold spell - and enjoy the chances this weekend.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Well i dont know how accurate the Arpege model is but it looks poor for accumulated snow by fri night ( midnight)with little away from scotland, patchy stuff across the pennines and north east england!

    Edit 6z building a greeny high in fi!

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    So another Greeny high forecast FI, now lets look for a quicker transition to this within the ENS - and hopefully get the cold back in by the 3rd week of Feb.

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    Posted
  • Location: Yarm , Middlesbrough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Yarm , Middlesbrough

    3-4 days of cold and pressure high , a little lights snow for a few , then mild for another week or two . 

    As some on here are about to find out an easterly taking air from south Europe is no good at all . What are the experts seeing that I am not , this looks great for three days then all the potential is blown away . This all predicted clearly 48 hrs ago by gfs , it should not come as a surprise to many today . 

     

    Edited by Doctor96
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    Posted
  • Location: blackburn
  • Weather Preferences: heavy snow/ heatwaves
  • Location: blackburn

    Rapidly turning into a damp squib this...this country is well and truly cursed....out of all the stellar model runs we got 1 crap ecm run and that's the one that verifies....typical.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
    16 minutes ago, warrenb said:

    Oh dear, this is going wrong very quickly, now looks like 2-3 days of cold and that is your lot. Meto going to have egg on their faces if it is, as they have strongly gone for cold for rest of feb.

    Hmmmmm yes well it's all so obviously set in stone isn't it....

    Well, I don't know about anyone else but I'm enjoying watching all this unfold. We've been crying out for charts like this for months, and now we've got them. Let's just enjoy it eh - I'm sure there will be upgrades in the output over the coming days.

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    7 minutes ago, Nouska said:

    Included in original post as I should have done when writing.

    thank you but gawd my poor old eyes will have awful trouble trying to work out anything

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    1 minute ago, Doctor96 said:

    3-4 days of cold and pressure high , a little lights snow for a few , then mild for another week or two

    As some on here are about to find out an easterly taking air from south Europe is no good at all . What are the experts seeing that I am not , this looks great for three days then all the potential is blown away . This all predicted clearly 48 hrs ago by gifs , it should not come as a surprise to many today . 

     

    What are you basing 2 weeks of mild weather from?     of course you may be right  but please tell me how you came to that conclusion.

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