Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    13 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

    Been one of the best things I've done, joining this forum! You just never stop learning, and there's always things to talk about and keep you busy! Whether it be snow and blizzards or supercells and MCS's! 

    Seen some mad roller coaster rides in here over the years both containing tears of joy and frustration! 2012/13 had to be up there as the best, regarding the failed Dec 2012 easterly but a recovery during the next month. 

    One thing for sure is that you will learn so much in here if you visit frequently :) 

    anyway, a further upgrade on the 18z and dare I say it, a greenie high! 

    Yep...been on here over ten year and enjoyed it lots amid some joy and lots of disappointment. Done a lot of learning but not to a degree where I would presume to tell those on here I respect that they were talking out their wotsits, like the post I replied to seemed to allude to! 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 3.8k
    • Created
    • Last Reply
    Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
    1 minute ago, NorthNorfolkWeather said:

    No AB I think you are wrong

    until we get proper verification of what will happen this weekend, I don't think anything is set in stone

    Tomorrow and the day after are vital, with an Easterly flow starting to pick up and forcing warmer air away

    to our West, leaving probably only Ireland, Cornwall and Pembrokeshire in milder conditions. But it seems

    every run varies so much that upgrade, downgrade, it seems to change every time, sometimes good, sometimes not

    really doesn't matter very much one way or the other, the weather will do what it will, "Butterfly Effect" nayone?

    Safe to say it will all play out with some being disappointed no matter what the outcome

    Thanks for replying NNW, it's good to have an intelligent debate about these things, I really like to keep an

    open mind amongst all the passion and drama, when it's clear that despite best intentions

    so many folk get caught up in the emotion and potentially miss what's on their doorstep like

    snow that sneaks up unexpectedly while you at out at

    evensong or down the pub or at a book club or similar

    reading about weather in my case, BTW NNW there are some very good books that feature snow in the plot and/or title but anyway back on a 

    serious note let's carry on with this tomorrow if you are around, have enjoyed it very much , it's what this place is all about.

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    GFS short ensembles Central England

    graphe3_1000_256_91___.gifgraphe6_1000_256_91___.gif

    Very chilly with cold uppers for a good few days before the cold uppers disappear during the transition phase (whether that be declining block or retrogression of some sort) but ground temps not really rising with them.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

    Personally im not bothered what the EC monthly, ECM ensembles, GEFS ensembles show and I will explain my theory why.

    This has been a winter when in my opinion the operationals have ruled and the ensembles have proved useless. This is because the winter has been predominately blocked and the models fare much better with bog standard W-E zonal flow. Now the reason for this (my own theory) is normal global weather patterns are programmed into the NWP. Some will tell you the models are just fed the data and then off they run. However all hardware needs software and its the programming of the software why we see different verification stats between the likes of the ECM to the NAVGEM.

    Look for example at the ECM +168. You could not get more opposite to our normal weather pattern if you tried with E,lys spreading all the way into the Atlantic.

    Recm1681.gif

    This is exactly why the reliability of the models is dreadful at the moment. So if the operationals are struggling so much why have any faith on ensembles or even worse the EC Monthly!!

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    The signal for retrogression within GFS ensembles at day 10 is very, very, very strong. Very:D

    However the low resolution means that they want to revert to climatology so many runs find all kinds of Houdini like ways to get the Atlantic out of the blocking straight-jacket while others just light a cigar happy with their work over Greenland.

    Point is, retrograde signals is very strong so it is a battle of the ensemble suites. 

     

    18z central England (not warm)

    graphe6_1000_258_93___.gifgraphe3_1000_258_93___.gif

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk
    7 minutes ago, abruzzi spur said:

    Thanks for replying NNW, it's good to have an intelligent debate about these things, I really like to keep an

    open mind amongst all the passion and drama, when it's clear that despite best intentions

    so many folk get caught up in the emotion and potentially miss what's on their doorstep like

    snow that sneaks up unexpectedly while you at out at

    evensong or down the pub or at a book club or similar

    reading about weather in my case, BTW NNW there are some very good books that feature snow in the plot and/or title but anyway back on a 

    serious note let's carry on with this tomorrow if you are around, have enjoyed it very much , it's what this place is all about.

     

    Cheers AB, been an interesting chat, now time to head for the hills, just

    realised the time and I have to be up at 6:00. So I look forward to tomorrows runs

    and see if they keep up predicting what I think we all hope will be a prolonged cold spell.

    Potential?  Lots of it, but still way too many variables

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

    We are to hope that the 18z has started the trend of model runs that are emerging from the fog and confused chaos of recent days as hopefully he retrogression signal is being picked up here. Yes I'm talking to you ECM

    Of course, that doesn't mean any sort of clear cut route is going to be carved out (far far from it) but this should be the start of more cobra runs appearing on our tablets and mobiles in the coming days and beyond. Of course that will also mean many near miss runs and just plain poor runs in amongst, so a steady nerve will be required as always.This will not a place for the faint hearted!

    The 18z for instance whilst (assuming it is based on having picked up a retrogression signal from tropical forcing) is a great run, goes on build some feasibly solid looking GL based HLB only for it to be all but gone in a few days! Very strange but hey, Lo res will do what Lo res will, so nothing to worry about in that respect.

    A transient mild(er), but unlikely mild in any way, period highly likely IMO after the initial Easterly. As to get from A to C we have to go through B, it's virtually unavoidable!

    With my loaded double dice analogy, we should just need to roll a 5 and above to land (what is always subjectively speaking) a decent cold and snowy spell. Way better odds than the average potential spell, mainly because of the likely larger window(s) of opportunity that I think we are going to be offered here.

