Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Knee-jerk, a joke!?...if that is what you believe then simply don't follow. I was simply highlighting what the EC ENS are showing and to be honest certain people need to read before commentating, perh

Yes, I recognise these sage pieces of sentiment so well. The signals are always wrong, and the professionals (and others) who try to present and explain them, when an operational appears to take away

This is an unusual set up for the UK, hence the model variations. The bigger picture according to seriously knowledgeable people like @Tamara tends to suggest that the hemispheric factors that actuall

Posted Images

For what we are offered in the short term, and what we potentially achieve in the long term this is a great run without ever hitting the nail on the head. It would only take a slight shift in orientations and the 850's would be very different indeed.

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

Huge building of heights showing from earlier in the run.  This at 252 and 276 would have major ramifications down the line. Massive incoming northerly for Europe.  Edit - scuppered by I'm not sure what!  The Greenie high just sort of vanished - quite strange really.

5898fd2a27c6f_gfsnh-0-276(2).thumb.png.3209a12020d1eb0d5b2f21264d9c8274.png

gfsnh-0-252.png

Edited by Ice Day
Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah-yeah FI and all that but if people aren't happy with this as a starting board...that being after resolve of the upcoming cold-poss- snow then give up the ghost. .lol..

Some cracking resolutions I feel incoming outputs. ....

gfsnh-0-240.png

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

The favoured fi route of the GEFS (and eps control btw) 

a fair few  of those  GEFS members ended up with the main thrust to our east as the ridge held close to the uk. We may be seeing the week 2 trend playing out here. Certainly the trend of though tomorrow could easily be different! 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Guys , what appears to be coming  in the next few days appears so little compared to what we thought only yesterday. At the moment not the two weeks of severe cold , but a little cold for three days.  Pressure too high when it is cold for significant snow  and when pressure lowers the mild air comes in.  Pretty awful . 

 

The high is still there next week and after but cool air only from its SE direction. We need the Scandi high much further west and not to sink any further . 

I dont know where the optimism on this board comes from. It is from years of cold and snow starvation .

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Still manages to go wrong and gets cut off by a random short wave.

The trend is good though...

That's GFS low res for you...no way that low behaves like that if that was being modelled within hi-res. All academic anyway as it's the trending we're interested in at those timeframes.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Well very good 18z. Bar a few days of above 0 uppers which will still feel cold  the whole run was cold and blocked  time to dig the winter woolies out . Also of note is the windchill  hopefully might even get a few more upgrades regarding snow potential 

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, NorthNorfolkWeather said:

will it?  won't it?  one of the questions we keep asking.  Me?  I'll see what the weather does, obsessing on every model run will not help

Not sure I'm obsessing TBH NNW

Uppers look volatile at the moment

Much water (hopefully frozen) to go under bridges until we can be sure

Pretending otherwise is unwise I think

Though this has the potential to be the most notable spell of the winter

Ice days are possible for some favoured locations

Even if the upper temps aren't great there's surface cold to think of.

Snow?  Still to be determined.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Doctor96 said:

Guys , what appears to be coming  in the next few days appears so little compared to what we thought only yesterday. At the moment not the two weeks of severe cold , but a little cold for three days.  Pressure too high when it is cold for significant snow  and when pressure lowers the mild air comes in.  Pretty awful . 

 

The high is still there next week and after but cool air only from its SE direction. We need the Scandi high much further west and not to sink any further . 

I dont know where the optimism on this board comes from. It is from years of cold and snow starvation .

There are no words.....:fool:

Back to the models the 18z looks pretty darn good in the reliable time frame if you are of a cold persuasion and is just another variation on the ongoing theme.

Even when we lose the cold uppers on this run it will still feel bitter at the surface.  :cold:

  • Like 9
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Any one got a link to the learning thread?

No he has a got a point,this cold will lead to nothing special.its looking like a cold snap rather then spell,people saying next week will be cold with higher 850's but it wont be that cold,probably 5/6c nothing special is it! It seems people are to bias on here when there's signs of cold coming,always trying to ramp it up.its almost like we lie to ourselfs in suggesting that it will be a lot colder then what is showing.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Well very good 18z. Bar a few days of above 0 uppers which will still feel cold  the whole run was cold and blocked  time to dig the winter woolies out . Also of note is the windchill  hopefully might even get a few more upgrades regarding snow potential 

As the saying goes get the cold in first and the snow potential will come! Because the charts won't be able to show small disturbances in the flow that far out so all to play for as long as the easterly is still there tomorrow! 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

That's GFS low res for you...no way that low behaves like that if that was being modelled within hi-res. All academic anyway as it's the trending we're interested in at those timeframes.

Yes. It was interesting to see how GFS low-res played with the Greenland-scenario. We'll have to wait and see whether this develops in a FI-trend...

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...