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

    If anyone remembers the Jan '87 and Feb '91 cold spells (easterly situations), the reason we got 'prolonged' snow was because there was low pressure nearby (with associated fronts of course). 

    '87 saw systems sweep west to east underneath the block, whilst '91 saw lows move up from France. The both also had a perfectly straight easterly too. 

    So to this end, I am going to be looking for low pressure approaching to the south as that's where we'll get our prolonged snow from in my view, as well as a pure easterly via straight isobars. 

    Don't want much do I!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

    Got to say it is good too see the models have upgraded in the short term so we are getting more of a ENE'y flow with slightly lower pressure and slightly lower thicknesses but I still don't think its enough to bring the classic sunshine and shower set up which for me is what a classic easterly is imo. Any PPN will be dynamic rather than convective however if the air is cold enough and other factors come into play then some places might see some snowfall which is not classed as snow flurries!

    The high thicknesses is probably one of the reasons why temps are forecast to rise as high as 4 or 5C despite cold uppers overhead being quite cold, lack of PPN could also be another factor.

    If there is any clear skies anywhere then some severe frosts are likely but I suspect frosts could well be a bit patchy from region to region because the large amount of cloud that is forecast.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    3 hours ago, SylvainTV said:

    Hello, sorry for the late answer : unfortunately we don't have access to this data freely (and it costs > 100000€ yearly) . Whenever it is available, it will be available on the site the day after :)

    Wow - expensive !

    net weather whip round !

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    GFS & UKMO  00z  cold pool bullseye

    gfsnh-0-120.pnggfsnh-1-114.pnggfs-2-114.png

    UW120-21.GIF?07-05

    Also both have  the pattern a little further West with WAA driven more steeply poleward.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    7 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    GFS & UKMO  00z  cold pool bullseye

    gfsnh-0-120.pnggfsnh-1-114.pnggfs-2-114.png

    UW120-21.GIF?07-05

    And both models have backed the Canadian vortex off ever so slightly 120/144 hours. Still waiting on the 144 UKMO chart though.

    Tense viewing from here now...

    gfsnh-0-144.png

    Can we get upstream to play ball?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    GFS 168 very similar to 18z so good consistency unlike ECM

    Just marginally better oriented and further West so FI will be interesting.

    gfsnh-0-168.pnggfsnh-0-174.png

    Meanwhile GEM makes it a hat trick with the cold pool.

    gemnh-0-120.png?00

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    30 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    GFS 168 very similar to 18z so good consistency unlike ECM

    Just marginally better oriented and further West so FI will be interesting.

    gfsnh-0-168.pnggfsnh-0-174.png

    Meanwhile GEM makes it a hat trick with the cold pool.

    gemnh-0-120.png?00

    So close to a snowmaker Mucka, so close

    gfsnh-0-324.png

    By the very end of the run it still looks like it wants to 'go there' RE cold from the N/NE. Late Feb/early March Cold from the NE is so fun...convective goodness!

    gfsnh-0-384.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    So close to a snowmaker Mucka, so close

    gfsnh-0-324.png

    Yeah but I'm happy so long as the signal remains for Greenland height rises out at day 10.

    I'm sure there will plenty of eye candy among the ensembles and maybe better we aren't seeing it on op to keep expectation manageable (I mean mine :crazy:

    Still gives us nice last frame though.

     

    GEM was a stinker of ECM variety so let's hope ECM keeps improving and GEM is being GEM.

    gemnh-0-192.png?00

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    Yeah but I'm happy so long as the signal remains for Greenland height rises out at day 10.

    I'm sure there will plenty of eye candy among the ensembles and maybe better we aren't seeing it on op to keep expectation manageable (I mean mine :crazy:

    Still gives us nice last frame though.

     

    Very nice last frame indeed...Some bitter cold heading our way after that little Atlantic low clears through and heights rise once more behind.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

    The trend seems to be 3 fold to me, cold weekend, but nothing dramatic, snow showers in the northeast, tilting high draws up less cold uppers next week, then it's look north west to a Ridge forming over Greenland combined with a Arctic blast into Scandinavia just after mid month to hopefully bring something more potent to the uk latter part of Feb.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Some nice Greenland ridges in there at 240/252 hrs

    gensnh-21-5-252.png

    Improves further as we lose ridge to east

    gensnh-21-5-288.png

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.

    Good consistency from the GFS 18 and 0z. Somehow I doubt I'll be saying that about the ECM in a few hours.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    T96 ecm -8 for the uk for almost everyone. 

    IMG_8400.PNG

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    1 hour ago, Mucka said:

    GFS 168 very similar to 18z so good consistency unlike ECM

    Just marginally better oriented and further West so FI will be interesting.

    gfsnh-0-168.pnggfsnh-0-174.png

    Meanwhile GEM makes it a hat trick with the cold pool.

    gemnh-0-120.png?00

    You can make that 4 out of 4

    ECM0-120.GIF?07-12

    Very cold weekend looking likely now - but will the snow go north or south - or both??

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    At T120 and straight easterly.

    IMG_8401.PNG

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

    Bit of a rubbish progression from 120 to 144. UK loses most of the cold air and again Greece gets the bulk of the upper cold. 

    Get your like button ready @Alekos you cheeky chappy

    ECM0-120 (1).gif

    ECM0-144 (5).gif

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

    Bit of a rubbish progression from 120 to 144. UK loses most of the cold air and again Greece gets the bulk of the upper cold. 

    Get your like button ready @Alekos you cheeky chappy

    ECM0-120 (1).gif

    ECM0-144 (5).gif

    Pv is interesting at this time. Less forcing on the high. Might not sink on this run and join the party?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Archived

    This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...